Pointing to a hunger for new theatrical content among family audiences that have had few options aside from The Croods: A New Age and The War With Grandpa over the last several months, Warner Bros.’ Tom & Jerry debuted with an impressive $13.71 million this weekend, blowing way past expectations to become the second-highest opening weekend of the pandemic after Wonder Woman 1984, which grossed a $16.7 million in its debut frame back in December.
Tom & Jerry’s better-than-anticipated debut is even more remarkable given that just 45% of domestic theaters are currently open at limited capacity and that the film debuted simultaneously on HBO Max, giving viewers the option of staying home to watch the film as opposed to paying a premium to see it in theaters. Its strong debut serves as a shot in the arm for the exhibition industry, suggesting that families with children, at least, are raring to return to the multiplex as vaccinations continue to ramp up and the pandemic enters its waning stages (with the caveat that case counts, despite significant declines in recent weeks, remain dangerously high in the U.S.)
Promisingly, audiences who turned out for Tom & Jerry this weekend largely enjoyed it; the film’s CinemaScore is an A- overall and an A+ for audiences under 18, while its PostTrak score is an 81 Index and 4 stars with a 79% Total Positive rating for general audiences and an 85 Index, 4 ½ stars and a 90% Total Positive rating among children. The studio reports that the top 10 DMA markets are, in order, Dallas, Greater New York Metro, Chicago, Houston Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Atlanta, Detroit, Denver and Boston. (Notably, theaters in New York City are slated to reopen with limited capacity next Friday, March 5.)
In some ways, Tom & Jerry’s successful debut this weekend shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. Over Thanksgiving weekend, with COVID-19 case counts in the U.S. beginning to reach critical levels, The Croods: A New Age opened to a robust (for the pandemic) $9.71 million and, aside from a substantial drop in its sophomore frame, the animated sequel continued to post strong holds over subsequent weeks. The War With Grandpa — the family comedy starring Robert De Niro that opened to $3.62 million in mid-October — has had a similarly leggy run, having remained in the top 10 for 20 straight weeks. In short: Parents in many parts of the country have shown a willingness to brave potential COVID-19 risks at the multiplex to provide a two-hour window of entertainment for their children.
That said, more risk-averse parents also appear to have helped lift the film this weekend, as Warner Bros. notes that private “Pod” bookings helped boost the film’s weekend gross considerably, with 10,000 total bookings so far and about half of those for opening weekend.
What’s interesting to consider is that, in non-COVID times with normal studio release schedules in place, Tom & Jerry may have come off as something of an afterthought in the theatrical landscape; unlike The Croods: A New Age, the 80-year-old brand isn’t an instantly recognizable title to the kids of today. What’s also notable is the film’s dismal 25% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which may have served to dampen turnout had more theatrical options been available. In the current climate, though, Tom & Jerry has become an unlikely highlight in a catastrophic year for the exhibition industry as a whole – and, with vaccines being administered to more than a million Americans per day, a harbinger of brighter days to come.
Tom & Jerry‘s success couldn’t help but put a damper on The Croods: A New Age, which suffered a steeper decline than usual after facing its first real competition since its November release. Bringing in an estimated $1.21 million — a 30% dip from last weekend’s gross — the total for the Universal/Dreamworks Animation title now stands at $52.39 million through the end of its 14th weekend.
Finishing in third place was Warner Bros.’ The Little Things, which dipped 20% to an estimated $925k in its fifth weekend. The Denzel Washington thriller has $12.91 million to date.
Warner Bros.’ third film in the top 5, Wonder Woman 1984, finished in fourth with an estimated $710k, easing just 11% from last weekend’s gross and giving the superhero sequel $43.62 million so far.
Open Road’s The Marksman rounded out the top five with an estimated $700k in its seventh weekend, down just 10% from last weekend’s total. The Liam Neeson thriller has $12.35 million to date.
OVERSEAS UPDATE
Building on its sturdy debut in North America, Tom & Jerry posted an estimated $19.4 million overseas from 35 markets this weekend, including a strong $12.3 million opening in China and a $3.3 million debut in Russia. The film’s international total now stands at $25.1 million and the global cume is $38.8 million.
Multinational cinema circuit Kinepolis reported its 2020 financial year results this week, providing a glimpse into the full scale of disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Box office revenues across the circuit fell by 70 percent, with concessions sales declining by the same margin, in a year that challenged each of the group’s 56 European and 55 North American locations.
Kinepolis was outpacing its 2019 admissions by 12 percent up to March 12, when its numbers, along with the rest of the cinema industry’s, plunged due to the onset of the pandemic. The circuit finished the year with a total of 12.1 million visitors, 73 percent lower than its original projections and 70.1 below 2019 levels. The circuit’s best performing market in 2020 was the Netherlands (-55.7%) where looser restrictions and a solid slate of local productions helped mitigate losses over the second half of the year.
“With a liquidity reserve of €171 million at the start of this year, Kinepolis can stand firm for quite some time and we can say with certainty that our company will survive this crisis,” said Eddy Duquenne, CEO of Kinepolis Group, in the company’s year end financial report.
“Everyone is waiting for the reopening of the cinemas. Both the U.S. studios, who continue to postpone their blockbusters because of the importance of cinemas in the life cycle of a film, and our customers, who need to be able to relax away from home. And our employees, who have been unemployed for a long time, are also eager to get back into action. We are convinced that we can reopen safely and thereby contribute to everyone’s well-being, he said”
Kinepolis has stayed busy during the pandemic by advancing construction on new construction projects in the Netherlands (Kinepolis Haarlem, Leidschendam), France (Metz Waves), and Canada (Edmonton Tamarack). Moreover, the circuit will once again be permitted to open new locations in its home market, Belgium, as early as August 21, following clearance from government authorities.
