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Sunday, January 30, 2022

Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man: No Way Home Logs 6th Weekend at No. 1 w/ $11M, Most for Any Superhero Title; MCU Pic Crosses $1B Overseas

Over a weekend with no new wide releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home easily retained the No. 1 spot at the North American box office with an estimated $11M, down just 21% from last weekend. The domestic total for the Marvel franchise pic now stands at a jaw-dropping $735.89M.

The web-slinger sequel has now spent a total of six weeks at the top of the chart, surpassing Black Panther’s five-week run at No. 1 in 2018 to give No Way Home the honor of most weekends at No. 1 for any superhero film or comic-book adaptation. In terms of 21st-century releases, Avatar holds the record for most weeks at the top of the domestic box office with a total of seven weekends – a total No Way Home doesn’t appear likely to surpass given that two major new studio films, Jackass Forever and Moonfall, are slated to drop next weekend.

No Way Home’s six-week run at No. 1 is undeniably impressive, but it bears repeating that the feat isn’t quite as monumental when you consider the sparse theatrical release slate in the month of January due to the ongoing pandemic. The only real competition the MCU entry has faced for the top slot since the turn of the New Year was Scream, which dethroned Spidey in its debut frame before swapping places with the superhero blockbuster last weekend.

In any event, No Way Home could still be on track to become the third highest-grossing film of all time domestically (not adjusting for inflation), with Avatar – which boasts a $760.5M lifetime domestic gross ($749.8M from its original run) – clearly in its sights. It all depends on how the MCU installment holds up in the coming weeks as more major new releases enter the marketplace.

Overseas, No Way Home crossed the $1B mark after grossing an estimated $21.1M this weekend from 63 markets, bringing its international tally to $1.003B and its global total to $1.74B. The blockbuster is now the highest-grossing superhero movie of all time in 19 markets, including Argentina, Belgium, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lithuania, Mexico, Mongolia, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, and the U.K.

Scream again finished in second place with an estimated $7.35M, down 40% from last weekend. The Paramount “re-quel” (reboot/sequel) has a healthy $62.14M through the end of its third weekend, which puts it about 11% below Scream 3 at the same point in its run. The meta-slasher flick also grossed $6.5M from 55 markets this weekend, bringing its international total to $44.1M.

Sing 2 remained at No. 3 in its sixth weekend of release with an estimated $4.8M, putting the Universal/Illumination animated sequel at $134.51M to date. Overseas, it grossed an estimated $17.44M, boosted by a very good $9.3M in Ireland and the U.K. Its international total now stands at $133.41M while its global total is $267.92M.

In fourth place, last weekend’s newcomer Redeeming Love, distributed by Universal, grossed an estimated $1.8M in its sophomore frame, down 48% from its debut. The romantic drama has a soft $6.5M after 10 days of release.

The King’s Man finished at No. 5 with an estimated $1.75M, putting the Disney/20th Century Studios prequel at a disappointing $34M through the end of its sixth weekend. Overseas, the film grossed an estimated $4.2M, bringing its international tally to $80.4M and its global total to $114.4M.

Universal’s The 355, which dropped on PVOD this weekend, took sixth place in its third weekend with an estimated $1.4M, down 13%, for a total of $13.09M to date.

Lionsgate’s American Underdog grossed an estimated $1.23M in seventh place, up 4% from last weekend, giving the Kurt Warner biopic $24.78M through the end of its sixth weekend.

Rounding out the top 10 were three films with sub-$1M grosses: Sony’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife ($770k), UAR’s Licorice Pizza ($691k) and Disney/20th Century Studios’ West Side Story ($614k). The titles stand at $128.06M, $11.82M and $36.04M after 11, 10 and 8 weeks of release, respectively.

SPECIALTY RELEASES

Sony Classics’ Parallel Mothers expanded to 684 screens this weekend, up from 111 last weekend, and took in an estimated $313k. The Pedro Almodovar title has now surpassed the $1M mark domestically.


Title Estimated weekend % change Locations Location change Average Total Weekend Distributor
Spider-Man: No Way Home $11,000,000 -21% 3,675 -30 $2,993 $735,886,280 7 Sony Pictures
Scream $7,350,000 -40% 3,518 -148 $2,089 $62,138,780 3 Paramount
Sing 2 $4,800,000 -17% 3,450 16 $1,391 $134,508,860 6 Universal
Redeeming Love $1,850,000 -48% 1,963 60 $942 $6,531,765 2 Universal
The King’s Man $1,754,000 -2% 2,440 125 $719 $34,044,436 6 20th Century
The 355 $1,400,000 -12% 2,513 -96 $557 $13,089,625 4 Universal
American Underdog $1,225,000 4% 2,113 -51 $580 $24,782,428 6 Lionsgate
Ghostbusters: Afterlife $770,000 18% 1,170 109 $658 $128,058,897 11 Sony Pictures
Licorice Pizza $691,187 5% 772 n/c $895 $11,816,739 10 United Artists
West Side Story $614,000 -14% 1,335 45 $460 $36,035,009 8 20th Century
Nightmare Alley $534,000 133% 1,103 713 $484 $10,354,514 7 Searchlight
House of Gucci $529,305 -5% 907 -100 $584 $52,931,792 10 United Artists
The King’s Daughter $435,000 -40% 1,932 -238 $225 $1,471,504 2 Gravitas Ventures
Belle $326,182 -43% 676 -509 $483 $3,366,867 3 GKIDS
Encanto $318,000 23% 640 195 $497 $93,822,179 10 Walt Disney
Belfast $120,000 252% 196 133 $612 $7,198,815 12 Focus Features
Drive My Car $103,488 11% 114 18 $908 $807,010 10 Janus Films
Gamestop: Rise of the Players $80,011   267   $300 $80,011 1 Super LTD
Flee $70,015 92% 220 183 $318 $186,139 9 Neon
Sundown $24,069   6   $4,012 $24,069 1 Bleecker Street

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Spider-Man: No Way Home Crosses $1B Overseas, First Since 2019’s Lion King

Sony Pictures’ and Marvel Studios’ superhero sequel Spider-Man: No Way Home reached $1B overseas this weekend, the first film to do so during the pandemic era and the first since 2019’s The Lion King.

The film’s top 10 overseas markets so far are:

  1. U.K. ($120.1M)
  2. Mexico ($74.4M)
  3. South Korea ($61.5M)
  4. France ($61.2M)
  5. Australia ($55.2M)
  6. Brazil ($53.8M)
  7. Russia ($46.0M)
  8. Germany ($45.1M)
  9. India ($36.2M)
  10. Japan ($29.7M)

The title has now earned $1.003B overseas, in addition to $735.8M domestically, for a $1.74B total.

The film has not yet been released in the world’s biggest overseas market, China. No release date there has been officially announced, either, leading to speculation that it might not receive one at all. 

The other nine films to previously reach $1B overseas are:

  1. Avatar: $2.08B in 2009
  2. Avengers: Endgame with $1.93B in 2019
  3. Titanic: $1.54B in 1997
  4. Avengers: Infinity War with $1.36B in 2018
  5. Furious 7: $1.16B in 2015
  6. Star Wars: The Force Awakens with $1.12B in 2015
  7. The Lion King: $1.11B in 2019
  8. Jurassic World: $1.01 in 2015
  9. The Fate of the Furious: $1.01B in 2017

 

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Thursday, January 27, 2022

UDITOA 2022: How Drive-In Cinemas Have Endured the Pandemic

Interview with United Drive-In Theatre Owners Association President John Vincent Jr.

