As 2019 comes to a close this week and our attention turns toward the start of a new decade, this forecast will be relatively brief due to the fact studios are sitting out the weekend in terms of new releases. Instead, holiday holdovers will remain the focus as the industry ushers in a new year.
To little surprise, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be targeting its third weekend in first place. Although the sequel trilogy finale hasn’t quite lived up to optimistic expectations, its solid run overall still provides enough momentum to help kick off the new year. Jumanji: The Next Level will likely continue to display its strong holding power, while Little Women is showing early signs of a leggy run that should carry through January.
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decline approximately 1 to 6 percent from the same weekend one year ago, when the top 10 was lead by Aquaman and a new release (Escape Room) as part of an overall $119 million top ten for the first weekend of 2019.
Weekend Forecast
Film
Distributor
3-Day Weekend Forecast
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 5
% Change from Last Wknd
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Disney / Lucasfilm
$36,600,000
$454,600,000
-49%
Jumanji: The Next Level
Sony / Columbia
$20,000,000
$226,500,000
-43%
Little Women (2019)
Sony / Columbia
$12,900,000
$57,800,000
-23%
Frozen II
Disney
$11,500,000
$450,200,000
-32%
Spies In Disguise
Fox
$9,000,000
$45,100,000
-33%
Knives Out
Lionsgate
$7,100,000
$126,800,000
-28%
Uncut Gems
A24
$6,700,000
$35,600,000
-30%
Bombshell
Lionsgate
$3,300,000
$23,400,000
-31%
Cats
Universal
$2,600,000
$24,100,000
-46%
Richard Jewell
Warner Bros.
$2,100,000
$21,000,000
-32%
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday
The chart above excludes releases and potential expansions from limited and platform films
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Out in limited release on Christmas Day before nationwide expansion on January 10, Warner Bros.’ Just Mercy tells the timely tale of criminal justice gone awry. Specifically, the film follows civil rights defense attorney Bryan Stevenson—who wrote the memoir on which Just Mercy is based—as he travels from Harvard to the Deep South to defend the wrongly imprisoned. There he meets Walter McMillian, on death row for years following a conviction for murdering a young woman. McMillian has an airtight alibi, and the prosecutor’s main witness isn’t exactly trustworthy. But McMillian is black, the murdered girl was white, and the cops just wanted to put someone behind bars. This is, after all, Alabama—the very county in Alabama where Harper Lee’s To Kill a Mockingbird is set. How’s that for irony?
Bringing this true-life tale to the screen with sensitivity and power is Destin Daniel Cretton, reuniting with his Short Term 12 co-star Brie Larson, playing Stevenson’s colleague at the nonprofit Equal Justice Initiative. Delivering powerhouse performances are Michael B. Jordan (who also produced) as Stevenson and Jamie Foxx as McMillian, the latter burning up the screen in every scene he’s in. In advance of the film’s limited release, Cretton took the time to speak about his latest project.
How did you come to be involved in this project?
[Just Mercy] was a book that was handed to me by our producer, Gil Netter, to see if it was something that I might be interested in. By the time I finished reading the last page, I was so deeply, deeply moved by not only the subject matter, but by the beautiful, multidimensional characters. It was something that I knew I had to be a part of.
When you were doing that initial read, were you already thinking of it in terms of a movie?
You know you’re reading a really good piece of writing when you disappear into it, and your brain turns off and you’re transported to another place. And that’s how I felt reading Just Mercy. I wasn’t analyzing it to see if it was a great movie or not, because it moved me so much.
Was there one aspect of the book that really hooked you?
Bryan talks, particularly toward the end of the book, about hope. He says that hopelessness is the enemy of justice. Without hope, we are not able to attempt to do the things that seem impossible. That was something that really spoke to me [when it came to] taking on a project like this. It’s what I hope some people take from watching this movie. Even though we are living in a time right now when problems seem so big and impossible to fix, I think Bryan Stevenson’s life and work show us that the simple decision of seeing a problem and deciding to do something about it can have results.
I appreciate that the film is hopeful without being overly melodramatic, which is a trap that legal dramas can sometimes fall into.
We were definitely trying to walk the tightrope of representing Bryan’s story in a truthful way without the filmmaking pushing too hard. The true story is mapped out like it is in the movie. Everything that happened, happened. The emotions are extremely high and extremely low. The moment that Walter McMillian was released, the way it’s described in the book, it’s an extremely emotional moment. It was definitely a challenge to find [a tone] that doesn’t shy away from the high emotions that Bryan and these people went through, but also doesn’t feel manipulative to an audience so they can actually participate in those emotions in a more real way.
Just Mercy takes place in Monroe County, Alabama, which is where To Kill a Mockingbird is set. If Just Mercy were a novel, I would almost think that’s too on the nose. But Walter McMillian’s trial really did happen there.
I think it would be a disservice to the movie not to mention it. But yeah, anytime we delved too much into the To Kill a Mockingbird comparison, it definitely started to feel a bit too much. But we hoped a little sprinkling of it lets people understand the irony that Bryan Stevenson was feeling throughout the entire process.
