For the second straight weekend, Hollywood is pumping out a handful of new releases in hopes of catching what little remains of the summer movie season. Our analysis heading into the weekend:
PROS:
- Good Boys boasts considerable critical acclaim (83 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), which isn’t always typical for R-rated comedies. The added branding of Seth Rogen in recent ads and his Point Grey production company could also be helpful after their success with films like Blockers and Sausage Party, the former of which has become a high-end comp (when considering the studio’s $12 million+ expectation) ahead of release.
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 brings the first animated option for parents with little kids since last month’s The Lion King, which has burnt off a significant amount of demand as it heads into its fifth frame. The added brand recognition of the video game franchise could also give it a boost with families.
- 47 Meters Down: Uncaged will look to leverage goodwill from its sleeper hit predecessor, which earned an impressive 3.96 multiplier off its $11.2 million debut two summers ago for a very profitable $44.3 million domestic run.
- Blinded By the Light marks the latest musically-inspired crowd-pleaser in the wake of Yesterday, Rocketman, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star Is Born. Bruce Springsteen’s older fan base could turn out in healthy numbers.
- Where’d You Go, Bernadette‘s biggest advantages will be the star attraction of Cate Blanchett paired with veteran filmmaker Richard Linklater, in addition to the source novel by Maria Semple. The target 40+ female audience will be key here.
CONS:
- Good Boys‘ biggest obstacle will be one similarly faced by Booksmart earlier this summer, that being the fact that much of its target audience (tweens and teens, in this case) isn’t old enough to buy a ticket. Recent marketing has played up that reality and used it to its comedic advantage, though, which seems to be helping turn the tide again. Still, parental outcry could be a factor to watch out for here.
- Animated sequels have shown a general downward trend this year (LEGO Movie 2 and Secret Life of Pets 2, most notably), a consideration working against Angry Birds 2. Another factor: the first film earned a lukewarm 2.81x multiplier from its $38.2 million debut in May 2016 — an uncommonly low ratio for a non-sequel animated release — as it topped out at $107.5 million stateside and (still quite profitable) $352 million globally. Initial overseas earnings for the sequel also hint at a sharp drop-off domestically.
- 47 Meters Down: Uncaged‘s primary concern this weekend is opening in the shadow of last weekend’s semi-breakout by Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, which could continue to be a solid draw among teens and young adults looking for PG-13 accessible thrills.
- As trends go, those aforementioned musically-driven crowd-pleasers are seeing diminished returns despite their relative success — with both Rocketman and Yesterday displaying regression after the blockbuster success of similar films last year. Additionally, limited market outreach (for a major studio) could also hinder Blinded By the Light and leave it front-loaded by fans of The Boss.
- A lack of critical reviews for Where’d You Go, Bernadette as of Wednesday evening is a bit of a concern at this stage, with pre-release comparisons now shifting away from the likes of August releases The Hundred-foot Journey ($11 million opening) and more toward those of Florence Foster Jenkins and Ricki and the Flash ($6.6 million openings each).
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decline approximately 3 to 8 percent from the same point last year when Crazy Rich Asians enjoyed a breakout opening in tandem with the debuts of Mile 22 and Alpha. That weekend generated $110.7 million across its top ten.
Opening Weekend Ranges
- Good Boys ($13 – 19.5 million)
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 ($18 – 27 million 6-day)
- 47 Meters Down: Uncaged ($9 – 14 million)
- Blinded By the Light ($4 – 8 million)
- Where’d You Go, Bernadette ($4 – 8 million)
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 18 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Good Boys | Universal | $15,600,000 | $15,600,000 | NEW |
| The Angry Birds Movie 2 | Sony / Columbia | $13,800,000 | $21,600,000 | NEW |
| Hobbs & Shaw | Universal | $13,700,000 | $133,000,000 | -46% |
| The Lion King (2019) | Disney | $11,900,000 | $496,600,000 | -41% |
| 47 Meters Down: Uncaged | Entertainment Studios | $11,700,000 | $11,700,000 | NEW |
| Scary Stories to Tell In the Dark | Lionsgate / CBS Films | $9,600,000 | $38,800,000 | -54% |
| Dora and the Lost City of Gold | Paramount | $9,000,000 | $34,000,000 | -48% |
| Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood | Sony / Columbia | $7,400,000 | $113,700,000 | -36% |
| Blinded By the Light | Warner Bros. | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | NEW |
| Where’d You Go, Bernadette | United Artists Releasing | $5,200,000 | $5,200,000 | NEW |
Alex Edghill contributed to this report
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
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