The circuit also used the downturn during the pandemic to test several initiatives it has since enacted in other markets. “Kinepolis on Tour,” was introduced over the summer, a series of pop-up drive-ins at more than ten locations that welcomed more than 16,000 vehicles. The concept’s success in 2020 will see it expand in 2021, beginning over the Easter holidays and running through the summer.
In Canada, Kinepolis’s Landmark Cinemas chain launched a home delivery service for concessions items through Uber Eats. That concept’s success was then applied to the European market, with Belgium’s Kinepolis Antwerp location used as the first test site in December 2020. The circuit will expand home delivery of concessions to Belgian locations in Kortrijk, Leuven, Ghent, and Liège later this year.
Kinepolis launched a private theater rental program in its U.S. circuit, Michigan’s MJR Digital Cinemas, in October 2020. Successful results saw it make its way overseas, premiering in Luxembourg locations in February 2021 as “Kinepolis Privé.” A further expansion is planned for Belgium later this year.
It’s been another rollercoaster week for the film industry. Two major announcements with a wide range of implications are still being absorbed by anyone and everyone with an interest in this sector of the entertainment ecosphere.
On Monday, the long-awaited greenlight for New York City’s movie theaters to reopen was finally given by Governor Andrew Cuomo. Effective March 5, the city’s cinemas will be allowed to operate at 25 percent capacity seating, with no more than 50 people per auditorium. It’s one of the two biggest moviegoing markets in the country, one that will finally show signs of life after eleven months in shutdown mode.
The second development came Wednesday during an Investor Day presentation. Focusing largely on parent company Viacom’s rebranding and revitalization of CBS All Access into the Paramount+ streaming platform, another piece in the puzzle of theatrical windows was addressed: The studio will commit its releases to exhibition exclusively for 30 to 45 days before making them available on their streamer.
In between all of this, there are still valid questions about the concreteness of any plan that involves a return to a full-scale exhibition presence. Still, we continue to see relatively little movement on the part of studios when it comes to big release delays as they play the long game and wait out the end of this devastating winter.
Simultaneously, moviegoers are growing more confident about the potential of going back to theaters as vaccines become accessible throughout this year. According to a recent NRG survey, consumers have never been as optimistic about such a return during the pandemic as they are right now.
For more indication of the light at the end of the tunnel, Sony Pictures and Marvel Studios this week ignited the marketing engine for the recently titledSpider-Man: No Way Home — a film still dated for release this Christmas (after three other MCU movies), and one which has more-than-considerable potential to become the year’s biggest box office hit.
With that summary in mind, let’s break things down a little bit more.
New York City’s Cinemas to Reopen: What Does That Mean?
This is a significant step forward in the long process toward economic recovery for both theaters and studios. Despite the number of low-to-mid profile films that have skipped theaters for streaming releases during the pandemic so far, studios have by-and-large delayed, delayed, and delayed some more when it comes to their biggest potential moneymakers, tentpoles, and franchises.
Regal Cinemas itself cited the need for New York City and Los Angeles to come back online — with steady product — before they can deem their theaters to be in a position of operating at an acceptable level. That’s why, after a brief re-opening period early last fall, Regal turned their lights back off temporarily until such developments occurred.
It remains to be seen when Regal resumes operations even in a limited capacity following New York City’s announcement, particularly with Los Angeles still in a general state of flux as questions continue swirling as to when its own cinemas will be allowed to reopen. Regal made it clear that they’ll wait for the City of Angels with an official statement on February 25.
When it comes to the city itself, California Governor Gavin Newson hasn’t laid out a clear timeline or target date for L.A.’s movie houses to reopen, but Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi prognosticated on February 26 that it could happen within the next two to four weeks. Still, nothing is confirmed right now.
Between the pair of them, New York City and Los Angeles account for up to 15 percent of the domestic grossing market from a box office standpoint, on average. Some films (such as arthouse and indie titles) skew higher. Others, such as four-quadrant blockbusters and family films, see their earnings more widely dispersed throughout North America’s urban and rural areas alike.
For half of that crucial equation to come back on the playing field, vaccine injections from Moderna and Pfizer’s available doses need to continue improving while Johnson & Johnson also progresses toward its own shipments. Temporary setbacks with distribution and production are being addressed as the United States has topped 68 million shots through February 25, a development that provides encouragement for the hearts of exhibition to start beating with a little more hope as 2021’s second quarter peaks around the corner.
Still, revitalization will not occur overnight just because New York City theaters will be open one week from now. Various films and theaters able to operate have shown in recent months that moviegoers are still seeking out the cinematic experience. However, there are still many people, especially in the largest urban areas, who are likely to play it safe a few more weeks (if not months) until the country approaches a higher degree of inoculation and, eventually, herd immunity against COVID-19… and until the big movies return.
We may see an uptick in box office earnings for many films when NYC turns the lights back on, but it’s wise to expect upward trends over a longer period of time rather than in an instant.
With two major studio releases, Raya and the Last Dragon (also debuting on Disney+ the same day) and Chaos Walking bowing nationwide on the same day as NYC’s restart, though, it’s clear that the next phase of the recovery is about to begin. They’ll be followed by titles like The Courier (March 19), Nobody (March 26), and Godzilla vs. Kong (March 31) before Easter — providing the most steady dose of high-profile content to hit movie theaters since before the pandemic. Mortal Kombat, not to be forgotten, will also open day-and-date on April 16.
This essentially allows a two-month period for not just the residents of The City That Never Sleeps to grow comfortable with moviegoing (among other outside-the-home activities) again, but for the corporate marketing engines of the industry to start booting back up if they like the results they see throughout winter’s end and spring’s beginning. Tangentially, the early weeks of NYC’s restart may also allow other crucial markets like Los Angeles and San Francisco to find their own timelines for re-opening before the middle of spring and early summer.