You were born in Hawaii and moved to California. Just Mercy is set, not just in the South, but in the Deep South—which is a very distinct place culturally and certainly has a very specific history when it comes to institutional racism. How did you get into that Southern mindset?
It’s no secret that I stepped into this project as an outsider. But reading Bryan’s book, it became very clear that this story wasn’t only about what’s going on in Alabama. This story felt extremely connected to me.
Bryan starts Just Mercy by saying that you can’t fully understand the problem unless you allow yourself to get really close to it. My personal journey on this project was, honestly, starting from a place of fear and inadequacy. “Who am I to tell this story?” But I had Bryan Stevenson by my side, with my co-writer, Andrew Lanham. We were very close with Bryan throughout the entire writing process. There was no way I would tell this story if that wasn’t the case. Being able to go and visit the places that he talks about in the book and meet people like Anthony Ray Hinton [played by O’Shea Jackson Jr.], who was on death row and in Holman Prison at the same time as Walter McMillian. Being able to, step by step, get closer and closer to this subject was one of the most impactful, eye-opening experiences of my life.
It rang true that the characters who were touting their town’s To Kill a Mockingbird connection were the ones not interested in helping Bryan Stevenson. You see a lot of overt racism in the film, but there’s also stuff that bubbles under the surface.
One thing that is very true when you speak to Bryan Stevenson or talk to anyone who’s doing the type of work he’s doing is that the racism is extremely real. And honestly, we could have pushed those characters into extremes far beyond what we do in the movie, and it would still be real. The flip side is that there are also many Southerners like Eva Ansley [played by Brie Larson], who are fighting for those who are the most vulnerable, whether they are black or white. There are extremely loving, kind, open-minded people all throughout the South. That’s the thing that really gives me hope.
There are a lot of movies about racism in the South in which people are doing overtly racist things, like waving around Confederate flags. And that’s accurate. People still do that. But you run the risk of people seeing those movies and thinking, “Well, I’d never do something like that. So I’m not the problem.” And then they don’t have go through the uncomfortable process of examining their biases.
I think one of the scary realizations about watching a movie like this is the moment when you think, “Oh, if I saw that mug shot of Walter McMillian and the news broadcast that they finally caught the killer of this young, white girl, I probably would not have thought twice about it at that time.” I hope this movie and movies like this make all of us think twice. Every time we see a mug shot and a little blurb, “They caught the guy!” I hope we don’t go immediately to the sense of relief. And we start to question it.
There’s a horrible narrative whenever there’s an instance of police brutality, and people start to examine the victim’s character. Walter McMillian wasn’t a perfect person, but he doesn’t need to be faultless and saintly for his story to be seen as a miscarriage of justice.
Yeah, 100 percent. Bryan Stevenson says there are no rich people on death row. He says that our system treats you better if you are rich and guilty than if you are poor and innocent. And you definitely see that play out in this movie. You see how the poor and vulnerable are taken advantage of by a system that can easily sweep them under the rug or put them on death row because it benefits them. And it’s also interesting to see the way that Tim Blake Nelson’s character, Ralph Myers, gets wrapped up in it and is used as a tool by the people in power to get what they want. [Myers, a career criminal from an impoverished background, was pressured by law enforcement officers to offer a false testimony against McMillian.]
How did Michael B. Jordan come to be involved in the film?
Michael B. was the first person who came on. He was the first person we attached, even before we started writing the script. We sent the book to him, and he was passionate about the project from the start. So he came on both as an actor and as a producer very early in the project.
He’s perfect for the role.
Bryan Stevenson is one of the most compassionate, empathetic people I’ve ever met. And he’s also one of the smartest and most strategic people I’ve ever met. I do think that Michael B. Jordan shares a lot of those same qualities. In order to do the types of performances that Michael B. does, it’s all about his ability to empathize with the characters he’s playing. He is able to connect with Bryan Stevenson on so many levels. It was exciting to watch him do that.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker predictably continued its run as top dog at the box office in the final weekend of 2019, bringing in an estimated $72 million in its sophomore frame. Nonetheless, audiences enjoying their winter break spread the love among both holdovers and a trio of newcomers including Little Women, Spies in Disguise and Uncut Gems.
After enjoying the second-largest Christmas Day haul in box office history with $32.1 million—behind only franchise stablemate The Force Awakens’ $49.3 million)—The Rise of Skywalker fell 59% in its second weekend, improving on the sophomore performance of 2017’s The Last Jedi, which fell more than 67% due to controversy among the series’ core fanbase. Skywalker’s better hold and strong midweek business allowed it to catch up with The Last Jedi, bringing its North American total to $361.8 million versus The Last Jedi’s $368.1 million despite grossing nearly $40 million less in its opening weekend. After just ten days of release, the final entry in the Skywalker Saga stands at No. 7 on the list of top grossers in 2019, ahead of Disney’s Aladdin ($355.5 million) and just shy of Spider-Man: Far From Home ($390.5 million).
