This week’s report takes an early look at how director Guy Ritchie’s latest ensemble film is tracking in the weeks leading up to a planned March 18 release in domestic theaters.
That same weekend is also slated for the release of Focus Features’ The Outfit and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy, but we are not currently providing forecasts on either.
Up-to-date forecast ranges for wide releases through mid-March are available in the chart below.
Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre
STXfilms
March 18
PROS:
- Guy Ritchie’s fan base has proven consistent in recent years with the relatively successful runs of The Gentlemen and Wrath of Man, both of which returned to the filmmaker’s genre roots in many ways.
The former bowed to $10.65 million in January 2020 before legging out to $36.5 million stateside, even with the pandemic cutting short the back end of its run. Wrath of Man, meanwhile, performed similarly with an $8.3 million / $27.5 million split last May just as major market theaters were reopening and vaccines were in the nascent weeks of wide distribution.
- Male-driven thrillers have been workhorses during the pandemic recovery era for theater owners. The older portion of that demographic will be a focal point here, and the added comedic aspect should help it appeal to fans of The Gentlemen.
- Although marketing has yet to fully hit its stride, its trailer release and early tracking are encouraging. A lack of direct competition, beyond opening two weeks later than The Batman, should also aid what is expected to be a theatrically exclusive run.
CONS:
- The aforementioned proximity of The Batman shouldn’t be discounted entirely as that film will still be going strong in its third frame should reception and word of mouth deliver. The Lost City also opens one week later, which could moderately cut into the target audience here.
- As a fairly niche genre project from Ritchie, and another modest budget to match, expectations should be moderated and focused beyond opening weekend performance.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/18/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 2/25/2022 | Cyrano (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | 750 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 2/25/2022 | The Godfather (50 Years) | n/a | n/a | 156 | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 2/25/2022 | Studio 666 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Open Road Films | ||
| 3/4/2022 | The Batman | $135,000,000 – $175,000,000 | -2% | $340,000,000 – $490,000,000 | -6% | 4,300 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 3/18/2022 | Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | NEW | $22,000,000 – $42,000,000 | NEW | STXfilms | |
| 3/18/2022 | The Outfit | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 3/18/2022 | The Unbreakable Boy | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company | |||
| 3/25/2022 | The Lost City | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 4/1/2022 | The Contractor | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 4/1/2022 | Morbius | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 4/8/2022 | Ambulance | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 4/8/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Walt Disney Pictures | |||||
| 4/8/2022 | Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2 | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 4/8/2022 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 4/15/2022 | Eiffel | Blue Fox Entertainment | |||||
| 4/15/2022 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 4/15/2022 | Father Stu | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 4/15/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 4/22/2022 | The Bad Guys | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||||
| 4/22/2022 | The Northman | Focus Features | |||||
| 4/22/2022 | The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent | Lionsgate | |||||
| 4/29/2022 | 65 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||||
| 5/6/2022 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 5/13/2022 | Firestarter | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 5/20/2022 | DC Super Pets | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 5/20/2022 | Downton Abbey: A New Era | Focus Features | |||||
| 5/27/2022 | Bob’s Burgers | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 5/27/2022 | Top Gun Maverick | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 6/10/2022 | Jurassic World: Dominion | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/10/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Disney / Searchlight | |||||
| 6/17/2022 | Lightyear | Disney / Pixar | |||||
| 6/17/2022 | Oh Hell No | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | The Black Phone | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | Elvis | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | Untitled Blumhouse Project | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/29/2022 | Shotgun Wedding | Lionsgate | |||||
| 7/1/2022 | Minions: The Rise of Gru | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 7/8/2022 | Thor: Love and Thunder | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Bed Rest | STXfilms | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Bullet Train | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris | Focus Features | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Blazing Samurai | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Nope | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Where the Crawdads Sing | Sony / 3000 Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | Black Adam | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | Venegance | Focus Features | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Secret Headquarters | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 8/12/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Disney / Searchlight | |||||
| 8/12/2022 | Man from Toronto | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | The Bride | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | Samaritan | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 9/2/2022 | (no releases scheduled) | ||||||
| 9/9/2022 | Salem’s Lot | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | Lionsgate | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Distant | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Woman King | Sony / TriStar Pictures | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Don’t Worry Darling | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Puss In Boots: The Last Wish | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 3 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 9/30/2022 | Bros | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/7/2022 | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 10/14/2022 | Halloween Ends | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/14/2022 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | Lionsgate | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Ticket to Paradise | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Untitled Paramount | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 10/28/2022 | The Devil’s Light | Lionsgate | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | The Flash | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled Bee Gees | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled David O. Russell | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Thirteen Lives | MGM / United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Creed III | MGM | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | Walt Disney Pictures | |||||
| 12/2/2022 | Violent Night | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 12/9/2022 | (no releases scheduled) | ||||||
| 12/16/2022 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | Avatar 2 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | Mario | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 12/23/2022 | I Wanna Dance With Somebody | Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures | |||||
| 12/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 6 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 12/30/2022 | (no releases scheduled) |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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