Speaking of early summer, that’s when the release schedule is currently positioned to pick up even more significantly with the likes of Black Widow (May 7 — which Disney is still committing to theaters), Free Guy (May 21), Spiral (May 21), Cruella (May 28), Fast 9 (May 28) and Infinite (May 28).
For now, at least.
If the past year has taught the industry anything, it’s that it’ll happen when it happens. More delays and potential hybrid releases can’t be ruled out, but the industry is expressing more cautious optimism than it has in many months. Even if that slate doesn’t hold and some (or all) are pushed back another couple of months, early-to-mid summer increasingly looks like a transition period that could help guide the way into a more robust second half of the year.
To repeat for the umpteenth time, whether or not those films meet their current release dates depends on the continued upward trends of vaccinations and declining virus cases — all while keeping an eye on its growing number of variants. But if China’s record-breaking Lunar New Year box office hauls taught us anything earlier this month, it’s that moviegoers will likely be ready when the appropriate time comes.
Paramount’s 30-to-45-Day Theatrical Windows: What Do They Mean?
Barely 48 hours after the widely heralded news about New York City, it was revealed that Paramount will commit their films to exhibition exclusively for anywhere between four and six weekends. After that, such highly anticipated releases like A Quiet Place Part II and Mission: Impossible 7 will be available to stream on Paramount+.
Realistically, this is much closer to a presumed common ground of shortened windows that should be expected in the long run.
Universal’s 17-day and 31-day (for $50 million-plus opening weekenders) agreements with AMC and Cinemark may or may not be open to some molding once the pandemic begins to subside, as may Warner Bros.’ 2021 experiment of day-and-date releases to HBO Max. Paramount, on the other hand, may have just moved much closer to the sweet spot for some of Hollywood’s most important box office players.
Granted, not all studios (Sony and Lionsgate, notably) have in-house streaming platforms available to them, and there will certainly be trends to watch for when it comes to premium-priced PVOD rentals versus full-on availability of a movie at no extra cost to existing subscribers of a given service.
For a slightly deeper dive into how the math of Paramount’s decision works more in favor of exhibitors than against, the original A Quiet Place earned 94 percent of its $188 million domestic total by the 45th day of its release three years ago (and 84 percent by day 30, for argument’s sake).
Even as an original film that broke out beyond expectations and enjoyed strong legs, it was ranking in the bottom tier of the top ten on a daily and weekend basis by that point in its run — leaving the top ten by day 57 and losing 76 percent of its theatrical footprint by day 64.
From the franchise perspective, the ratios drift even higher. Mission: Impossible – Fallout earned 96 percent of its final $220.2 million domestic box office by the 45th day of play (87 percent by day 30).
That franchise is notably leggier than most due to its older target audience, and it was still approaching the metaphorical end credits of its run. The sequel was out of the top 10 and absent from 80 percent of its maximum location count by day 57.
Yes, cinema owners defer a lower share of box office earnings as most films age in theaters, but these two examples point out why the concession may not be as detrimental as some perceive.
From a more theoretical standpoint, Paramount’s flexibility to hit streaming around that point can reduce marketing expenses for downstream at-home releases — in turn saving the studio money. That’s money which can be funneled into producing more content for theaters (and, yes, streaming as well).
While there is still no one-size-fits-all plan across all studios or theater owners, Paramount could ultimately end up providing a blueprint that allows for the most give-and-take between both parties.
Theaters may lose out on that higher profit share of a leggy, word-of-mouth-driven film after four, five, or six weekends, but we’re talking about small potatoes at that point compared to the bulk of earnings made in the first weeks. Plus, cinema owners would presumably still have the option of screening it (for those who simply would rather watch a cinematic movie in a real cinema, rather than at home).
In turn, even some portion of that 4-to-16 percent range in the post-30- or post-45-day windows in the above examples may still be in play. After all, there’s no guarantee every single prospective moviegoer will forfeit the big screen option due to streaming access.
Even more importantly, and again theoretically, screens may open up for movies or other special content that could be in a position to attract more customers than the seventh weekend of a movie that has already earned the lion’s share of its potential. This is a development many will be watching in the post-pandemic era, especially when it comes to opening the doors for streamers’ film content to play in theaters for limited engagements.
Content production is only going to increase by large margins as the world comes out of this pandemic, especially with so many avenues for distribution at the feet of studios now thanks to the coexistent event potential of cinemas and the episodic appeal of streaming. It’s ultimately up to the studios to put this strategy into effect, but with foresight-driven leadership and strategizing, the long-term benefits could outweigh the short-term sacrifices.
Domestic Market Update
Last month, we reported that January’s retail reporting period would close out between $55 million and $60 million domestically, ultimately finishing with an estimated at $57 million. While forecasting February to cap out near $40 million, the month now looks to end with roughly $50 million.
The slight upside over initial February forecasts can mostly be attributed to the sustained legs of films like The Croods: A New Age and The Marksman, sporadic re-openings in areas like Chicago and Seattle, softer-than-typical declines on Super Bowl weekend, and The Little Things‘ ability to haul the best R-rated opening weekend of the pandemic thus far.
Looking ahead, March should see significant improvement with the aforementioned release slate bulking up noticeably. Between Saturday, February 27 and Friday, April 2, the reporting period is currently tracking for a haul between $85 million and $95 million. If it lands on the high end of that range, the first quarter of 2021 would sneak over the $200 million threshold and finish off just 14 percent from Q4 2020 despite the holiday virus surge, lingering market closures throughout January, and a scant calendar of high profile movies.