Remaining in second place was Sony’s Jumanji: The Next Level, which took in an estimated $35.3 million in its third weekend of release. That represents a substantial 33% weekend-to-weekend jump from last weekend for the family adventure film. The sequel’s $175.4 million gross so far puts it neck and neck with its franchise predecessor Welcome to the Jungle, which had $169 million at the same point in its run and ultimately finished with an impressive $404.5 million in North America thanks to unusually strong legs. If The Next Level continues to boast similar holds in the coming weeks it could potentially reach the same territory, though that kind of performance isn’t generally expected at this point.
Eking out a third-place finish (at least in terms of estimates) was Little Women, which enjoyed a superb debut of $16.52 million in 3,308 locations thanks to overwhelmingly positive reviews, a recognizable title (it’s the seventh film adaptation of the famed novel by Louisa May Alcott, a list that includes two silent film adaptations and one set in modern-day) and only moderate competition for female audiences, with Frozen II the only other current major release specifically targeted at women.
The Sony release has played strongly since opening to an impressive $6.4 million on Christmas Day, pulling in both younger moviegoers attracted by the film’s young cast — including Saoirse Ronan and Harry Potter star Emma Watson — and older audiences lured by the film’s fantastic critical reception (it stands at 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and has made many year-end Top 10 lists), actress Meryl Streep and director Greta Gerwig, whose Lady Bird became one of 2017’s biggest “prestige” hits and was nominated for five Oscars including Best Picture. Through Sunday, the film has brought in a superb $29 million, way above the studio’s conservative $16-$17 million prediction heading into the weekend. With an A- Cinemascore and a promising Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score of 92% to date, look for this one to play strongly well into the new year.
Closely behind in fourth place was Disney’s Frozen II, which brought in an estimated $16.5 million in its sixth weekend of release. The animated sequel now has a powerful $421.3 million in the bank–officially surpassing the first Frozen’s lifetime domestic gross of $400.7 million–with a significant amount of gas still left in the tank as most families remain on holiday break through the first week of January.
Debuting in fifth place was Fox’s animated action-comedy Spies in Disguise, which brought in an estimated $13.2 million from 3,502 locations. That’s about what was anticipated for the Disney-released title, which suffered due to fierce competition from such family-oriented holdovers as The Rise of Skywalker, Jumanji and Frozen II as well as a relative lack of buzz and decent but not great reviews. With a reported budget of $111 million, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the much-delayed film, which was originally slated for release back in January. Since launching with $4.8 million on Christmas Day, Spies in Disguise now stands at $22.1 million through Sunday.
In sixth, Lionsgate’s Knives Out continued its impressive run with an estimated $9.7 million in its fifth weekend of release. That’s a hefty 49% improvement over last weekend, bringing the total for the Rian Johnson-directed mystery to a sensational $110.2 million.
After racking up impressive per-screen averages in just five theaters over the last two weekends, Uncut Gems was unleashed in 2,314 locations and brought in a solid $9.5 million over the three-day period, good enough for seventh place. That’s a better-than-expected debut for the critically acclaimed A24 release, which features a rare, Oscar-buzzed dramatic performance from star Adam Sandler. Notably, exit polls from moviegoers have been rather muted—it only garnered a C+ Cinemascore and has a weak 55% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes—so long-term playability remains a question mark. The film has brought in just over $20 million to date.
Cats fell 27% to an estimated $4.8 million in its second weekend in eighth place, bringing the total for the critically-derided musical to just $17.8 million after ten days of release. The overwhelmingly negative buzz around the Universal release certainly hasn’t done it any favors in a crowded marketplace—though counterintuitively, that also may be what’s drawing some moviegoers to shell out money for it, given rampant social media chatter that has proclaimed the film a new “so-bad-it’s-good” cult classic. That won’t be enough to save the $100 million title’s box office fortunes, though it could potentially lead to a lucrative afterlife on home-viewing formats long-term.
In ninth place, Bombshell eased 8% from its wide debut to bring in $4.7 million in its second weekend of release and third weekend overall, giving the Lionsgate title $15.6 million to date. Finally in tenth, Richard Jewell brought in an estimated $3 million, a slight uptick from last weekend. The Warner Bros. drama now has $16.08 million through the end of its third weekend.
Limited Release:
Universal’s WWI drama 1917 opened to an estimated $570K on 11 screens, good for a per-screen average of over $51K. Since opening on Christmas Day, the critically-acclaimed title has grossed just over $1 million. It goes wide on January 10.
Warner Bros.’ Just Mercy debuted on four screens this weekend and brought in an estimated $110K, good for a per-screen average of $27.5K. Since opening on Christmas Day, the Jamie Foxx-Michael B. Jordan drama has brought in $228K. It opens wide next month.
Neon opened the Alfre Woodard drama Clemency on two screens this Friday and brought in an estimated $37K for a per-screen average of $18.5K.