A popular narrative emerged during the first phase of cinema reopenings in the summer of 2020: drive-ins—purportedly unaffected by most Covid-19 restrictions—were enjoying a land-office business. The reality was significantly bleaker than the rosy picture painted in those reports. Boxoffice Pro spoke with United Drive-In Theatre Owners Association (UDITOA) president John Vincent Jr. ahead of the association’s first convention since the onset of the pandemic to get a sense of how Covid-19 did, in fact, affect the drive-in business—and why he believes the sector’s recovery will carry on unabated, despite the hardships of recent years.

Drive-ins led the reopening process for cinemas in the United States in 2020, and although there were many headlines heralding a renaissance for the sector, the reality of the situation was not quite as positive as it was made out to be. What was the overall impact of the pandemic on the drive-in business in 2020?

We were happy to be open and provide the public with a much-needed escape during the very early post-quarantine timeframe. That being said, a lot of what the public might perceive as a silver lining for drive-ins in the pandemic was negated by a lot of factors. We had to make sure we had social distancing in our lots [Vincent is also president of Wellfleet Drive-In and Cinemas on Cape Cod, Mass.]. Many of us, including myself, had to go to half capacity. By the time you’re done with half capacity, given the way the rows of parking work, it really was 40 percent capacity. Many drive-ins really only have one day a week, in the summer, to make money: Saturday night.

The other half of the coin is, just like our indoor counterparts, we make a lot of our money on concessions. We had to implement new procedures and policies to get food delivered to customers. My theater was historically cafeteria style: people would walk through one of three lanes and there would be a lot of impulse buying going on. They didn’t have to pre-order the food; they could just pick it up and walk out after visiting the cashier. We had to transition completely into that McDonald’s style where you go up, place your order, and wait for it to be delivered to you. It prevented us from being able to handle crowds very well, because the line would back up pretty profusely, especially with six-foot distancing. Our concession sales were down dramatically, dramatically. So no, 2020 was not one of my drive-in’s best years whatsoever. But I do want to emphasize that operators like myself were just ecstatic to be able to provide an outlet for the public that had very little out-of-home entertainment options at the time.

2021 was a recovery year for the cinema industry at large. How did drive-ins fare during this period?

Well, one thing we’ve learned in the drive-in industry from the pandemic is that Hollywood is not going to release their blockbuster movies just for drive-ins. We learned that in 2020, and we knew it coming into 2021, when the entire industry was not up to the levels where studios would like us to be in terms of attendance, because of the lingering Covid concerns. A lot of the product was delayed and films that were released day-and-date with some of the streaming services also hurt our business. 2021, for my theater in particular, wasn’t one for the record books either. In fact, honestly, it was one of the worst years we’ve had in the last two decades.

Are you concerned about any long-lasting effects the pandemics may have on drive-ins?

We’re happy to be here and provide valuable out-of-home entertainment. We look forward to the many years to come. You’re not going to see a big reduction in the drive-in theater count. We really need a robust theatrical business, including all the indoor theaters, from the largest chains down to the smallest single-screen hometown theaters, to be up, running, and at their best in order for the entire industry to thrive. We’re very thankful our indoor counterparts were able to receive funds from the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant (SVOG), which really did save our hometown theaters. If it wasn’t for that and the work of the National Association of Theatre Owners we’d be in a very different place.

You mention the SVOG funds. Drive-ins were excluded from that program, were they not?

That’scorrect. I will add an asterisk to that though, in that it wasn’t a poison pill like the policy that stated if you’re a publicly traded company, you’re not eligible for SVOG, period. While drive-ins, in and of themselves, were not eligible, many indoor cinemas were, of course, eligible. We did have some drive-ins, near major cities, that did tend to do OK in the pandemic. But many, especially as you get into the rural areas, did not. But we did benefit from other government programs outside of SVOG, like the Payroll Protection Program. That definitely helped some drive-ins; it wasn’t like we were without any support whatsoever.

Overall, we were happy to be open and serve customers, provide an outlet, and keep the pulse of the theatrical business going during the hardest months of the pandemic. There were a couple of times in 2020 when drive-ins took over the list of the 10 highest-grossing theaters in the country, but it was nothing like the narrative that was out there that drive-ins were doing fantastic and going through this resurgence. I’ve been in this business for 33 years, and drive-ins truly saw that resurgence in the early ’90s, when we started to get mainstream product again. There is a whole host of issues why drive-ins will never have the same screen count we had in the 1950s: land value, seasonality, I’m not going to go down the line and mention all of them. But the drive-ins that are left, they’re here to stay.

What types of movies have worked best at drive-in theaters during the pandemic?

For your three-, four-, or five-screen drive-ins, they can take pretty much everything. From the single-screen perspective, you really need to attract the widest-possible audience to make it work. Jungle Cruise and Free Guy, in August of last year, really helped carry the weight, not only at the drive-ins but at indoor theaters as well. Family movies draw the widest attraction—something adults can appreciate and all the way down to five-, seven-year-olds. There are outliers that do really well, horror movies and the like, but at most drive-ins, it’s the family movies that draw the widest attraction: movies watchable by the vast majority of audiences.

Aside from that, we continue to perform well with so-called “retro” movies. We wish more of them were out of the vault and available to program. Most drive-ins do quite well with classics such as Dirty Dancing, Grease, Jaws, The Goonies, Gremlins. You can’t go wrong with those—but you can’t play them all summer, either. They’re good to program once or twice a season. We do quite well with those older movies that Generation X saw growing up; now the millennials are responding to some ’90s titles.

One of those new releases you mentioned was available day-and-date on PVOD. Did that have any impact on attendance?

Absolutely. Of the two new releases I mentioned, we did see a more precipitous drop in the one that was available on PVOD week to week than the one that wasn’t. Without PVOD, they definitely last longer. I think that benefits the entire industry, not only theaters, to have that length in theaters.

Last summer, you had some competition from drive-ins that were outside the exhibition business. City parks, big box stores that put pop-up drive-ins on their parking lot—companies that have no business in exhibition that came in to compete against authentic drive-ins. That led you to open a website where moviegoers could find an authentic drive-in nationwide. How is that project going?

We launched AuthenticDriveIns.com and it espouses the assets that we consider [necessary for] an authentic drive-in. Primarily, was it built to be a drive-in? We also take into consideration some technical features, like having a large, permanently constructed screen and DCI-compliant equipment for Hollywood first-run movies that meet the proper brightness and color controls. The right sound. A fixed concession building, possibly a playground. And a lot of other smaller things that, on the whole, make up the authentic drive-in experience, versus being in a parking lot with a screen thrown up in some manner. We think that the public understands the difference. The website is a great way to find your local drive-in. If you’re not familiar where they are, there’s a geographical search you can do on it, and you’ll find the local UDITOA drive-in near you.

What really irks us as an industry is the availability of product. There are certain movies that are in the vault for real theaters, indoor or outdoor, that we don’t have access to. A lot of these temporary venues had access to that repertory product, including in 2020, that we were forbidden from playing. That is particularly troubling to our industry—that for a variety of reasons, we’re not allowed to play some of these retro movies while these pop-up venues are allowed to play them. Aside from that, I think the public does appreciate the authentic drive-in experience and they will seek it out. I encourage everyone to seek out an authentic drive-in experience, if you haven’t been. We know there are a lot of areas in the United States that don’t have one within a drivable distance, but if you have the opportunity, please visit your local drive-in. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised and love the experience.

