This week’s report takes an early look at four releases slated to open August 9 in the late summer corridor, all of which are based on existing IP.
PROS:
- Based on another best-selling book, The Art of Racing in the Rain will adapt author Garth Stein’s family-friendly story in hopes of achieving the kind of success enjoyed by the big screen version of W. Bruce Cameron’s A Dog’s Purpose two years ago. This Is Us star Milo Ventimiglia and the voice of Kevin Costner could add some star appeal.
- Dora and the Lost City Gold brings to the famous Dora the Explorer franchise to life on the big screen for the first time. Not only could this adventure film present a strong option for kids and tweens before school starts back, we expect strong interest from Latinx families in general — in part thanks to stars Isabela Moner (Instant Family, Transformers: The Last Knight) and Eugenio Derbez (Overboard, Instructions Not Included).
- The Kitchen unites a strong female ensemble of Melissa McCarthy, Elisabeth Moss, and Tiffany Haddish in an adaptation of the DC/Vertigo comic book series. That trio could help the film counter-program among adults if positive reviews/word of mouth come to fruition.
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark adapts Alvin Schwartz’s series of horror books aimed at children, which will be most familiar to older millennials given their publication in the 1980s.
CONS:
- Dog-centric films have proliferated theaters in recent years, and have generally seen diminishing returns. While A Dog’s Purpose was a solid success, this year’s A Dog’s Way Home and A Dog’s Journey have performed more modestly. That trend may easily carry over to Art of Racing.
- Dora‘s primary source of competition will open one week later in the form of The Angry Birds Movie 2, which will hope to draw young kids during the final days of summer. The potential staying power of July’s The Lion King could also be a minor factor even in mid-August.
- Adult-aimed adaptations of relatively obscure comic book titles have had a mixed history trying to find commercial success at the box office. While films like RED and V for Vendetta stood out in the past, examples like The Losers and Jonah Hex give enough reason for caution. The Kitchen also boasts a similar premise as last year’s Widows, which fell below box office hopes despite critical acclaim — while McCarthy herself recently wasn’t enough to change the fate of another late summer, adult-aimed, under-performer (The Happytime Murders).
- A plethora of horror films will be opening this summer, including The Boy 2 in late July and 47 Meters Down: Uncaged one week after Scary Stories debuts. Given those circumstances and early trailer reactions, we’re cautious on forecasts at this time.
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 6/21/2019 | Anna | $4,500,000 | -10% | $11,000,000 | -23% | 2,150 | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 6/21/2019 | Child’s Play (2019) | $18,000,000 | $42,500,000 | 2,500 | Orion Pictures | ||
| 6/21/2019 | Toy Story 4 | $151,000,000 | $495,000,000 | 4,400 | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 6/26/2019 | Annabelle Comes Home | $31,000,000 | $101,000,000 | 3,500 | Warner Bros. / New Line | ||
| 6/28/2019 | Yesterday | n/a | n/a | n/a | Universal | ||
| 7/2/2019 | Spider-Man: Far from Home | $120,000,000 | $405,000,000 | Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios | |||
| 7/3/2019 | Midsommar | n/a | n/a | A24 | |||
| 7/12/2019 | Crawl | $18,000,000 | $47,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 7/12/2019 | Stuber | $17,500,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 7/19/2019 | The Lion King (2019) | $201,000,000 | $650,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 7/26/2019 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | n/a | n/a | STX | |||
| 7/26/2019 | Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood | $50,000,000 | $165,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/2/2019 | Hobbs & Shaw | $100,000,000 | $245,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 8/9/2019 | The Art of Racing In the Rain | $8,500,000 | NEW | $32,000,000 | NEW | Fox | |
| 8/9/2019 | Brian Banks | n/a | n/a | Bleecker Street | |||
| 8/9/2019 | Dora and the Lost City of Gold | $28,000,000 | NEW | $85,000,000 | NEW | Paramount | |
| 8/9/2019 | The Kitchen (2019) | $11,500,000 | NEW | $34,500,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. / New Line | |
| 8/9/2019 | Scary Stories to Tell In the Dark | $10,000,000 | NEW | $26,500,000 | NEW | Lionsgate / CBS Films |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
The post Long Range Forecast: <em>The Art of Racing In the Rain</em>, <em>Dora and the Lost City of Gold</em>, <em>The Kitchen</em>, & <em>Scary Stories to Tell In the Dark</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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