Overseas Update:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker grossed an estimated $94.3 million overseas this weekend, bringing its international haul to $363 million and its global tally to $724.8 million. Top markets include the U.K. ($51.4 million), Germany ($44.1 million), France ($34.7 million), Japan ($29.2 million) and Australia ($21.2 million). The film’s haul in China — where Star Wars doesn’t enjoy nearly the level of popularity as it does elsewhere in the world — remains muted, with a total of just $17.4 million in the country to date.
Jumanji: The Next Level grossed an estimated $61.6 million overseas, giving the threequel $296 million overseas and $472 million globally to date. The Sony title has grossed $41 million in China, $27.9 million in the U.K., $18.3 million in France, $14.6 million in Russia and $14.4 million in Indonesia.
Frozen II scooped up an estimated $42.2 million from 53 markets overseas this weekend, bringing its international cume to $796.3 million and its global total to $1.217 billion, making it the third highest-grossing animated title of all time worldwide. That total puts it just shy of the first Frozen‘s global tally of $1.274 billion, a number it should easily surpass next month. Top markets to date for the animated sequel include China ($117.1 million), Korea ($93.8 million), Japan ($87.4 million), the U.K. ($59.8 million) and Germany ($50.5 million).
Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker posted another $26.234 million on Friday, bringing its eight-day domestic haul to $316 million. That moves the trilogy-capper within 2 percent of the eight-day tally of The Last Jedi two years ago and sets Rise on course for a three-day sophomore weekend in the range of $70 – 80 million, pending those pesky holiday multipliers. If the film lands on the higher end of that range, it would surpass the 10-day tally of Last Jedi ($368.2 million) by Sunday’s end.
In second place yesterday, Jumanji: The Next Level continued to roll with another $11.7 million, giving it a 15-day tally of $151.9 million. We’re projecting a third weekend north of $33 million.
Frozen II claimed the number three position with $6 million yesterday, giving it $410.8 million to-date domestically. We expect around $16.9 million for the weekend.
Little Women continues to meet breakout expectations with another $5.745 million on Friday and an updated three-day start of $18.2 million. Based on current weekend projections, the film could earn around $16.8 million Friday through Sunday, giving it an overall $29.3 million five-day start.
Spies In Disguise continued its modest debut with $4.632 million on Friday for a three-day start of $13.5 million. Meanwhile, Uncut Gems is enjoying breakout status for A24 as it added $3.315 million yesterday, now standing at $14.84 million domestically. Early weekend estimates for both titles are in the chart below.
This week’s report takes a look at two late February releases currently on the slate for post-Presidents Day weekend debuts on Friday the 21st.
Brahms: The Boy 2
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
PROS:
The first film was a sleeper success on a low budget, earning $35.8 million domestically.
Katie Holmes steps in as the star here, which could elevate the sequel’s profile a bit.
CONS:
Opening in the midst of numerous horror/thrillers early in the year could limit potential, especially since it’s been four years since the original’s solid run. Some momentum may have been lost.
Call of the Wild
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million
PROS:
Harrison Ford’s presence could elevate appeal among adult audiences and parents for this family-friendly adaptation.
Initial metrics from the recent trailer indicate strong sentiment and the possibility of a leggy run.
CONS:
Sonic the Hedgehog‘s word of mouth could be key to watch for given the crossover appeal to family moviegoers.
Estimated Location Counts
The Grudge (2,500 on January 3)
1917 (3,200 wide on January 10)
Just Mercy (2,500 wide on January 10)
Like a Boss (3,000 on January 10)
Underwater (2,400 on January 10)
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
Release Date
Title
3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range
3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast
% Chg from Last Week
Domestic Total Range
Domestic Total Forecast
% Chg from Last Week
Distributor
1/3/2020
The Grudge (2020)
$10,000,000 – $20,000,000
$11,000,000
$25,000,000 – $45,000,000
$25,000,000
Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020
1917 (Wide)
$20,000,000 – $25,000,000
$24,000,000
$75,000,000 – $100,000,000
$94,000,000
Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020
Just Mercy (Wide)
$13,000,000 – $18,000,000
$14,000,000
$50,000,000 – $70,000,000
$59,000,000
Warner Bros.