Should Raya or another of the mainstream-appealing films in March beat expectations by even a small margin, there would be upside for a monthly total close to $100 million for only the third time during the pandemic. It could be challenging to reach the estimated $104 million 35-day reporting period of December 2020, but ever-evolving market conditions (New York City’s reemergence especially) certainly leave that scenario on the table.
While it may be unlikely to reach Q4 2020’s $233.4 million haul, the industry is at least now entering a phase where Q1 2021 is in a position to provide momentum heading into Q2 — when, for now, a lot more Hollywood product tentatively awaits.
Long Range Forecast & 2021’s Wide Release Calendar
Release Date
Title
3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range
% Chg from Last Week
Domestic Total Forecast Range
% Chg from Last Week
Distributor
3/5/2021
Boogie
Focus Features
3/5/2021
Chaos Walking
$2,000,000 – $7,000,000
10%
$6,000,000 – $25,000,000
14%
Lionsgate
3/5/2021
Raya and the Last Dragon
$7,000,000 – $15,000,000
$30,000,000 – $60,000,000
Walt Disney Pictures
3/12/2021
(no releases scheduled)
3/19/2021
The Courier
$2,000,000 – $7,000,000
17%
$7,000,000 – $25,000,000
15%
Lionsgate
3/19/2021
Last Call
IFC Films
3/19/2021
My Brother’s Keeper
Collide Distribution
3/26/2021
Nobody
$5,000,000 – $10,000,000
$10.000,000 – $30,000,000
Universal Pictures
3/31/2021
Godzilla vs. Kong
$8,000,000 – $13,000,000
10%
$15.000,000 – $40,000,000
10%
Warner Bros. Pictures
4/2/2021
(no releases scheduled)
4/9/2021
Voyagers
$2,000,000 – $7,000,000
$5.000,000 – $20,000,000
Lionsgate
4/16/2021
Fatherhood
Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/16/2021
Mortal Kombat (2021)
$4,000,000 – $9,000,000
39%
$10,000,000 – $25,000,000
35%
Warner Bros. Pictures
4/16/2021
Untitled Universal Event Film II (2021)
Universal Pictures
4/23/2021
(no releases scheduled)
4/30/2021
(no releases scheduled)
5/7/2021
Black Widow
Disney / Marvel Studios
5/14/2021
Those Who Wish Me Dead
Warner Bros. Pictures
5/21/2021
Final Account
Focus Features
5/21/2021
Free Guy
Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/21/2021
Spiral: From the Book of Saw
Lionsgate
5/28/2021
Cruella
Walt Disney Pictures
5/28/2021
F9
Universal Pictures
5/28/2021
Infinite
Paramount Pictures
6/4/2021
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It
Warner Bros. / New Line
6/4/2021
Samaritan
United Artists Releasing
6/4/2021
Spirit Untamed
Universal Pictures
6/4/2021
Vivo
Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/11/2021
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway
Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/18/2021
In the Heights
Warner Bros. Pictures
6/18/2021
Luca
Disney / Pixar
6/25/2021
Blue Bayou
Focus Features
6/25/2021
Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/30/2021
Zola
A24
7/2/2021
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Universal Pictures
7/2/2021
Top Gun: Maverick
Paramount Pictures
7/9/2021
The Forever Purge
Universal Pictures
7/9/2021
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Disney / Marvel Studios
7/16/2021
Cinderella (2021)
Sony Pictures / Columbia
7/16/2021
The Night House
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/16/2021
Space Jam: A New Legacy
Warner Bros. Pictures
7/23/2021
The Tomorrow War
Paramount Pictures
7/23/2021
Old
Universal Pictures
7/30/2021
The Green Knight
A24
7/30/2021
Jungle Cruise
Walt Disney Pictures
8/6/2021
Hotel Transylvania 4
Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/6/2021
The Suicide Squad
Warner Bros. Pictures
8/13/2021
Bios
Universal Pictures
8/13/2021
Deep Water
Disney / 20th Century Studios
8/13/2021
Don’t Breathe Sequel
Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/13/2021
Respect
MGM / United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021
Untitled Russo Brothers Family Film
United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021
Untitled Blumhouse Project II (2021)
Universal Pictures
8/20/2021
The Hitman’s Bodyguard 2
Lionsgate
8/20/2021
The King’s Man
Disney / 20th Century Studios
8/20/2021
Paw Patrol
Paramount Pictures
8/27/2021
The Beatles: Get Back
Walt Disney Pictures
8/27/2021
Candyman
Universal Pictures
9/3/2021
Jackass
Paramount Pictures
9/3/2021
Reminiscence
Warner Bros. Pictures
9/3/2021
Untitled Resident Evil
Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/10/2021
Malignant
Warner Bros. Pictures
9/17/2021
The Boss Baby: Family Business
Universal Pictures
9/17/2021
Death on the Nile
Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/17/2021
Man from Toronto
Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/17/2021
A Quiet Place Part II
Paramount Pictures
9/24/2021
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
9/24/2021
Dear Evan Hansen
Universal Pictures
9/24/2021
The Many Saints of Newark
Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021
The Addams Family 2
United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021
Dune
Warner Bros. Pictures
10/8/2021
No Time to Die
MGM
10/15/2021
Halloween Kills
Universal Pictures
10/15/2021
The Last Duel
Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021
Last Night in Soho
Focus Features
10/22/2021
Ron’s Gone Wrong
Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021
Snake Eyes
Paramount Pictures
10/29/2021
Antlers
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/5/2021
Clifford the Big Red Dog
Paramount Pictures
11/5/2021
Eternals
Disney / Marvel Studios
11/11/2021
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Sony Pictures / Columbia
11/19/2021
King Richard
Warner Bros. Pictures
11/19/2021
Mission: Impossible 7
Paramount Pictures
11/24/2021
Encanto
Walt Disney Pictures
12/3/2021
Nightmare Alley (Limited)
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/10/2021
American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story
Lionsgate
12/10/2021
Cyrano
United Artists Releasing
12/10/2021
West Side Story (2020)
Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/17/2021
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/17/2021
Untitled Disney Live Action
Walt Disney Pictures
12/22/2021
Untitled Matrix Sequel
Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2021
Sing 2
Universal Pictures
12/31/2021
(no releases scheduled)
As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving as the pandemic dictates. Projections are subject to breaking announcements at any moment.