This is the off-season for drive-ins, which coincidentally overlaps with the Major League Baseball season. Instead of the MLB’s winter meetings, you have your annual UDITOA convention in January. What do you have lined up for this year’s event?

We’re eager to get back to meeting in person. We will be at the Grand Orlando Resort, soon to be Delta by Marriott, in Kissimmee [Florida]. It’s a perfect facility for us. just the right size, where we have the entire convention facilities and we have some flexibility in going back and forth between rooms, versus being in a facility that’s too small or a facility that’s so big that you’re one of many conventions there.

This year, we’re going to focus on getting together, the social side of things. It’s going to be similar in spirit to CinemaCon last August, where we’re not going to worry about a tentpole event, speakers, or anything like that. We just want to get together, enjoy each other’s company, and catch up. Many of us have not seen each other in two years.

We are going to have a panel discussion on lessons learned over the last two years. A lot of us got forced out of our comfort zone. For example, although I’ve had a point of sale at my indoor cinemas since 1986, several of us didn’t have that coming into 2019. We were always worried: How do we deal with selling advance tickets? What do we do with possible sellout nights in fishing out the people coming in who bought advance tickets? We had never intended on going to advance tickets in my drive-in. Eventually, we knew we were going to have to go to a credit card system at the box office, but Covid accelerated that.

One of the lessons we learned is that selling advance tickets at the drive-in is a very good thing on so many levels. It gives us a serious indicator of how busy the night’s going to be. You can plan to staff accordingly by calling in extra people at four or five o’clock, when we didn’t have that intelligence before. That’s the type of information we’re going to exchange with each other to learn and help us collectively improve our business. That’s always been a big component of the drive-in industry. We’re very forthright, sharing ideas on how to do our operations and make more money.

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Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Weekend Box Office Forecast: Spider-Man: No Way Home Goes for Sixth #1 Finish, Will Surpass Black Panther‘s Comic Book Movie Record

The industry’s long trudge through January approaches its final hurdle this weekend as — yet again — no major releases will hit theaters, leaving the door wide open for Spider-Man: No Way Home to set another record.

Since bowing before Christmas, the Marvel Cinematic Universe phenom has soared beyond even the most optimistic of expectations throughout its domestic and international run. On the home front, the pic reclaimed first place last weekend after a brief interlude for the debut of Scream over MLK weekend. It was Spidey’s fifth turn atop the box office, which tied it with Black Panther for the most in history by any comic book adaptation or superhero film.

Various market relevancies make it an apples-and-oranges comparison to many of history’s biggest films, but said record will easily fall this weekend as No Way Home is on a competition-less trajectory for a sixth weekend crown. That would mark the most of any movie since Avatar‘s seven king-of-the-hill finishes, the only other film to achieve as many weekend box office championships since before the turn of the 21st century.

As an aside, No Way Home will also set a new pandemic-era record with a sixth appearance in first place. The MCU crossover is currently tied with the asterisk-heavy run of Tenet, which enjoyed five first place finishes in late 2020. They’re followed by The Croods: A New Age‘s four victory laps later that holiday season as major market theaters remained shuttered, vaccines were yet to be publicly available, and new theatrical releases were hard to find.

Speaking of Avatar, its lifetime domestic gross is still in the conversation for the Spider-Man epic. Through Tuesday, January 25, No Way Home stood at $723 million through 40 days of release, remaining the fourth highest earner in North American history (not accounting for inflation, of course). The 2009 James Cameron film owns a $760.5 million lifetime mark ($749.8 million from its original run), ranking as the third best in history behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.7 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($858.4 million).

Those latter two benchmarks are out of reach for No Way Home (sans any future re-releases), but Avatar is squarely within sight. We’re projecting the film will need just another estimated $24.5 million after this weekend to surpass Cameron’s movie. Although Spidey will face fresh rounds of competition beginning in February, including a loss of IMAX screens, such a feat remains plausible — but challenging — given the movie’s incredible staying power thus far.

On the holdover front, a lack of new entries means theaters will again lean on the carryover marketplace. Scream should easily remain in second place for its third frame as it, too, holds onto a PLF footprint. Sing 2 remains a strong family option and doesn’t have anything close enough behind it to challenge for the number three position.

In general, this weekend’s holdovers should see relatively soft drops across the board. NFL playoffs will again be a factor on Sunday with conference championships taking place throughout the afternoon and evening.

Next week, February is tracking to regain some momentum with Paramount’s Jackass Forever courting the reliable male audience that’s been near the center of theatrical recovery during the pandemic. Lionsgate’s Moonfall will similarly lean toward men and action fans with an IMAX release, although its most recent forecasts are more conservative than the Johnny Knoxville-led comedy.

Wide Release Forecast Ranges

(none)

Weekend Forecast

Boxoffice projects between a 25 to 30 percent decline for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $42.2 million top ten aggregate. 

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 30 Location Count 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Spider-Man: No Way Home Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios $11,000,000 $736,000,000 TBA -21%
Scream (2022) Paramount Pictures $7,500,000 $62,500,000 TBA -39%
Sing 2 Universal Pictures $4,600,000 $134,300,000 TBA -20%
Redeeming Love Universal Pictures $1,600,000 $6,200,000 TBA -55%
The King’s Man Disney / 20th Century Studios $1,500,000 $33,800,000 TBA -16%
The 355 Universal Pictures $1,200,000 $12,900,000 TBA -25%
American Underdog Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company $1,000,000 $24,600,000 TBA -15%
West Side Story (2021) Disney / 20th Century Studios $600,000 $36,000,000 TBA -16%
Ghostbusters: Afterlife Sony Pictures / Columbia $575,000 $127,900,000 TBA -12%
Licorice Pizza United Artists Releasing $550,000 $11,700,000 TBA -17%

All forecasts are subject to revision before the first confirmation of Thursday previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are updated as confirmed by studiosThe above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

The post Weekend Box Office Forecast: <em>Spider-Man: No Way Home</em> Goes for Sixth #1 Finish, Will Surpass <em>Black Panther</em>‘s Comic Book Movie Record appeared first on Boxoffice.



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Focus Features Release Date Shuffle: Downton Abbey: A New Era Moves to May 20, 2022; The Outfit Moves to March 18, 2022

Focus Features, Universal Pictures International and Carnival Films have announced that the global release of date Downton Abbey: A New Era has moved from March 18, 2022 to May 20, 2022 in the U.S. In the U.K., the sequel will now hit theaters on April 29, 2022.

Additionally, Focus has moved the release date of The Outfit, the directorial debut of Oscar-winning screenwriter Graham Moore, from February 25, 2022 to March 18, 2022, taking Downton’s spot on the calendar.

You can find full breakdowns of each film below.

Downton Abbey: A New Era:

From award-winning creator Julian Fellowes comes the motion picture event DOWNTON ABBEY: A NEW ERA. The much-anticipated cinematic return of the global phenomenon reunites the beloved cast as they go on a grand journey to the South of France to uncover the mystery of the Dowager Countess’ newly inherited villa.

The original principal cast have returned for the second film along with new additions Hugh Dancy, Laura Haddock, Nathalie Baye and Dominic West. The screenplay is written by Downton creator and Academy-Award® winner Julian Fellowes, with Emmy and BAFTA Award-winning Gareth Neame and Emmy Award-winning Liz Trubridge producing with Fellowes. BAFTA and Emmy nominated Simon Curtis (My Week with Marilyn) is directing.