1/10/2020
Like a Boss
$15,000,000 – $20,000,000
$17,000,000
$45,000,000 – $60,000,000
$51,000,000
Paramount
1/10/2020
Underwater
$5,000,000 – $10,000,000
$6,500,000
$12,000,000 – $25,000,000
$18,000,000
Fox
1/17/2020
Bad Boys for Life
$21,000,000 – $31,000,000
$25,000,000
$55,000,000 – $75,000,000
$64,000,000
Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020
Dolittle
$30,000,000 – $50,000,000
$40,000,000
$120,000,000 – $170,000,000
$145,000,000
Universal
1/24/2020
The Gentlemen
$10,000,000 – $15,000,000
$12,000,000
$30,000,000 – $50,000,000
$38,000,000
STX
1/24/2020
The Last Full Measure
n/a
n/a
Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020
Run
n/a
n/a
Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020
The Turning
$10,000,000 – $15,000,000
$14,000,000
$25,000,000 – $40,000,000
$38,000,000
Universal
1/31/2020
Gretel and Hansel
$5,000,000 – $10,000,000
$5,500,000
$10,000,000 – $20,000,000
$11,000,000
United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020
The Rhythm Section
$10,000,000 – $15,000,000
$12,000,000
$30,000,000 – $45,000,000
$38,000,000
Paramount
2/7/2020
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
$40,000,000 – $60,000,000
$49,000,000
$100,000,000 – $150,000,000
$125,000,000
Warner Bros.
2/14/2020
Fantasy Island
$17,000,000 – $22,000,000
$17,000,000
$44,000,000 – $57,000,000
$44,000,000
Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020
The Photograph
$13,000,000 – $18,000,000
$15,000,000
$30,000,000 – $42,000,000
$35,000,000
Universal
2/14/2020
Sonic the Hedgehog
$20,000,000 – $30,000,000
$26,000,000
$65,000,000 – $100,000,000
$86,000,000
Paramount
2/21/2020
Brahms: The Boy 2
$7,000,000 – $12,000,000
$8,000,000
NEW
$15,000,000 – $28,000,000
$17,800,000
NEW
STX
2/21/2020
Call of the Wild
$15,000,000 – $20,000,000
$15,000,000
NEW
$50,000,000 – $65,000,000
$50,000,000
NEW
Fox
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CGV Songpa SphereX has become the second CGV screen with Flexound Augmented Audio™ in every seat. Based on audience feedback from CGV’s first Flexound cinema, located in CGV Gold Class Wangsimni, CJ CGV and CJ 4DPLEX decided to continue their relationship with immersive seating company Flexound.
This new SphereX Songpa cinema, which has 73 Flexound-equipped seats, opened on Christmas Eve with Cats.
CJ 4DPLEX and Flexound are in talks to expand the collaboration further in more CGV theatres, as well as incorporating Flexound Augmented Audio™ with 4DX and ScreenX.
Flexound Augmented Audio™ is a Finnish audio innovation that is gaining recognition in different industries globally. “The original idea about multisensory listening started from therapy for autistic children. Soundwaves are vibration that can be heard with our ears, but sound can also be perceived with our skin and body. Why only use our fairly bad human hearing, if we can enjoy wonderful movies and music also with our sensation of touch?” asks Flexound CEO Mervi Heinaro.
Fresh off the third highest debut in December history, and the third best weekend of 2019, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker now sets its sights on the lucrative holiday corridor in front of its feet over the next two weeks.
Disney reported on Tuesday morning that the blockbuster trilogy-capper added $29.2 million domestically on Monday, lifting its four-day total to $206.6 million. Yesterday’s earnings represented an encouraging 27 percent drop from Sunday and gave the film the sixth best Monday gross in history.
Christmas Eve will naturally see a sharp decline for Star Wars and all other films in release before significant boosts return on Christmas Day Wednesday and beyond. In fact, Rise of Skywalker is currently on pace to soar past The Last Jedi‘s $27.5 million Christmas Day gross for the second best of all-time on the holiday — behind only The Force Awakens‘ $49.3 million.
By Thursday’s end, the film may be sitting around $285 – 300 million stateside, at which point it would remain on a possible trajectory to score a $100 million second frame. It’s not a foregone conclusion, and that’s not the marker for a strong hold by any means, but it would become only the seventh film in history to reach nine digits in a sophomore weekend if it does. (The Last Jedi did not accomplish such a feat, earning $71.6 million in its comparable frame with Christmas Eve deflating earnings somewhat.)
Bottom line: Despite opening 19 percent lower than Last Jedi last weekend, Rise of Skywalker will be making up a lot of ground in the days ahead and looks to potentially match the former’s 10-day total of $368.2 million by the end of the coming weekend — if not exceed it. Though some point to the film’s franchise-low review score from critics and “B+” CinemaScore, the verified audience score on Rotten Tomatoes has remained at 86 percent since opening day.
In a strong second place this weekend is expected to be the third inning of Jumanji: The Next Level. The sequel continues to hold up well even with Star Wars in the market as audiences come out for multiple holiday movie viewings. Another $20 – 25 million+ is certainly on the table for the hit sequel.
Sony counter-programs this week with the anticipated Little Women remake from Greta Gerwig. We continue to expect some breakout potential for the generational adaptation thanks to excellent reviews, modest competition for female audiences of all ages, and the prestige aura created by the film’s cast and crew. Sony is cautiously expecting a five-day start of $16 – 17 million (Wednesday through Sunday), although the weeks ahead into January will be very favorable in terms of projected staying power — so, despite our more bullish forecasts, a debut close to Sony’s range would still position it for success.