The Independent Cinema Alliance (ICA) supports Paramount Pictures and its commitment to a 45-day theatrical window for movies, including the upcoming A Quiet Place 2 and Mission: Impossible 7. Paramount’s commitment to a theatrical experience will allow independent cinemas large and small the opportunity to showcase blockbuster films to communities around the United States, while keeping their guests safe with expert-backed industry health and safety protocols.
“Paramount has chosen to ‘accept the mission’ to help movie theaters recover and thrive,” said Byron Berkley, ICA president, in a written statement referencing the studio’s Mission: Impossible franchise. “This has been the most challenging period in the history of our great industry for both movie theater owners and our studio partners. Paramount knows a theatrically driven business model is vital to the success of the creative community, studios, and movie theater owners.”
Disney has unveiled the teaser trailer and new details on its forthcoming Pixar release Luca, which is slated for release this summer (date TBD).
Directed by the Oscar-nominated Enrico Casarosa (La Luna), Luca is a coming-of-age story with a twist: The eponymous lead character and his best friend, Alberto, are actually sea monsters posing as humans.
As announced today, the title character Luca Paguro is voiced by Jacob Tremblay (Room, Wonder), while his friend Alberto Scorfano is voiced by Jack Dylan Grazer (We Are Who We Are, Shazam). Elsewhere, Emma Berman plays Giulia, “an outgoing and charming adventurer who befriends Luca and Alberto”; Maya Rudolph voices Luca’s mother Daniela; Marco Barricelli voices Giulia’s father Massimo; and Jim Gaffigan voices Luca’s father Lorenzo.
Luca is the first Pixar film to be given a theatrical release in North America since Onward. That film debuted in early March, just before the pandemic shuttered theaters across the U.S. Pixar’s subsequent film, Soul, went straight to the Disney+ streaming platform in December, though it was theatrically released in some international territories.
Check out the Luca trailer, poster and official plot description below.
Set in a beautiful seaside town on the Italian Riviera, Disney and Pixar’s original feature film “Luca” is a coming-of-age story about one young boy experiencing an unforgettable summer filled with gelato, pasta and endless scooter rides. Luca shares these adventures with his newfound best friend, but all the fun is threatened by a deeply-held secret: they are sea monsters from another world just below the water’s surface. Directed by Academy Award® nominee Enrico Casarosa (“La Luna”) and produced by Andrea Warren (“Lava,” “Cars 3”), “Luca” releases Summer 2021.
February’s final frame is in sight, and with it arrives 2021’s first high-profile family movie.
The fourth film under Warner Bros.’ hybrid release experiment, Tom & Jerry will offer fresh content to theaters in need of it, and families with kids who are only increasingly eager to get out of the house. The latter is an audience that has already shown their willingness, where safe and able, to turn out for films like The War with Grandpa and The Croods: A New Age in recent months.
The latter returned to the top of the box office two weeks ago — its 12th of release — and remained there last weekend. The former just finished its 20th weekend of play, having opened in early October, and has charted among the top ten every single weekend since.
Where Tom & Jerry differs is its immediate availability to stream for free on HBO Max with an existing subscription. Even the Croods sequel, which went to PVOD in mid-December, had yet to be available in the home at such a bargain for consumers until its Blu-ray and digital release this past Tuesday.
With those increasingly usual caveats in mind, the pic will debut in north of 2,000 domestic theaters this weekend. It currently boasts a strong 27 percent share of all showtimes across the universe of booked films. That’s just shy of the 31 percent mark reached by both the Croods sequel and Wonder Woman 1984 during their respective openings.
With an estimated 45 percent of domestic theaters open currently, the live-action-animation blend starring Chloë Grace Moretz and Michael Peña won’t have a typical theatrical run. Still, even Warner’s own day-and-date releases have seen varying results that indicate average-to-above-average legs are possible.
Example: Wonder Woman 1984 bowed to $16.7 million over Christmas weekend and has earned 2.55 times that amount so far — a typical multiplier for any tentpole superhero sequel prior to the pandemic. The Little Things, meanwhile, exceeded pandemic-era expectations with a $4.7 million opening frame in late January — the highest R-rated opening of the pandemic up to this point — and is beginning to display some staying power after an initial Super Bowl-driven decline in its second frame. The thriller has earned $11.8 million as of last Sunday.
Tom & Jerry is far more likely to debut in line with the latter of those comparisons, despite having little else in common with it. While the Croods sequel’s $9.7 million three-day weekend might seem like a fair benchmark, that DreamWorks brand is far more well-known to modern day kiddies compared to the legacy branding of an 80-year-old franchise that hasn’t had a significant mainstream presence in decades.
In short, while Tom & Jerry represents another small step toward expanding the volume of mainstream-friendly content playing in theaters, it will likely still be a modest earner compared to the potential of other films in the coming months. We’re expecting an opening weekend in the range of $4.5 million on the low end, potentially going as high as $7 million.
Aside from the new release’s streaming availability, audiences continue to wait for a higher degree of vaccination implementation, bigger product, and major market re-openings — beginning with New York City on March 5.
Holdover Status
Many films should again post strong retention rates this weekend, although there may be some exceptions. The aforementioned Croods sequel and War with Grandpa could drop a bit more sharply than they typically have as they face direct competition for the first time this year, though impact may still be minimal compared to pre-pandemic patterns.