The Outfit:

THE OUTFIT is directed by Moore (The Imitation Game), who also co-wrote the screenplay with actor/writer Johnathan McClain (Mad Men). The film stars Academy Award® winner Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Dylan O’Brien (The Maze Runner series), Zoey Deutch (Set It Up), Johnny Flynn (Emma), Nikki Amuka-Bird (NW) and Simon Russell Beale (The Hollow Crown). Producers are Scoop Wasserstein, Ben Browning and Amy Jackson. The film is a gripping and masterful thriller in which an expert tailor (Rylance) must outwit a dangerous group of mobsters in order to survive a fateful night.

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Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Arts Alliance Media Launches Screenwriter TMS Update with Additional Automated Features

Arts Alliance Media has launched a new version of Screenwriter’s theater management system (TMS) software.

Available exclusively to Arts Alliance Media customers, the update allows exhibitors to further fine-tune their daily operations by simplifying tasks, reducing costs, and increasing automation.

The flagship feature of the Screenwriter update is all-new smart transfer technology, which allows exhibitors to transfer data simultaneously from multiple sources. This allows them to ensure that content is delivered more quickly ahead of playback, optimized for theaters with seven or more auditoriums.

The new version of Screenwriter boasts several automatic functions, including determining the priority of transfers based on an exhibitor’s upcoming schedule; initiating transfers after the last screening ends; and canceling and restarting stagnant transfers to help ease peak time operations and build efficiency outside of business hours.

Other automated features include new auto-delete functionality to help keep servers organized and operational costs low; the removal of eligible features, trailers, and advertisements;  and making space on playback servers for incoming content.

“Since its first release in 2013, we have focused intently on developing pioneering automated workflows that revolutionise theatres’ digital operations, and these progressive TMS enhancements only reaffirm our long-standing position at the forefront of innovation,” said Arts Alliance Media GM and CFO Alan Bowen in a statement.

Screenwriter schedules features, trailers and advertisements; monitors screens; and controls playback for more than 45,000 screens across the globe.

“To drive efficiency and reduce room for error, exhibitors need the tools to work smarter, not harder,” added Bowen. “By streamlining daily content management tasks, staff will have more time to cater to their audiences.”

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Back to the Big Screen: Industry Leaders on In-Cinema Advertising’s Pandemic Journey

The recovery of the cinema sector—the ebbs and flows, the changes from market to market, and its eventual return to prepandemic levels—is mirrored by the community of companies that work with cinemas to make their operation possible. Included in this, of course, is the cinema advertising community, which was hit by downturns not only in exhibition, but in myriad other industries that buy ads to put on cinema screens, from restaurants to travel. Below, Boxoffice Pro speaks to representatives from leading cinema advertising agencies—including international outfits Pearl & Dean (U.K.) and Val Morgan (Australia and New Zealand)—to get their take on how their corner of the exhibition industry has weathered the pandemic storm.

Can you describe, in general terms, what things were like for your company in the first few months after Covid shut down the cinema industry? Did you have any idea how long it would last?

Spotlight Cinema Networks: As with everyone in our industry, Covid had a tremendous impact on our business. While we knew business would be operating again at some point, we knew we needed to get creative, pivot, and prioritize plans for the type of company we wanted to be coming out of the pandemic.

National CineMedia: It was a difficult time, as it was such an unusual situation for movie theaters to completely close with no understanding of a timeline for reopening. The company went into full evaluation mode of what we needed to do to survive and come out thriving on the other end.

Screenvision Media: Like so many businesses, we were severely impacted by the suddenness and the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak. We moved within days to a 100 percent remote work model and initiated immediate outreach to our employees, our theater partners, and our advertisers to plan for a 90- to 180-day shutdown. Honestly, we were hopeful for a Labor Day return, but we made difficult cutbacks and decisions that could help us endure for a much longer time frame. If we hadn’t made the very difficult calls as quickly as we did, it would have been very hard for us to have made it through [to this point].

Pearl & Dean: I think initially we were, like many companies, in a mixed state of surprise and suspense. We had to pivot to remote working very quickly (though luckily, we had just finished a major systems and operations update, which made doing so possible). After that, it was just a waiting game until restrictions would stop. It felt like managing a continually changing landscape. One constant we knew we had to focus on was the reaffirmation of the cinema experience as the clamor around streaming grew.

Val Morgan: In the first market-wide lockdown, cinemas in Australia and New Zealand closed in late March 2020. New Zealand reopened early June, with Australia following a couple of weeks later. We were initially expecting this to last a few months and worked quickly to keep our advertising clients informed. Soon after the initial reopening, we had the first (of what has now been many) periodic shutdown in certain markets, at the same time the industry was realigning itself with titles and release dates moving around in the schedule. At the outset we built different scenarios for the business, with no firm view at the time on when this might be over.

How did your company’s relationship with its cinema partners change/evolve over the pandemic? What kind of conversations were you having with your exhibitor partners as the pandemic went on? How about your advertising partners?

Pearl & Dean: Our cinema partners were in as much flux as we were. Our outdoor and pop-up cinemas had to change their models to drive-ins, and we worked through that with them. In the bricks-and-mortar bit of our business, we communicated frequently, shared information, and worked with the UKCA (the trade body for exhibition) and the FDA (the distribution trade body) to keep on top of any news, trends, and developments. In both exhibition and advertising, communication was absolutely key. We held webinars and regular catch-up sessions—anything that ensured we were helping out and keeping cinema top of mind.

Screenvision Media: Essentially, our overarching position was to be the very best partners we could be. It’s the standard we hold ourselves to during “normal operating times,” and we felt our culture of excellence and of forbearance to be all the more critical during the pandemic force majeure. Specifically, that meant being flexible and creative with our exhibitor partners and maintaining a high level of communication and touch. With our advertisers, it meant shifting or canceling massive advertising-budget commitments no matter what the contracts may have specified. At our core, it was humanity above all. We all took off our respective advertiser or exhibitor or media hats and just became human beings trying to weather the most severe crisis any of us had ever professionally confronted.

Val Morgan: Transparent and open conversations, with both our exhibitor and advertiser partners, have built on the strong relationships we already had with them. For our exhibitors, it was about keeping them up to date with the resulting impact of changes to advertisers’ plans and the subsequent impact on revenue. For advertisers it was about providing reassurance that we were delivering audiences and that campaigns were going to be delivered. As time has gone on, we’ve moved back into the conversation with both parties about the future and getting back to the growth plan we had in place prior to the pandemic.

National CineMedia: We stayed very close with exhibitors on how things evolved and were in constant communication throughout. We had ongoing communication with advertisers about how they were doing and how their business was evolving, and we kept them up to date on what was happening in the world of cinema, which at times during the pandemic was a very fluid situation. We made sure to keep our advertising partners informed of the movie release schedule and when audiences started to return to theaters.

Are there any pivots that your company made, changing their status quo to better reflect the realities of the Covid era?

Val Morgan: Agility, communication, and flexibility have been key. The business quickly transitioned to enable our teams to work from home effectively. Communication across the business has been a major focus throughout this period, keeping our teams engaged, informed, and motivated. To connect effectively with our advertising partners, we also developed a range of initiatives to keep the profile of cinema high amongst media agencies and clients, who were working from home themselves.