Meanwhile, Disney will release Fox’s Spies In Disguise with expectations of a $20 million five-day bow. We’re actually more conservative, however, given the lingering impact of Star Wars, Jumanji: The Next Level, and Frozen II — all of which will boast strong appeal to families throughout the holiday week.
Lastly, Uncut Gems expands into wide release following its strong platform launch over the past two weekends. Forecasts for prestige titles are notoriously challenging around holiday corridors such as this, but a three-day weekend north of $5 million seems more than achievable given the current buzz around Adam Sandler’s performance and the film itself.
Weekend Ranges
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2nd weekend) ($85 – 105 million 3-day)
Little Women ($25 – 40 million 5-day)
Spies in Disguise ($14 – 20 million 5-day)
Uncut Gems ($5 million+ Expansion)
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase approximately 14 to 19 percent from the same weekend one year ago. At the time, Aquaman lead the box office with $52.1 million in its second weekend as part of an overall $165.7 million top ten aggregate.
Weekend Forecast
Film
Distributor
3-Day Weekend Forecast
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 29
% Change from Last Wknd
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Disney / Lucasfilm
$100,300,000
$400,500,000
-43%
Jumanji: The Next Level
Sony / Columbia
$24,200,000
$154,100,000
-9%
Little Women (2019)
Sony / Columbia
$18,000,000
$33,500,000
NEW
Frozen II
Disney
$17,000,000
$421,100,000
31%
Spies In Disguise
Fox
$8,900,000
$16,000,000
NEW
Knives Out
Lionsgate
$8,000,000
$105,300,000
24%
Cats
Universal
$5,700,000
$18,800,000
-14%
Uncut Gems
A24
$5,300,000
$9,200,000
2097%
Bombshell
Lionsgate
$4,400,000
$14,800,000
-14%
Richard Jewell
Warner Bros.
$2,700,000
$15,100,000
5%
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday
The chart above excludes releases and potential expansions from limited and platform films
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The Grand Rex was born with Jacques Haïk, a pioneer of French cinema and one of its most important producers and distributors of the era. After 20 months of construction, on December 8th 1932, the Grand Rex was inaugurated in the second arrondissement of Paris. Inspired by New York’s Radio City Music Hall and the American concept of atmospheric theaters, the Grand Rex’s auditorium makes its patrons feel like they’re in a Mediterranean courtyard contemplating a starry sky overhead.
The Grand Rex is Europe’s largest cinema, spanning more than 21,527 square feet and boasting a 98-foot-tall ceiling. After its opening, it became a destination for masses of moviegoers. In fact, it was not uncommon for French people living outside the capital to come to Paris to admire the building and attend a screening.
But as the novelty subsided, the Grand Rex entered a much more difficult period. It filed for bankruptcy and was on the verge of extinction before being acquired by Gaumont and, a year later, by Jean Hellmann, the grand-father of Alexander Hellmann, the theater’s current owner.
During the war, the cinema was commandeered by the Germans and turned into a “Soldaten-kino,” a theater for soldiers, showing Nazi propaganda films. Following the liberation of Paris, the Grand Rex stopped its screenings for multiple months in order to house repatriated prisoners of war.
It was only after November 1945 that the cinema reconnected with the art of film. Just a year later, thanks to the successes of Bathing Beauty and Mr. Orchid, the cinema once again welcomed large crowds of moviegoers.
The cinema often hosts prestigious, star-studded premieres. From Titanic to Avatar, through Hitchcock’s The Birds in 1963, Star Wars and The Artist, the Rex welcomes high-profile guests like Jean Dujardin, George Cooney, and Mylène Farmer. The theater also welcomed Britney Spears and her feature film Crossroads in 2002, Vin Diesel for XXX that same year, and Daniel Craig and Eva Green for the premiere of Casino Royale in 2006. Big stars and big movies keep coming, decade after decade, in Paris’ major cultural center.
The Grand Rex’s façades and roofs, as well as its auditorium and decor, are listed as historic monuments. In 1988, the Grand Rex opened its 3,229 square foot “Grand Large” screen, the biggest non-Imax screen in Europe. Conceived and created by Luc Heripret, the screen was inaugurated with Luc Besson’s The Big Blue.
The Grand Rex remains up to date with the latest cultural trends. It screens TV shows, like the finales of “Game of Thrones” and “The Boys” in addiiton to a marathon screening of the latest season of “Stranger Things” (between 5:30 pm and 6:30 am). The theater continues to host non-cinema events, mostly music shows. New Order recently reunited on its stage, and superstar Madonna will perform there next year. The cinema also organizes special screenings and previews in collaboration with Disney, as in the case of Coco in 2017.
Today, the auditorium can welcome an orchestra and, between its mezzanine and second balcony, 2,700 guests. 1,25 million people visit the Grand Rex every year.
When your movie opens to $177.3M, it’s usually hard to call that a disappointment. But Disney’s Star Wars:The Rise of Skywalkercame in at the absolute bottom range of pre-release projections, noticeably below its Saturday weekend estimate, and well below its predecessors’ openings.
