This week’s report continues our look ahead to April, easily the most prolific month of 2022 so far in terms of major releases, and the busiest pandemic era calendar since the final three months of last year.
In addition to initial forecasts for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Father Stu, other upcoming releases and their preliminary targets — some recently revised — can be found in the chart below, per usual.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Warner Bros.
April 15, 2022
PROS:
- The Harry Potter fan base remains a tight-knit force more than twenty years after the first film. They will certainly be the driver of opening weekend attendance, especially young women. Good Friday and Easter weekend should benefit early business to some extent as well.
- Trailer impact and social sentiment among fans are cautiously positive for this three-quel. The two official trailers have accumulated over 31 million YouTube views over the past few months.
- Fans are particularly interested to see not just the increased role of Jude Law’s “younger” Dumbledore, but the latest recasting of the series’ primary villain — Grindelwald — with Mads Mikkelsen taking over the role from Johnny Depp, and Colin Farrell before him.
- With theatrical exclusivity and a premium format footprint that will include IMAX, this third film has the final half of April to make its run before Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness drops in May.
CONS:
- 2018’s Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was the first notable misfire for the Wizarding World franchise. Its $62.2 million domestic opening was down 16 percent from Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($74.4 million), while both reviews (36 percent) and audience reception (54 percent) sank staying power.
Crimes ultimately finished with just under $160 million in North America, the first film in the Potter and Beasts combined franchise of ten films to fall short of $200 million.
- Dumbledore opens in the first crowded corridor of the pandemic since the end of last year, so competition will be notable. Family audience turnout is expected to gravitate toward Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (and The Bad Guys, opening April 22), while male audiences will likely be focused on a combination of films around this time.
- With adult women remaining the primary holdout of the moviegoing audience during the waning pandemic, this sequel will test both their enthusiasm for another Fantastic Beasts movie as well as a return to the theater this spring. Recent backlash from some fans toward public social commentary made by Potter author J.K. Rowling may or may not be a factor for some viewers deciding when or if to see this sequel.
- With surrounding competition and the aforementioned Doctor Strange sequel around the corner, this chapter is likely to struggle drawing the kind of “event” prowess the franchise was once known for. As such, it’s probably safe to expect another front-loaded run.
Father Stu
Sony Pictures
April 13, 2022
PROS:
- Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson could be an appealing duo for adult audiences looking for original dramatic content, this one based on a true story and exclusive to theaters upon release.
- Adult men are the target audience here, a somewhat reliable demo throughout the pandemic, but faith-based moviegoers of all backgrounds could be important and give the film some sleeper potential given the subject matter of the film and its pre-Easter debut.
CONS:
- This is, again, the type of low-to-mid-tier film that doesn’t need blockbuster numbers to succeed, but it nonetheless represents a test for the kind of content audiences will gravitate toward and prioritize a theatrical viewing for.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/17/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 3/25/2022 | The Lost City | $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 | +5% | $51,000,000 – $84,000,000 | 4,000 | Paramount Pictures | |
| 4/1/2022 | The Contractor | $500,000 – $2,000,000 | $1,000,000 – $5,000,000 | TBD | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 4/1/2022 | Morbius | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | +11% | $95,000,000 – $135,000,000 | +11% | 4,200 | Sony Pictures / Columbia |
| 4/8/2022 | Ambulance | $12,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 4/8/2022 | Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide) | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | A24 | |||
| 4/8/2022 | Sonic the Hedgehog 2 | $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 | $115,000,000 – $165,000,000 | Paramount Pictures | |||
| 4/13/2022 | Father Stu | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | NEW | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | NEW | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |
| 4/15/2022 | Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore | $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 | NEW | $100,000,000 – $140,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. Pictures | |
| 4/22/2022 | The Bad Guys | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||||
| 4/22/2022 | The Northman | Focus Features | |||||
| 4/22/2022 | The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent | Lionsgate | |||||
| 4/29/2022 | Memory | Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films | |||||
| 5/6/2022 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 5/13/2022 | Firestarter | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 5/20/2022 | Downton Abbey: A New Era | Focus Features | |||||
| 5/27/2022 | Bob’s Burgers | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 5/27/2022 | Top Gun Maverick | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Eiffel | Blue Fox Entertainment | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 6/3/2022 | Watcher | IFC Films | |||||
| 6/10/2022 | Jurassic World: Dominion | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/17/2022 | Lightyear | Disney / Pixar | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | The Black Phone | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | Elvis | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 6/24/2022 | Untitled Blumhouse Project | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 6/29/2022 | Shotgun Wedding | Lionsgate | |||||
| 7/1/2022 | Minions: The Rise of Gru | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 7/8/2022 | Thor: Love and Thunder | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Bed Rest | STXfilms | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Bullet Train | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 7/15/2022 | Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris | Focus Features | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Nope | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 7/22/2022 | Where the Crawdads Sing | Sony / 3000 Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | DC League of Super-Pets | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 7/29/2022 | Venegance | Focus Features | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Secret Headquarters | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 8/5/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 8/12/2022 | Untitled Searchlight | Disney / Searchlight | |||||
| 8/12/2022 | Man from Toronto | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | The Bride | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | Fear | Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG) | |||||
| 8/26/2022 | Samaritan | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 9/2/2022 | Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. | Focus Features | |||||
| 9/9/2022 | Salem’s Lot | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | Lionsgate | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | Distant | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 9/16/2022 | The Woman King | Sony / TriStar Pictures | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Don’t Worry Darling | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Puss In Boots: The Last Wish | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | |||||
| 9/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 3 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 9/30/2022 | Bros | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/7/2022 | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) | Sony Pictures | |||||
| 10/14/2022 | Halloween Ends | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/14/2022 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | Lionsgate | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | The Banshees of Inisherin | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Black Adam | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Ticket to Paradise | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 10/21/2022 | Untitled Paramount | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 10/28/2022 | The Devil’s Light | Lionsgate | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled Bee Gees | Paramount Pictures | |||||
| 11/4/2022 | Untitled David O. Russell | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 11/18/2022 | Thirteen Lives | MGM / United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Creed III | MGM | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | Walt Disney Pictures | |||||
| 12/2/2022 | Violent Night | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 12/9/2022 | (no releases scheduled) | ||||||
| 12/16/2022 | Shazam! Fury of the Gods | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | Avatar 2 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | I Wanna Dance With Somebody | Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures | |||||
| 12/21/2022 | Mario | Universal Pictures | |||||
| 12/23/2022 | Untitled 20th Century 2022 6 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||||
| 12/25/2022 | A Man Called Otto | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||||
| 12/30/2022 | (no releases scheduled) |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
The post Long Range Box Office Forecast: <em>Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore</em> and <em>Father Stu</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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