Screenvision Media: We pushed ourselves to try to help our theater-exhibitor partners maintain and deepen their own customer and community relationships. We could only mostly provide counsel and creativity, but we also invested some of our hard-earned dollars to build a new loyalty digital app that could help some of our exhibitors provide fresh and updated trailer previews while incorporating local and customized theater messaging. In some instances, we were able to create shared advertising monetization that benefited our advertisers and our theater partners.

We also looked to experimentally pivot into some other adjacent audience platforms, such as health care, sports, and essential retail advertising. Though this did not directly benefit our theater exhibitors, it was not unrelated to their long-term interests in that it helped sustain our Screenvision Media business and economic health.

Pearl & Dean: What came out of Covid was the closeness and focus of the team here. You can take that for granted in more regular times. It made us stronger as a group.

Spotlight Cinema Networks: Spotlight is known for its dedication to serving the needs of luxury, dine-in, and art house cinemas. Our exhibitor- and advertising-partner relationships were reinforced during the pandemic. Communication was key and the message was clear: “We are all in this together.” We worked relentlessly to continue providing new opportunities, services, and resources throughout the pandemic. In fact, Spotlight is emerging with a few key accomplishments post-Covid-19:

  • We strengthened and grew our exhibitor network over the past 22 months. This includes an expansion of our long-term relationship with Cinépolis Luxury Cinemas, where we now exclusively represent all of their locations. We also welcomed new exhibitor partners, including LOOK Dine-In Cinemas and Cinema Lab. We are proud that we were able to grow our network during this difficult time, with our national screen count growing 14 percent and our local screen count growing 35 percent.
  • Expanded media portfolio for our advertising partners to reach and engage with moviegoers. Options include in-theater pre-show and vertical networks; outdoor and premium streaming AVOD.
  • Enhanced proprietary digital-distribution technology to include media and content delivery without use of servers, installation costs, and thumb drive shipments

National CineMedia: We’ve been closely examining all of our business since the pandemic began. We’ve pivoted and have gotten into the digital OOH media space, along with enhancing and expanding our digital and data offering, and have much more advanced audience targeting capabilities.

During the year or so, how has your company been able to help your cinema partners through their recovery process?

Screenvision Media: We continue to stay highly communicative, flexible, and adaptable. Fundamentally, we are focused on generating maximum advertising revenues as quickly as we are able to help supplement our exhibitors’ finances during these very difficult times.

We have also taken on additional creative and marketing support responsibilities where most helpful to some of our partners.

Spotlight Cinema Networks: Our event cinema division, CineLife Entertainment, provided much-needed content to exhibitors as their theaters reopened across the U.S. Highlights include the release of John Carpenter’s Halloween, which reached over 1,000 screens across the U.S. and Canada during the fall of 2020. 2021 included releases of the critically acclaimed Chicago: America’s Hidden War, Sopranos Sessions: A Special Theatrical Triple Feature, and another screening of fan-favorite Halloween.

Pearl & Dean: We have offered to support them in any way we can. There isn’t a pattern to the support we give, as our partners are varied. But they know we’re here to support and help in any way we can. We also linked up with one of the big advertising groups, Omnicom, to run a £2 million “Cinema Is Back” campaign, where other media platforms gave us inventory to publicize the return of cinema. The help that Omnicom gave us was exceptional, and they were brilliant partners. At that time no one was in a position to spend much on advertising, so we were delighted to do that.

Val Morgan: Working closely with our partners in exhibition and providing realistic revenue forecasts based on our conversations in-market with advertisers and their agencies.

We’ve seen how changes that occurred during the pandemic—shorter exclusivity windows, to use one particularly big example—will have a long-ranging impact on the industry. Has the pandemic caused any shifts in the cinema advertising landscape that you think might be permanent?

Screenvision Media: Beyond the truncated exhibition windows, I believe cinema operators have more fully recognized they are deeply allied with the talent industry of this tremendous sector. Theater owners and Hollywood talent—directors, actors, producers—are uniquely aligned in their fierce determination to protect and promote the most valuable and impactful canvas on the planet.

Spotlight Cinema Networks: I expect some change as a consequence of the pandemic. Everyone and everything has changed. While the dust has not settled yet on what the new normal will be, I believe moviegoing remains a magical experience and cinema advertising will rebound as it emerges from Covid-19. It is encouraging how well films such as Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, No Time to Die, Dune, and House of Gucci have done at the box office.

Val Morgan: Early after the first national lockdown ended in Australia, we commissioned research to gauge sentiment about cinema. The findings showed the desire for out-of-home experiences and that Australians’ love of cinema was as strong as ever. Importantly for brands, those with the most positive outlook and those most willing and able to make big purchase decisions were also the first to come back—we dubbed this segment “the Great Escapers.” Whilst we’ve faced several periods of closure across the year, we’ve been encouraged by the appetite to get back to the movies. Whilst many have suggested the death of cinema, we believe in the future more than ever based on cinemas’ sheer power for brands and the “experience” factor it offers versus in-home media and movie viewing.

National CineMedia: The streaming day-and-date experiment generally failed, as studios are leaving money on the table. The theatrical window has shortened and looks to be settling in at 45 days. The audience’s pent-up demand and passion for shared live experiences and seeing the world’s best content has come back with a vengeance. During the pandemic, the move of audiences to non-ad-supported streaming platforms has only increased the value of cinema as one of the last places to reach young people at scale. We are seeing strong and consistent attendance and box office numbers, particularly among the hard-to-reach 18- to 34- and 18- to 49-year-old audiences.

Where would you say the cinema advertising landscape is in its recovery process? Do you have a ballpark estimate as to when you’ll be back to prepandemic levels?

National CineMedia: We’ve been bringing our partners back to cinema throughout most of 2021, and that rebuild will continue into 2022.

Spotlight Cinema Networks: We are hopeful for 2022. Cinema is a resilient business, and I think the lessons we have learned over the past two years will help set us up for future growth. Audiences love to immerse themselves with great content in a great theatrical environment.

Pearl & Dean: I would say that we are cautiously optimistic regarding the recovery. Industry forecasts show that advertising revenue in 2022 will show strong growth, and we expect cinema revenues to follow suit. Our advertising revenues in Q4 2021 are ahead of the same period in 2019, so we are starting 2022 with a positive outlook.

Val Morgan: We are in the early stages of the recovery cycle, as our vaccination rate initially lagged behind the world for the first half of 2021. The key markets of Sydney and Melbourne only came out of the last lockdown in October 2021, and Auckland has just reopened again at the beginning of December. It’s still early days, but I estimate that we could be back to prepandemic levels by the end of 2022.

What’s the number one lesson you’ve learned from this pandemic?

Screenvision Media: At the core, humans fundamentally need socialization, storytelling, and shared experiences. No couch or pandemic can negate that truth. Ever.

Pearl & Dean: The number one lesson is the importance of our team. During the darkest times of the pandemic, our mutual support helped us enormously. We are also part of the global family that is SAWA [Global Cinema Advertising Association], so sharing experiences, knowledge, and plans with colleagues in other markets was really great.

National CineMedia: The cinema experience has survived 100 years of change, ranging from technological innovation to audience behaviors—yet we still survive and thrive. Our company will continue to reinvent itself to meet our audience and advertiser needs.

Val Morgan: The importance of a long-term perspective.

Spotlight Cinema Networks: The biggest lesson I learned over the past two years is to be prepared for the unexpected. It is imperative to have an efficient emergency plan to activate. Spotlight jumped right into action to effectively work remotely and keep Spotlight top of mind while reflecting on-the-ground realities.