Rise opened -28.4% behind the trilogy’s original installment The Force Awakens and -19.3% behind predecessor The Last Jedi. Unadjusted for inflation, Rise is the 12th-biggest opening weekend ever, down from third- and fourth-biggest for Force and Last.
Rise also started near the bottom range of pre-release projections, most of which were around $190M. (On one popular box office prediction website, the lowest that any user predicted was $175M, only slightly below the actual result.)
Lastly, it debuted below the $185M to $195M range suggested by its $90M opening Friday. Indeed, its 1.97x weekend-to-Friday multiple was noticeably lower than 2.08x for Force and 2.10x for Last. This implies poor word of mouth caused a sharp dropoff after opening night.
Globally, the film debuted with $375.3M. That’s -29.0% behind Force and -16.7% behind Last. Unadjusted for inflation, it’s the 17th biggest global opening ever, behind 4th- and 8th-biggest for Force and Last.
America: Not a Cat Person
Universal’s adaptation of hit Broadway musical Cats had no claws at the box office, earning only $6.6M for fourth place. Most pre-release projections predicted about double that, around $12M.
Compared to other recent December musicals, Cats started -24.8% behind The Greatest Showman and -34.6% behind the wide expansion of La La Land.
Yet while many such December musicals have been slow burners which opened low but stayed in theaters for months, ultimately being financially successfully, don’t look for Cats to accomplish the same feat.
The film was so savaged, particularly for its visual effects, that Universal announced it’s taking the unprecedented step of releasing a visually-improved version to theaters beginning next Sunday.
Elsewhere at the Box Office
Lionsgate’s political dramedy Bombshell expanded wide this weekend, earning $5.1M in sixth place. Compared to other recent December political dramedies, it began -32.4% behind Vice and -51.4% behind The Big Short.
Last weekend’s leader, Sony’s fantasy comedy sequel Jumanji:The Next Level dropped -55.9% to second place.
A comparison here isn’t exact, because predecessor Welcome to the Jungle opened one weekend later in the calendar. As a result, its sophomore frame was the post-Christmas weekend, when most films’ earning actually increase. Such was the case with Jungle, which increasing +38.3%, making a comparison of sophomore frames inexact.
Limited Releases
A24’s Uncut Gems earned the best per-theater average for a second weekend with $48,246, beating Riseof Skywalker with $40,259.
Both The Last Jedi with $51,987 and The Force Awakens with $59,982 posted the top per-theater average of their respective opening weekends.
Cohen Media Group has acquired the venerable U.K. art house theater chain Curzon Cinemas, in the first overseas exhibition venture for U.S. real estate billionaire Charles S. Cohen.
The deal, announced today by Cohan and Curzon CEO Philip Knatchbull, encompasses Curzon’s 13 locations in the U.K. and its Curzon Artificial Eye distribution division and Curzon Home Cinema streaming business. Financial details were not disclosed.
“Among exhibitors and distributors of great films, there are few names in the international marketplace as important as Curzon and Curzon’s Artificial Eye,” said Cohen, whose company last year acquired Landmark Theatres and also produces and distributes specialty films. “We are thrilled to unite with this honored brand and I look forward to working with Philip and Curzon’s highly experienced senior management team. Together, we will carry forward the Curzon brand with plans to expand it in a thoughtful and measured way.”
Curzon debuted in 1934, when Harold Wingate opened its first cinema in Mayfair, a location still in operation as a two-screen art house theater. Curzon Artificial Eye, founded in 1976 and acquired by Curzon in 2006, has a library of more than 400 films and releases roughly 20 new theatrical titles and 30 DVD and Blu-ray titles in the U.K. each year.
“The Curzon brand is uniquely placed to take advantage of the rapidly changing landscape in film and is easily transportable and scalable outside the U.K.,” said Knatchbull. “With Charles Cohen’s proven dedication and track record for quality film together with his recent acquisition of the Landmark theatre chain and now the addition of Curzon, he has created an important group of companies with opportunities to grow a unified platform for an ever-increasing demand for filmed content. I look forward to helping Charles fulfill that potential.”
Roger Wingate will retire as chairman and will end his family’s longtime association with the company, with Cohen taking over his post.
“Curzon has been present throughout my entire life,” said Wingate. “I will miss it, but am confident that its future is in good hands.”
The Curzon acquisition deal was negotiated by Lisbeth (Libby) Savill, a partner in the London office of Latham & Watkins and David Fogel acting on behalf of Cohen. Jonathan Goodwin and Julian Culhane of Alvarium Investments were Curzon’s financial advisers in the transaction. Latham & Watkins served as legal advisers to Cohen Media Group; Fox Williams represented Curzon sellers.
Earlier this year, Boxoffice Pro partnered with Celluloid Junkie to present the fourth-annual list of Top Women in Global Exhibition, published in our CinemaCon issue. Throughout 2019 and early 2020, Boxoffice Pro will continue to honor the women who have an immeasurable impact on the exhibition industry with a series of in-depth profiles.
