This week’s report is a condensed one with no wide releases currently set for the March 11 frame, in large part because studios are avoiding as much spillover demand for March 4’s The Batman as they possibly can.
Still, as the slow-but-improved-from-2021 start to the new year marches into the second half of February, the domestic market is preparing for another much needed uptick in business. North American grosses will reach the $500 million threshold this weekend, a figure that wasn’t surpassed until the middle of May in 2021. Pre-pandemic comparisons remain moot, though, as the same threshold was hit in the middle of January 2020 — two months before the world changed.
Following this current frame’s opening of Death on the Nile, Marry Me, and Blacklight, Presidents Day weekend will hope to attract moviegoers in the post-Super Bowl portion of the winter calendar. The holiday will be advantageous for bringing out families to the Channing Tatum-led Dog, although parents and adult women remain a tough consumer base to predict during the waning pandemic. They’ll be key to that film’s potential, which remains a candidate to enjoy a long runway at the box office.
Sony’s Uncharted adaptation remains the marquee release of February. With no reviews yet available, we’re somewhat more cautious in expectations for opening weekend and beyond, although forecasts haven’t shifted significantly at this point.
February 25 will then see the wide releases of Cyrano and Studio 666, followed by the highly anticipated debut of The Batman. Tickets for the DC film’s IMAX Fan Events on March 1 went on sale earlier this week, followed by the beginning of sales for remaining shows (starting with special Wednesday previews) on Thursday morning. We’ll be adjusting forecasts as needed in the weeks ahead as buzz evolves.
Should The Batman live up to expectations, the domestic market should again find its footing in the run up to spring and summer. Despite taking a month and a half to reach $500 million, the $1 billion mark could be achievable by the middle or end of March barring any significant release delays or changes before then.
Next week’s long range report will resume normal coverage with wide releases back on the docket, including Guy Ritchie and STX’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, Focus Features’ The Outfit, and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy each slated to open March 18.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/11/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 2/18/2022 | Dog | $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $65,000,000 | 3,100 | MGM |
| 2/18/2022 | Uncharted | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $85,000,000 | 4,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia |
| 2/25/2022 | Cyrano (Wide Expansion) | n/a | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 2/25/2022 | Studio 666 | n/a | Open Road Films | ||
| 3/4/2022 | The Batman | $135,000,000 – $185,000,000 | $340,000,000 – $540,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |
| 3/11/2022 | Untitled Universal Musical Event | Universal Pictures | |||
| 3/18/2022 | Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre | STXfilms | |||
| 3/18/2022 | The Outfit | Focus Features | |||
| 3/18/2022 | The Unbreakable Boy | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company | |||
| 3/25/2022 | The Lost City | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 4/1/2022 | The Contractor | STXfilms | |||
| 4/1/2022 | Morbius | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||
| 4/8/2022 | Ambulance | Universal Pictures | |||
| 4/8/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Walt Disney Pictures | |||
| 4/8/2022 | Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 4/8/2022 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 4/15/2022 | Eiffel | Blue Fox Entertainment | |||
| 4/15/2022 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 4/15/2022 | Father Stu | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||
| 4/15/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 4/22/2022 | The Bad Guys | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||
| 4/22/2022 | The Northman | Focus Features | |||
| 4/22/2022 | The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent | Lionsgate | |||
| 4/29/2022 | 65 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 5/6/2022 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||
| 5/13/2022 | Firestarter | Universal Pictures | |||
| 5/20/2022 | DC Super Pets | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 5/20/2022 | Downton Abbey: A New Era | Focus Features | |||
| 5/27/2022 | Bob’s Burgers | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 5/27/2022 | Top Gun Maverick | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 6/3/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 6/10/2022 | Jurassic World: Dominion | Universal Pictures | |||
| 6/10/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Disney / Searchlight | |||
| 6/17/2022 | Lightyear | Disney / Pixar | |||
| 6/17/2022 | Oh Hell No | Sony Pictures | |||
| 6/24/2022 | The Black Phone | Universal Pictures | |||
| 6/24/2022 | Elvis | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 6/24/2022 | Untitled Blumhouse Project | Universal Pictures | |||
| 6/29/2022 | Shotgun Wedding | Lionsgate | |||
| 7/1/2022 | Minions: The Rise of Gru | Universal Pictures | |||
| 7/8/2022 | Thor: Love and Thunder | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||
| 7/15/2022 | Bed Rest | STXfilms | |||
| 7/15/2022 | Bullet Train | Sony Pictures | |||
| 7/15/2022 | Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris | Focus Features | |||
| 7/22/2022 | Blazing Samurai | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 7/22/2022 | Nope | Universal Pictures | |||
| 7/22/2022 | Where the Crawdads Sing | Sony / 3000 Pictures | |||
| 7/29/2022 | Black Adam | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | Universal Pictures | |||
| 8/5/2022 | Secret Headquarters | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 8/5/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 8/12/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Disney / Searchlight | |||
| 8/12/2022 | Man from Toronto | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | Universal Pictures | |||
| 8/26/2022 | The Bride | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||
| 8/26/2022 | Samaritan | United Artists Releasing | |||
| 9/2/2022 | (no releases scheduled) | ||||
| 9/9/2022 | Salem’s Lot | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 9/16/2022 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | Lionsgate | |||
| 9/16/2022 | Distant | Universal Pictures | |||
| 9/16/2022 | The Woman King | Sony / TriStar Pictures | |||
| 9/23/2022 | Don’t Worry Darling | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 9/23/2022 | Puss In Boots: The Last Wish | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||
| 9/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 3 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 9/30/2022 | Bros | Universal Pictures | |||
| 10/7/2022 | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) | Sony Pictures | |||
| 10/14/2022 | Halloween Ends | Universal Pictures | |||
| 10/14/2022 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | Lionsgate | |||
| 10/21/2022 | Ticket to Paradise | Universal Pictures | |||
| 10/21/2022 | Untitled Paramount | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 10/28/2022 | The Devil’s Light | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/4/2022 | The Flash | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled Bee Gees | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled David O. Russell | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||
| 11/18/2022 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 11/18/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | Universal Pictures | |||
| 11/18/2022 | Thirteen Lives | MGM / United Artists Releasing | |||
| 11/23/2022 | Creed III | MGM | |||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans | Universal Pictures | |||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | Walt Disney Pictures | |||
| 12/2/2022 | Violent Night | Universal Pictures | |||
| 12/9/2022 | (no releases scheduled) | ||||
| 12/16/2022 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 12/21/2022 | Avatar 2 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 12/21/2022 | Mario | Universal Pictures | |||
| 12/23/2022 | I Wanna Dance With Somebody | Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures | |||
| 12/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 6 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 12/30/2022 | (no releases scheduled) |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
The post Long Range Box Office Forecast: Domestic Market Approaches $500M YTD as <em>The Batman</em>, <em>Uncharted</em>, & <em>Dog</em> Hope to Provide Late Winter Momentum appeared first on Boxoffice.
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