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France’s VEO Cinémas Selects Globecast, in Partnership With EasyBroadcast, to Create a Live Cinema B2B OTT Platform

PRESS RELEASE


Paris, 25th January 2022 — Globecast, the global solutions provider for media and content management, has announced that VEO Cinémas, based in the south of France, has selected Globecast, in partnership with EasyBroadcast, a France-based, patented hybrid streaming technology supplier, to provide a B2B OTT service for distributing value-added live content to cinemas around France.

For some years now, François Aymé, Director of Cinéma Jean Eustache in Pessac, near Bordeaux, has been offering live pre- and post-screening presentations, conferences, panels and Q&A audience participation sessions to accompany screenings of selected films. The service, called Unipop, had proven to be very popular with cinemagoers at Cinéma Jean Eustache, so VEO Cinémas wanted to bring the same live content to any cinema wishing to take part around France.

Pierre Ramon, Sales Manager at Globecast, said, “We were approached by VEO Cinémas to create an end-to-end B2B OTT service to bring subscribing cinemas around France the live content from the cinema in Pessac. We worked closely with our long-term partner EasyBroadcast to create a comprehensive service that distributes value-added live and on-demand content. The new service is called Unipop de Ville en Ville and was delivered in just three weeks, in time for the start of the season in September 2021.”

It allows participating cinemas that purchase a subscription from VEO Cinémas to receive a live broadcast of the event accompanying the screening of the film. Audience members in remotely connected cinema auditoriums can send questions via text message to the host of the event in Pessac or their guest. This brings value-added cultural discussion to the cinemagoing experience.

The event produced in Pessac is recorded on multiple cameras and then broadcast live online via AVIWEST technology to the Globecast site in Paris. It is then distributed over the public internet to participating cinemas. To maintain a high-quality minimum standard at all times, Globecast uses adaptive media streaming. Participating cinemas must have a certain amount of bandwidth to subscribe to the service and to display content with the right quality on a large cinema screen (8 to 16 m). More than 30 events are offered over the course of the season. The cinemas are committed to broadcasting at least 12 per year which they are free to choose at their own discretion.

Globecast chose EasyBroadcast to provide the OTT video platform – providing subscription management, an events catalogue, the ability to view analytics and an easy-to-use web portal. It also allows VEO Cinémas to update and display the content catalogue for the season.

Jean-Pierre Villa, CEO of VEO Cinémas, said, “The Pessac Unipop events have been very popular, helping to grow the cinema’s audience. We knew that if we could expand this to other screens around the country, then their audiences could also benefit from them, providing a significant value-added service and additional revenue to the cinema owners. The quality of the screenings appealed to cinema owners and audience members alike, contributing to the success of Unipop de Ville en Ville. This is in large part due to the hard work put in by Globecast.”

Pierre Ramon added, “When VEO Cinémas came to us, we were immediately excited by the idea, and we could see the value in it for both audiences and cinemas. We worked closely with EasyBroadcast to extend our live event contribution and distribution core business to create this end-to-end service enforcing the business model of VEO Cinémas while ensuring viewing quality is maintained at all times and the technology is easy to use, from event scheduling and publishing to the GUI and reporting.”

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Harkness Donates Two Screens to BAFTA’s Redeveloped Headquarters

Cinema screen manufacturer Harkness has donated two screens to BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) for the independent arts charity’s redeveloped headquarters at 195 Piccadilly in London.

The screens, both mini perforated, are a Matt Plus at 10.4m x 4.70m in the BAFTA headquarters’ Princess Anne Theatre, which has also been upgraded to a Dolby Theatre, and a High Contrast Grey Preview at 4.70m x 2.02m in the Run Run Shaw Theatre.

“Harkness have very kindly gifted two cinema screens to the redevelopment of our headquarters which will create some fabulous spaces to enable us to take to the next level our programme of support for newcomers to the creative industries,” said BAFTA head of property, Pauline Campbell, in a statement.

BAFTA’s headquarters have been redeveloped to double the building’s capacity and install state-of-the-art technology throughout. The project will create an entire floor devoted to the organization’s learning and new talent programs, which will enable it to support the career development of over 80,000 people in the creative industries each year.

Princess Anne Theatre (Courtesy Image)

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AMC Theatres Signs Exclusive Cinema Screen Supply Agreement with STRONG/MDI Screen Systems

STRONG/MDI Screen Systems, a subsidiary of Ballantyne Strong, has signed an exclusive cinema screen supply agreement with AMC Theatres for its U.S.-based locations.

Mark Roberson, CEO of Ballantyne Strong, said in a statement, “AMC is a true industry leader focused on the consumer and on providing a premium cinema experience, and we’re pleased to have been selected to meet all of their projection screen needs. We are proud to build on our legacy as the industry leader helping AMC bring consumers the best theatrical viewing experience.”    

“We are excited to continue our long relationship with AMC Theatres, which dates back decades,” added Ray Boegner, president of Strong Entertainment. “AMC is the largest movie exhibition company with more than 10,000 screens, and we believe this exclusive agreement reflects the focus that STRONG/MDI places on quality and support for our partners. AMC has historically been one of the key innovators in the cinema industry, providing state of the art venues and new and unique experiences for the movie going audience. We are extremely proud and gratified that AMC has chosen to partner with STRONG/MDI on an exclusive basis, to provide our best-in-class screens to enhance the in-theatre viewing experience for their patrons for many years to come.”

“One of the most important factors in the moviegoing experience is the actual screen itself,” added Mark Latimer, vice president, sight and sound at AMC. “With STRONG/MDI screens, we are providing our audience with the very best-in-class screen presentation technology.”

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Monday, January 24, 2022

Star Cinema Grill Acquires Two Chicago Area IPIC Locations

Dine-in cinema company Star Cinema Grill has purchased two former iPic locations in the Chicago suburbs of Chicago suburbs of South Barrington and Bolingbrook, with plans to reopen them both by March, the company announced Monday.

Star Cinema Grill will add premium recliner seats with seat heaters and seat-side food and beverage service to all seats, in all auditoriums. The menus will also be updated to include items like “Everything But The Bagel Hummus,” Southwest Eggrolls, Hand Battered Chicken Tenders, and Strawberry Chicken & Walnut Salad.

Houston-based Star Cinema Grill currently operates nine cinemas in Texas and Illinois.

“We are so excited to add two more fantastic theaters to our chain, and give our Hollywood Palms Cinema brand some sister locations in the Chicago market,” Star Cinema Grill’s Vice President of Development Jason Ostrow said in a press release. “These former iPic’s are a great brand fit and we look forward to getting both locations back open as quickly as possible.”

 

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Sunday, January 23, 2022

Weekend Estimates: Spider-Man: No Way Home ($14.13M) Reclaims No. 1 Spot From Scream ($12.4M); Webslinger Sequel is Now 6th-Highest-Grossing Film Globally at $1.69B

It was a neck-and-neck race for the top spot at the box office this weekend, with two holdovers – last weekend’s No. 1 film Scream and the six-week-old Spider-Man: No Way Home – vying for bragging rights over a slow frame in which two wide openers failed to make much of an impression.

Emerging victorious was Spider-Man: No Way Home, which took in an estimated $14.13M, a drop of just 30% from last weekend. That brings the Marvel blockbuster to $721.01M, putting it in fourth place all-time domestically (the No. 3 spot is held by Avatar, which has a lifetime gross of $760.5M in North America).