Headed by CEO Jannicke Haugen, Scandinavia’s Nordisk Film has made strides into the future with their installation of a 4DX screen in Oslo’s Ringen Cinema. The success of that theater led to the planned installation of an additional nine 4DX screens by the end of 2021. The chain was also an early adopter in the growing world of esports; on November 10, they invited guests to watch the League of Legends world championship through their EsportBio concept. Nordisk Film currently has 22 theaters across Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.
What have been the highest-grossing films in Norway so far in 2019, both among Hollywood imports and local titles?
The highest-grossing films so far in 2019 are The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame. The highest-grossing Norwegian film is The Ash Lad: In Search of the Golden Castle.
What are the biggest challenges facing theatrical exhibition in Norway?
Competition from other out-of-home activities is obviously one of the biggest challenges we face. But at least we can deal with this ourselves by improving our own products. The most frustrating challenges are the external ones, such as weather and [the quality of] films. As soon as we get some sun and warm weather in Norway, it is practically impossible to get people into the cinemas.
Earlier this year, it was announced that nine 4DX screens will be coming to Nordisk, in addition to the screen already in place at the Ringen location. Is it fair to say, then, that Norwegian audiences are enthusiastic about immersive seating?
Yes. The screen we have in Oslo is extremely popular. The occupancy is far above the estimates we initially had and above anything else we have seen here. We are currently adding two more 4DX screens in Tønsberg and Bergen and additional screens in Denmark as well. Hopefully, they will be as popular as the one in Oslo.
What other high-end amenities—for example, dine-in theaters with custom food/drink menus, recliner seats, or PLF screens—are particularly popular among Norwegian audiences?
Recliner seats are very popular. Our new cinema in Bergen [is] full-recliner. We have very strict alcohol policies in Norway, but we are allowed to sell alcohol in some of the cinemas targeted to an adult audience. This is very popular, and people really enjoy a glass of wine at the cinemas.
The most spectacular cinema in Norway is Colosseum, where the largest screen has 888 seats and an amazing dome. A couple of years ago we rebuilt the screen and brought life to the dome, with projection mapping and customized dome shows. We still get extremely positive feedback from our customers. A lot of people prefer this legendary cinema over the new builds.
What does Nordisk Film do to support local filmmaking?
In addition to the 2.5 percent of the ticket revenues that all Norwegian cinemas pay to the Film Institute, Nordisk Film supports local filmmaking through both distribution and production. This is done through other entities than the cinemas, though.
How much of Nordisk Film’s yearly box office would you say comes from local productions?
Our aim is 25 percent of the yearly box office, but [that] depends on the films. In 2019, we will unfortunately not be close to this.
When did Nordisk launch your EsportBio concept? How many theaters does it operate in, and what has customer response been like?
EsportBio launched in Norway in 2016 and has been tested out in both Colosseum and Ringen in Oslo. Response from our guests has been superb. There is no doubt that esport in cinema will be a winner in the years to come.
What’s your proudest achievement from your time so far at Nordisk Film?
I am proud that we had the guts to invest big in 4DX, despite the warnings about not being able to make it profitable in a small market as Oslo. I am also proud to be part of a company that was willing to invest in projection mapping and customized dome shows at Colosseum. In this business, we tend to define a cinema’s quality based on seat comfort and technical specifications. At Colosseum, we invested huge amounts in the larger experience. This has been profitable from day one. And, of course, I am proud that our staff provides excellent service on a day-to-day basis.
What advice would you give to women entering the theatrical exhibition business?
I think women should find their own paths and formulas for success based on their own qualities. My personal experience is that the business is much more complex than I dreamt of. They should at least be aware of the complexity before entering the business. Which obviously also applies to the men in the same position.
How would you evaluate the progress women have made in the exhibition business in Scandinavia over the past few years?
In our company, we have as many women in the management team as we have men. I am not impressed of the progress in the business, though. There are still too many men compared to women. I think most companies would benefit from a better mix.
How did you come to be the CEO at Nordisk Film? What has your career path looked like?
I have been working at Egmont—the owner of Nordisk Film—for many years. The last position was CEO Nordic at Egmont Kids Media. After a while, I wanted to cut back on traveling, and the position at Nordisk Film opened up. It turned out to be even more exciting and complex than I’d dreamt of.
Can you describe a formative moviegoing experience from your childhood?
I have a lot of memories from the cinemas. I remember my first movie date; I snuck my glasses on in the dark, because I did not want my date to know that I wore glasses. I remember learning to dance by watching Grease and Saturday Night Fever, and I remember buying tickets to Kramer vs. Kramer for my parents when they decided to divorce. I have so many memories that the list could be never-ending.
Jannicke Haugen Pull Quote:
“The perfect movie night starts at one of our cinemas, where we watch a touching film while enjoying a glass of wine. Afterwards, we discuss the film with a good meal at a local restaurant.”