Warner Bros.’ The Little Things should see a stable hold, although Showtimes Dashboard indicates both Judas and the Black Messiah and Wonder Woman 1984 may see sharp location count declines. The former won’t be playing for the same crowd as Tom & Jerry, but it will lose premium screens and the relevant surcharges previously aiding that film’s performance.
Meanwhile, Apple TV+ will release Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry for a limited engagement run in IMAX starting this weekend. We are not currently providing forecasts, and there is no confirmation yet as to whether or not box office returns will be reported.
Weekend vs. Weekend
While it’s still too early to bring back past-year weekend comparisons (the pandemic didn’t take hold until mid-March), the approaching end of winter and New York City’s reopening ahead of a stronger March release slate may yield some justification to monitoring the weekend-to-weekend trends of the domestic box office.
With that mind, we’re projecting the market will increase 47 to 57 percent from last weekend when the top ten generated $7.4 million as The Croods: A New Age led the way again with $1.72 million.
Weekend Forecast
Film
Distributor
3-Day Weekend Forecast
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 28
Location Count
% Change from Last Wknd
Tom & Jerry
Warner Bros. Studios
$5,600,000
$5,600,000
~2,200
NEW
The Croods: A New Age
Universal Pictures
$1,300,000
$52,500,000
-24%
The Little Things
Warner Bros. Studios
$965,000
$13,000,000
~1,800
-16%
The Marksman
Open Road Films / Briarcliff Entertainment
$690,000
$12,325,000
1,414
-12%
Wonder Woman 1984
Warner Bros. Studios
$640,000
$43,625,000
~1,250
-20%
Judas and the Black Messiah
Warner Bros. Studios
$590,000
$1,725,000
~1,200
-32%
Monster Hunter
Sony / Columbia
$460,000
$14,000,000
-12%
Land
Focus Features
$410,000
$2,150,000
-18%
Nomadland
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
$360,000
$985,000*
~1,250
-28%
News of the World
Universal Pictures
$220,000
$12,000,000
-9%
The War with Grandpa
101 Studios
$195,000
$20,575,000
-16%
* Estimate / Projection; Running totals as yet unreported by Searchlight Pictures
All forecasts subject to change before the first confirmation of weekend estimates from studios or alternative sources.
Forecasts above do not necessarily represent the top ten, but rather films with the widest theatrical footprint based on studio confirmations entering the weekend.
For press and media inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins
Founded in 1926, the State Theatre was for years a staple of the local film community, bringing movies and–in its early years, vaudeville–to downtown Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The one-screen movie palace stayed a first-run movie theater for decades, even though the tumultuous ’70s, when a nationwide trend towards suburbanization caused many downtown movie palaces to turn to exploitation or risque content in order to stay open. In the ‘80s, competition from newly-built multiplexes and a lack of investment in updated equipment led the State to becoming a discount theater. In the early 90s, it closed its doors… but not for good.
The non-profit group Sioux Falls State Theatre Company has for years worked to bring the theater behind the State’s iconic marquee back to life. And in December, the State opened its doors to customers once again, beginning a new chapter in the life of a historic movie palace.
Subscribe to The Boxoffice Podcast on Apple or Spotify to listen to our full interview with Allison Weiland, Executive Director of the State Theatre, and Steven Dahlmeier, its General Manager.
Image courtesy of The State Theater
Steven Dahlmeier on the State Theater’s demographics.
Sioux Falls is located on the southeast corner of South Dakota, right next to the Minnesota and Iowa border. The city itself has around 190,000, the metro area’s about 250,000. We’re a relatively small community in the big picture but we’re a big community in our region that drives a lot of the economy for the eastern part of the state. We get a lot of people that travel in to come and visit, including going to movies. We’ve got a couple larger multiplexes but we’re the only single screen theater in Sioux Falls.
Steven Dahlmeier on programming.
What works in Minneapolis isn’t necessarily going to work in Sioux Falls. Some of these guys have been operating the same theater for 20 years, and they know what they’re doing, so we’re taking a lot of cues from a few of them, intertwining what we think would work here. A mix of some of the cult classics from the ’80s and new releases like Minari and Nomadland, which we’re very excited about. We want the people of Sioux Falls come in and experience and enjoy these movies in a historic setting.
Allison Weiland on establishing an identity through the local community.
We still have to answer the question: what are you? We’re a nonprofit; we’re local, it’s two of us managing, programming, and making people aware of what we are. As far as building an audience, we’re trying to program a real diverse program: cult classics, children’s movies, some new releases. Let people know we’re going to be doing everything, we’re for everybody. This isn’t an elite place for just that donor crowd. We want everyone to feel really comfortable here and to know that this is the community’s theater.
It was really interesting to see so many great films not even have a debut here, or only play a single night, like just one showing. There is a huge need for it, also for the [local] economy with our downtown. Bringing a number of people in every day and through the weekend is a huge boost for our community.
Steven Dahlmeier on the State Theater’s role as a gateway to cinema.
We’ve been very pleased with the turnout we bring in. We brought in Metropolis, Roma, Cinema Paradiso, Sound of Metal, a wide mix of films that people might not have seen on the big screen before, just haven’t seen or been exposed to. We’re excited that they’re coming in, not knowing really what they’re going to see, and walking out with smiles on their faces, excited for when we’re going to bring in something else that’s unique. We’re mixing it in with Dirty Dancing and Raiders of the Lost Ark. We did a late night showing of The Thing when it was 25 below and we sold out. There was applause at the beginning and applause at the end. That gives us fuel to keep going and gets us excited for every weekend.
Leading Russian cinema chain Karo has opted for Barco’s DP4K-60L laser projector from Cinionic—a joint project of Barco, CGS, and ALPD—for the premiere hall at their “Karo 11 October” cinema.