Globally, Spider-Man: No Way Home reached a new milestone, surpassing the lifetime grosses of both The Lion King ($1.66B) and Jurassic World ($1.67B) to become the No. 6 all-time grosser at the worldwide box office. No Way Home brought in an estimated $27.7M from 63 markets this weekend for a global tally of $1.69B, $970.1M of which came from overseas. Top markets to date include the U.K. ($116.9M), Mexico ($73.4M), South Korea ($60.6M), France ($59.9M), Australia ($53.2M) and Brazil ($52.4M). Globally, No Way Home is now the ninth-highest-grossing film of all time in the IMAX format, where it took in an estimated $2.7M this weekend for a worldwide tally of $105M.

Last weekend’s top finisher, Paramount’s Scream “re-quel” (sequel/reboot), took in an estimated $12.4M in its sophomore frame, down 59% from its $30.02M three-day opening. That’s a fairly steep drop, though certainly not unusual for a horror film given the typically frontloaded nature of the genre at the box office. Nevertheless, the meta-slasher has a healthy gross of $51.35M to date and has already far surpassed the $38.2M lifetime total of 2011’s Scream 4, the last entry in the long-running horror series.

Scream grossed an estimated $10.2M from 54 markets, bringing its international total to $33.6M and its global tally to $84.95M.

Third place again went to Universal’s Sing 2, which grossed an estimated $5.71M in its fifth weekend of release (down just 28%). The leggy animated sequel has a healthy $128.41M to date. Overseas, Sing 2 grossed an estimated $12.8M, including No. 1 openings in Germany ($2.98M) and Poland ($2.42M), bringing its international total to $112.8M and its global total to $241.21M.

Debuting softly in fourth place was the Universal-distributed Redeeming Love (from Nthibah Pictures, Mission Pictures and Pinnacle Peak Pictures), which took in an estimated $3.71M in its opening frame from 1,903 locations. The faith-based romantic drama based on the novel of the same name was dinged by terrible reviews (it currently sits at just 11% on Rotten Tomatoes), while its opening gross was no doubt affected by the reticence of its target audience (women over 35) to return to theaters amid the ongoing pandemic.

No. 5 went to Disney/20th Century Studios’ The King’s Man, which grossed an estimated $1.8M in its fifth weekend of release for a total of $31.5M to date. Overseas, the franchise entry grossed an estimated $6.2M from 45 markets, bringing its international total to $73.8M and its global total to $105.3M.

Closely behind that in sixth place was Universal’s The 355, which took in $1.6M in its third weekend for a total of $11.08M.

Lionsgate’s American Underdog took seventh place with an estimated $1.23M, down just 22% from last weekend. The Kurt Warner biopic has $23.13M to date.

Gravitas Ventures’ The King’s Daughter barely made an impression despite debuting in 2,170 locations, with a meager opening gross of $750k. Like Redeeming Love, the action-fantasy starring Pierce Brosnan suffered from lackluster reviews (it sits at 24% on Rotten Tomatoes).

Ninth and tenth place went to West Side Story and Licorice Pizza, which finished the weekend with an estimated $698k and $683k, respectively. The total for West Side Story now stands at $35.05M after seven weeks, while Licorice Pizza has $10.79M after nine weeks.


Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates: January 21-23, 2022

Title Estimated weekend % change Locations Location change Average Total Weekend Distributor
Spider-Man: No Way Home $14,125,000 -30% 3,705 -220 $3,812 $721,010,988 6 Sony Pictures
Scream $12,400,000 -59% 3,666 2 $3,382 $51,347,929 2 Paramount
Sing 2 $5,710,000 -28% 3,434 -147 $1,663 $128,411,630 5 Universal
Redeeming Love $3,710,000   1,903   $1,950 $3,710,000 1 Universal
The King’s Man $1,779,000 -20% 2,360 -150 $754 $31,510,014 5 20th Century
The 355 $1,600,000 -30% 2,609 -536 $613 $11,081,010 3 Universal
American Underdog $1,225,000 -22% 2,164 -348 $566 $23,132,748 5 Lionsgate
The King’s Daughter $750,000   2,170   $346 $750,000 1 Gravitas Ventures
West Side Story $698,000 -25% 1,290 -170 $541 $35,051,495 7 20th Century
Licorice Pizza $683,357 -22% 772 n/c $885 $10,786,005 9 United Artists
Ghostbusters: Afterlife $625,000 -18% 1,061 -141 $589 $127,077,539 10 Sony Pictures
Belle $550,290 -65% 1,180 -158 $466 $2,744,021 2 GKIDS
The Matrix Resurrections $435,000 -46% 1,009 -716 $431 $36,600,074 5 Warner Bros.
Nightmare Alley $236,000 -9% 400 -150 $590 $9,701,281 6 Searchlight
Encanto $232,000 -25% 450 -210 $516 $93,401,292 9 Walt Disney
Venom: Let There be Carnage $175,000 -57% 725 -710 $241 $213,480,773 17 Sony Pictures
Drive My Car $96,250 26% 96 31 $1,003 $649,489 9 Janus Films
Flee $36,380 2664% 37 35 $983 $100,063 8 Neon
Red Rocket $31,145 -22% 56 -26 $556 $1,039,866 7 A24
Belfast $30,000 -1% 63 -8 $476 $7,057,440 11 Focus Features
The French Dispatch $18,000 -4% 40 5 $450 $16,114,473 14 Searchlight
Eternals $10,000 -54% 60 -25 $167 $164,865,174 12 Walt Disney

The post Weekend Estimates: <em>Spider-Man: No Way Home</em> ($14.13M) Reclaims No. 1 Spot From <em>Scream</em> ($12.4M); Webslinger Sequel is Now 6th-Highest-Grossing Film Globally at $1.69B appeared first on Boxoffice.



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Friday, January 21, 2022

Paramount Pushes Mission: Impossible 7 to 2023, Mission: Impossible 8 to 2024

Audiences around the world will have to wait an additional year to see Tom Cruise ride a motorcycle off a cliff in Mission: Impossible 7. Paramount has pushed back the release of the next two installments of the Mission: Impossible franchise by a year. The seventh entry in the series, previously set for a September 30 debut, has been rescheduled to July 14, 2023. The eight film in the franchise has been pushed from July 7, 2023 to June 28, 2024.

Paramount has also moved the release of its animated Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles feature, previously dated for August 11, 2023, to August 4, 2023. The upcoming A Quiet Place sequel, as yet untitled, is moving from March 31, 2023 to September 22, 2023.

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Long Range Box Office Forecast: Uncharted, Death on the Nile, Jackass Forever, and Q1 Prospects through Presidents’ Day Frame

Although the new year has begun rather slowly in terms of new releases, the late winter and early spring movie calendar isn’t far off as we reach the back end of January.

It will still be a few more weeks before the box office truly ramps up to consistent levels again, but February will at least begin an upward progression that — as usual, pending the state of the pandemic — should see a steadier state of mainstream films bring in valuable business for exhibitors.

This week’s return of the Long Range report looks four weeks out with an eye on major releases through Presidents’ Day weekend.

Based on early January trends and projections for the next month, it should be around that time frame when domestic box office approaches the $500 million threshold for 2022 — a feat which didn’t occur until the middle of May last year due to the prolonged impact of pandemic closures and slim release slates.

Jackass Forever
February 4

PROS:

  • The Jackass franchise was a runaway box office smash during the brand’s heyday, earning more than $356 million domestically and $488 million globally across four films between 2002 and 2013.
  • Appeal to male audiences appears to be healthy as one of the few straight-up comedies to release during the pandemic so far. Nostalgia is likely to drive both some of the series’ older fans and today’s younger generation out to theaters for this latest entry.
  • The release slate has been virtually empty, outside of the successful Scream sequel, since the 2021 holiday season wrapped up. Some pent-up demand is likely for a short comedy with built-in IP.

CONS:

  • It’s fair to question whether or not Jackass Forever can reach the box office heights of its predecessors. A new generation of youth has emerged since the last film, 2013’s Bad Grandpa, opened to $32 million and legged out to $102 million. That kind of staying power may not be likely here since the three traditional Jackass films — particularly the second and third entries — were far more front-loaded, but it doesn’t need to be for such inexpensive films.
  • Jackass was a franchise that came of age at a very different time in the entertainment world. Since the rise of streaming and other entertainment mediums like TikTok, it remains to be seen how much of the target audience not only remains interested, but also what share of that crowd will rush out to theaters versus wait for a streaming release.
  • Although not necessarily connected to Jackass directly, the box office misfire of 2018’s Action Park (starring Johnny Knoxville) is worth keeping in mind alongside the aforementioned generational concerns.

Moonfall
February 4

PROS:

  • A large-scale, escapist action flick with star names and appeal to a somewhat more diverse audience on the same weekend as Jackass Forever could make for a solid counter-programming strategy, especially with a premium format presence in IMAX.

CONS:

  • Initial marketing and trailers have generated mixed social media traction with preliminary tracking metrics similar to those of 2017’s Geostorm. Audience interest in the “global destruction” sub-genre, which has waned from its late 90s and early 00s peak, will be tested with this kind of release.

Death on the Nile
February 11

PROS:

  • 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express was a solid hit for Fox and star/director Kenneth Branagh thanks to excellent marketing and built-in brand appeal among Agatha Christie fans. The film earned nearly $103 million domestically and $353 million worldwide.
  • With another ensemble cast of star names, and after multiple trailers and release delays over the past two years, the sequel’s exposure is certainly respectable enough for a mid-range film.

CONS:

  • While some diminished returns were expected for a somewhat lesser-known (but still popular) novel before the pandemic became a consideration, the target audience is crucial to consider. Orient Express drew moviegoers predominately female (56 percent) and over the age of 35 (51 percent) on opening weekend over four years ago. That crowd remains the most cautious during the pandemic box office recovery era.

Marry Me
February 11

PROS:

  • Jennifer Lopez has a solid track record in the romantic-comedy genre, and most recently broke out yet again with 2019’s Hustlers. Coupled with Owen Wilson in a co-leading role, this film is well-timed for date night moviegoers around Valentine’s Day (which lands the Monday after opening weekend).

CONS:

  • Once again, this is a film targeted toward the audience most slowly returning to cinemas during the pandemic. Coupled with a simultaneous free streaming release on Peacock, box office earnings are unlikely to reach the heights of past successful rom-coms which opened this time of year.

Dog
February 18

PROS:

  • A feel-good “buddy” movie with a star name and comedic touch could find strong appeal among families returning to movie theaters. Channing Tatum provides a strong drawing element, and the four-day holiday weekend is primed for parents and kids to turn out. Strong legs, rather than a large debut, should be expected.

CONS:

  • The proliferation of dog-centric movies (A Dog’s Journey, A Dog’s Purpose, A Dog’s Way Home, The Art of Racing in the Rain, etc.) in recent years could have some minor impact on overall demand regardless of the pandemic market. Forecasts are also volatile due to the evolving nature of the family audience during the pandemic.

Uncharted
February 18

PROS:

  • Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg provide an integral star presence to this video game adaptation, with the former notably fresh off the phenomenal success of Spider-Man: No Way Home. Combined with the best-selling game’s built-in fan base, appeal to a somewhat diverse range of young and adult audiences could be in store.
  • Presidents’ Day weekend is timely for this kind of action-adventure release. Uncharted‘s preliminary social metrics aren’t far behind those of 2015’s Kingsman: The Secret Service when it bowed to $41.8 million over the same four-day holiday frame. Early tracking against 2018’s Rampage is also comparable, and a strong PLF footprint will also be advantageous for Uncharted.

CONS:

  • Video game adaptations have a sorted history, to say the least. Until 2019’s Detective Pikachu, none had exceeded a $40 million three-day debut outside of 2001’s Lara Croft: Tomb Raider ($47.7 million).
  • Trailer views and social imprints are considerably high thanks in part to a trailer attachment with No Way Home throughout its record-shattering theatrical run, but sentiment scores have left something to be desired. This could indicate reviews and word of mouth will be even more important for any breakout chances at the box office, especially as it opens just two weeks before The Batman.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 1/21/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
1/28/2022 You Won’t Be Alone         n/a Focus Features
2/4/2022 Jackass Forever $23,000,000 – $33,000,000   $48,000,000 – $68,000,000   3,200 Paramount Pictures
2/4/2022 Moonfall $8,000,000 – $15,000,000   $20,000,000 – $50,000,000   3,200 Lionsgate
2/11/2022 The Beatles: Get Back – The Rooftop Concert           Disney
2/11/2022 Death on the Nile $14,000,000 – $19,000,000   $45,000,000 – $70,000,000     Disney / 20th Century Studios
2/11/2022 Marry Me $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   $22,000,000 – $42,000,000     Universal Pictures
2/18/2022 Dog $8,000,000 – $15,000,000   $30,000,000 – $65,000,000     MGM
2/18/2022 Uncharted $25,000,000 – $40,000,000   $65,000,000 – $105,000,000     Sony Pictures / Columbia
2/25/2022 Cyrano (Wide Expansion)           United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022 The Devil’s Light           Lionsgate
2/25/2022 The Outfit           Focus Features
3/4/2022 The Batman           Warner Bros. Pictures
3/4/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris           Focus Features
3/11/2022 Untitled Universal Musical Event           Universal Pictures
3/18/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era           Focus Features
3/18/2022 Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre           STXfilms
3/18/2022 The Unbreakable Boy           Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/25/2022 The Lost City           Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor           STXfilms
4/1/2022 Easter Sunday           Universal Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius           Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Walt Disney Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2           Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2           Paramount Pictures
4/15/2022 Eiffel           Blue Fox Entertainment
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1           Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman           Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent           Lionsgate
4/29/2022 65           Sony / Columbia Pictures
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness           Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project 2022 1           Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 DC Super Pets           Warner Bros. Pictures
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers           Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick           Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion           Universal Pictures
6/10/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
6/17/2022 Lightyear           Disney / Pixar
6/17/2022 Oh Hell No           Sony Pictures
6/24/2022 The Black Phone           Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis           Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project           Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding           Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru           Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder           Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest           STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train           Sony Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope           Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Under the Boardwalk           Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing           Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 Black Adam           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3           Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Secret Headquarters           Paramount Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight           Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Bros           Universal Pictures
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast           Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride           Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Samaritan           United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot           Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Distant           Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story           Lionsgate
9/16/2022 The Woman King           Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling           Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish           Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3           Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Mission: Impossible 7           Paramount Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)           Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise           Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
11/4/2022 The Flash           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees           Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell           Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever           Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile           Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4           Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Creed III           MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans           Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World           Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night           Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)            
12/16/2022 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom           Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 Mario           Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody           Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6           Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)            

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

The post Long Range Box Office Forecast: <em>Uncharted</em>, <em>Death on the Nile</em>, <em>Jackass Forever</em>, and Q1 Prospects through Presidents’ Day Frame appeared first on Boxoffice.



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