Founded in 1967, the October cinema was converted into an 11-screen multiplex in 2005, with the largest screen—boasting approximately 1,000 seats—serving as a common venue for Russian film premieres. The October cinema is also home to the Moscow International Film Festival.
Barco already has a relationship with Karo and Russian exhibitors in particular, with more than half of the digital projectors installed in that country coming from Barco. Says Wim Buyens, CEO of Cinionic: “Russia’s robust box office during this time is testament to the moviegoer’s affinity for cinema. The forward-thinking approach of exhibitors like Karo ensures audiences have exceptional cinema opportunities for years to come. As the leader in laser cinema, Cinionic continues to support theaters around the world with advanced services and innovative solutions to enable elevated entertainment experiences.”
Following Monday’s announcement that movie theaters in New York City will be allowed to open on March 5, Showcase Cinemas has announced that three of their locations—two in Queens, one in Brooklyn—will reopen on that date.
Governor Cuomo’s announcement—long-anticipated yet sudden—gives theaters in NYC the ability to reopen at 25 percent capacity, with a maximum of 50 attendees per auditorium. Theaters in the city were legally ordered to close on March 16 of last year; in October, theaters in wider New York State were allowed to re-open in counties where Covid infection numbers stayed below a certain point. At that time, Showcase re-opened five of their New York State locations; they have also re-opened theaters in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Ohio.
All of Showcase’s re-opened theaters—including the three New York locations set to open their doors on March 5—are operating under the chain’s Be Showcase Safe program, which includes under its protocols:
Temperature checks and symptoms screenings for employees
Required face coverings for employees and patrons
Installation of new air filtration systems
Enforced social distancing
The adoption of contactless payment options
More information about Be Showcase Safe can be found here.
“We have worked to re-envision our Showcase customer experience to make health and safety our main focus,” said Mark Malinowski, Showcase’s vice president of global marketing. “Our Be Showcase Safe program strongly encourages our customers to work together with our employees and follow these new health and safety protocols as we are working toward the same goal – a safe and fun movie-going experience!”
Showcase’s New York City cinemas, like others in that chain and at other circuits domestically and around the world, will be offering private cinema rentals of both new and classic titles, an increasingly popular practice since the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Upcoming Paramount releases will be available at home as early as 30 days following their theatrical release. The revelation was made at Paramount parent company ViacomCBS’s Investor Day presentation, focusing on the media conglomerate’s newly rebranded Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) streaming platform, Paramount Plus, which will host exclusive streaming rights for Paramount titles immediately following their respective theatrical run.
Originally launched as CBS All Access, the ViacomCBS streaming app will now be known as Paramount Plus, assuming several new programming verticals from the ViacomCBS family in its relaunch. Paramount Plus will leverage the appeal of new releases from its eponymous Hollywood studio in order to gain an edge in today’s highly-competitive home entertainment market, which has undergone major fragmentation as media companies invest on in-house offerings as cable subscriptions and video sales continue to decline.
“Movies will come to Paramount Plus in a variety of ways,” stated Bob Bakish, President and CEO of ViacomCBS during the company’s Investor Day presentation. “First, some of the biggest, most anticipated new Paramount films will go exclusively to Paramount Plus 30 to 45 days after their theatrical release. Second: All other new Paramount movies will appear on Paramount Plus after their theatrical run, some as early as 90 days. In addition, new movies from MGM will also appear on Paramount Plus during the pay one window. Third, the powerful hitmaking studios across all of Viacom CBS are ramping up production to provide a continuous flow of new, original movies made exclusively for Paramount Plus. And fourth, all of these new offerings will be underpinned by a library with over 2,500 titles from Paramount, Miramax, and a number of other leading Hollywood studios, which include some of the most popular films and franchises of all time.”
Paramount Pictures CEO Jim Gianopulos announced a 45-day theatrical exclusivity window for A Quiet Place Part II, scheduled for theatrical release on September 17, 2021, and Mission: Impossible 7, set to hit theaters on November 19, 2021. Other 2021 releases––such as Top Gun: Maverick (July 4), Snake Eyes (October 22), and Clifford: The Big Red Dog (November 5)––will reach Paramount Plus in 2022, following their respective theatrical runs. A 30 to 90 day window will apply to all future Paramount and MGM releases moving forward.
Image courtesy of Paramount Pictures
“As we always have, we believe in the power of theatrical releases, and we have faith that after things get back to normal audiences will enthusiastically return to theaters. At the same time, consumers have also increasingly embraced streaming as another way to enjoy films, and our strategy accounts for both,” said Gianopulos.
Paramount is the latest major Hollywood studio to announce its own plans to shorten the theatrical exclusivity window. In July 2020, Universal made headlines when it signed a deal with AMC Theatres to shorten theatrical exclusivity of its titles to a 17 to 30 day window, at which point they would be made available for digital rental on Premium Video on Demand (PVOD) platforms. Rival circuits Cinemark and Cineplex signed on to Universal’s “Dynamic Window” in November.
In December, Warner Bros. caused a stir across the entertainment industry when it announced it would release its entire 2021 theatrical slate day-and-date on its own SVOD platform, HBO Max, at no additional cost to subscribers.
Disney took a slightly different route in its own Investor Day presentation in December, announcing it would make select theatrical titles available on Disney+, some of them at additional cost to subscribers as premium digital rentals.
Paramount, in contrast to Universal and Warner Bros., has up to this point adopted a title-by-title approach to its distribution strategy over the course of the pandemic. Major titles—including A Quiet Place Part II, Top Gun: Maverick, and Mission: Impossible 7—have retained a theatrical commitment, while other titles have been sold off to streamers.
Paramount’s first pandemic sale, romantic comedy The Lovebirds, vacated its April 3 release to instead debut on Netflix on May 22, 2020. In the latter half of the year, the studio sold awards contender The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Netflix in the fall while comedy sequel Coming2America was offloaded to Amazon for a March 2021 streaming release.
ShowEast, one of the first in-person exhibition industry trade shows scheduled to take place in North America since the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, has moved from its previously scheduled dates of October 18-21 to three weeks later: Monday, November 8 to Thursday, November 11.
The change occurred, per Film Expo Group, which runs ShowEast, in order “to better accommodate our attendees and be able to offer lower rates.” The show will still take place, as in previous years, at the Loews Miami Beach Hotel in Miami Beach, Florida.
Marvel has confirmed that the title for the third Spider-Man movie—in its current incarnation, with star Tom Holland behind the mask—will be Spider-Man: No Way Home.
The film, previously slated by Sony for theatrical release on Friday, December 17, 2021, is the follow-up to Spider-Man: Far From Home, which was the fourth highest-grosser of 2019 globally. Domestically, it earned $390.5 million, with a global cume of $1.13 billion.
No Way Home‘s December 17 release puts it in the middle of a tentpole-heavy December, as studios have largely been vacating the Spring months in favor of release dates further back in the year. Spidey’s latest theatrical jaunt currently shares its release date with an untitled Disney live action film. Disney’s West Side Story (released under the 20th Century Studios banner) comes out a week prior, on December 10. The Wednesday before Christmas sees the release of Warner Bros.’ superhero film Black Adam, Sony’s The Nightingale, Universal’s Sing 2, and Warner Bros.’ untitled fourth Matrix film.
Screen manufacturer Galalite Screens has entered a strategic partnership with the India-based company Miraj Group in which it will provide 100 screens to Miraj Cinemas for upcoming projects over the next 15 months, it was announced Tuesday (Feb. 23). The agreement amps up the longstanding relationship between the two companies that was first established in 2013.
Galalite screens provided for the so-called “100 Screen Project” will be powered by the company’s recently launched Lensray Technology, which is designed to significantly reduce visual noise, leading “to a truly superior visual experience,” according to a press release.
“Miraj Group has always believed in enhancing a movie-viewer’s experience. With innovation at the core of our philosophy, we have remained mindful in choosing our partners,” said Miraj Group managing director (entertainment) Amit Sharma in a statement. “Our long-established relationship with Galalite is a testimony to how our companies’ belief systems and purpose are aligned. I am sure that this partnership on the 100 Screens Project will also bring in great value.”
Added Miraj Group manager (purchase) Pinkesh Kumawat, “We have been associated with Galalite Screens ever since Miraj Cinemas began. Taking pride in this association, we are happy to share that the maximum number of the screens at Miraj Cinemas has been purchased from Galalite. They are our trusted partners who have been supporting us in achieving great milestones, and we are sure that they will continue to do so in our journey to growth.”
In his own statement, Galalite Screens director of operations Yusuf Galabhaiwala said, “Miraj Group has been our esteemed client since 2013, and we are truly honoured to have a fruitful and long-established relationship with them. The trust our clients have on us makes us feel grateful as well as proud, especially in these uncertain times. The Galalite family is excited about this partnership, and we believe that it is only partnership, co-creation and team spirit that can help bring progress and purpose to both organizations.”
Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced that cinemas in New York City will be allowed to open at 25 percent capacity starting on March 5, with a maximum per-screen capacity of 50 people–putting an end to months of frustration surrounding an absent reopening timeline for one of North America’s two largest markets.
NEW: Movie theaters in New York City can reopen on March 5 at 25% capacity, with no more than 50 people per screen.
Assigned seating, social distancing and other health precautions will be in place.
New York State cinemas in counties that hit certain benchmarks for Covid-19 infection rates were given permission by Governor Cuomo to operate at limited capacity in October of last year—with the notable exception of New York City, where cinemas had been ordered to close by Mayor De Blasio on March 16, 2020. In the near-year since that point, neither De Blasio nor Cuomo have offered any indication until today of when NYC cinemas might be allowed to resume operation.
A lack of clarity about when the key markets of New York City and Los Angeles might be able to see a return to moviegoing has contributed to an ongoing wave of release date shifts that has seen many major tentpoles pushed into the latter half of 2021 and into 2022.
Cuomo’s March 5 date aligns with the release of Disney/Pixar’s Rayaand the Last Dragon, which debuts in theaters and on Disney Plus on that date. Other films slated for theatrical release in the month of March include Chaos Walking (Lionsgate, March 5), The King’s Man (20th Century Studios, March 12), and Godzilla vs Kong (Warner Bros., March 31).
Says President Joe Masher of NATO of NY, which has been integral in lobbying for NYC theaters to be allowed to reopen:
“We are thrilled that Governor Cuomo has announced theaters in New York City can reopen on March 5th! NATO’s CinemaSafe Protocols have allowed theaters nationwide to operate safely with zero cases traced to a movie theater, and we are excited to entertain New Yorkers once again. I hope the studios now have confidence to return to the traditional theatrical distribution model and hold their release dates as planned. We will work with Governor Cuomo’s team to expand the allowed capacity from 25% to 50% in the coming weeks.”
Adds Patrick Corcoran, Vice President & Chief Communications Officer at NATO:
“Theater owners are pleased with the announcement that New York City movie theaters will be allowed to safely re-open. Stringent voluntary health and safety protocols have made it possible for cinemas across the country to operate safely and responsibly at higher capacity limits for many months without a single outbreak of COVID-19 being traced to movie theaters. New York City is a major market for moviegoing in the U.S.; re-opening there gives confidence to film distributors in setting and holding their theatrical release dates, and is an important step in the recovery of the entire industry. We look forward to expanding the capacity from 25% to 50% in the very near future so that theatres can operate profitably.”
