Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Impact and Implications of Disney and Warner Bros.’ 2021 Strategies

There has arguably never been a more tumultuous year for the world than 2020, which makes this week’s column somewhat relieving to assemble as it will be the final long range box office report until at least sometime in January.

Recently, two major studios capped their year with crucial announcements that will factor significantly into exhibition’s goals toward box office recovery in 2021. While there are no concrete answers to be found yet, and the speculative work of forecasting has only become more muddied during these past nine months of the pandemic, there is progress on the horizon.

2020’s Final Box Office Tallies and 2021’s Early Forecasts

First, the bad news: With this year beginning its welcomed fade out, domestic box office remains on track to finish around $2.1 billion, or potentially nearer $2.2 billion if/when the grosses of re-released films not officially reported yet by studios are made available retroactively through end-of-year accounting (a standard practice after the holidays every year).

Regardless, it’s a figure that will be down more than 81 percent from 2019’s second-best-ever $11.35 billion domestic haul, and the lowest haul (without accounting for inflation) in nearly 40 years. Globally, this year’s sum looks to finish near $11.5 billion — down from a record $42.5 billion one year ago. (Notably, the high overseas share carried by countries who have handled the virus more successfully is considered indicative of the potential moviegoing demand that may await the domestic market eventually.)

The domestic market’s first quarter of 2021 isn’t likely to improve much, either, with our current models suggesting it could remain flat with Q4 2020 and generate approximately $200 million across the first three months of the new year.

The pandemic-induced asterisks next to all of these statistics should be fairly obvious. While cinemas’ efforts to reopen with new health practices this fall have helped put food on the table for some families and kept the moviegoing spirit alive, the majority of moviegoers have made it clear they aren’t ready to return to theaters — or other mass communal events — until vaccines are widely distributed. A steady stream of new, widely appealing content will certainly be important as well, something that didn’t come to fruition after Christopher Nolan’s Tenet blazed an early path.

After a great deal of speculating throughout most of this year, though, those two awaited elements are finally peeking over the horizon as 2021 knocks on the door.

The Dichotomy of Disney and Warner Bros.’ 2021 Strategies

Questions still linger, though, as evidenced by Warner Bros.’ surprise announcement that they will premiere their entire 2021 slate of movies day-and-date in theaters and streaming via their parent company’s HBO Max platform.

Based on modeling of the estimated 17 films covering in that plan, including top-earning candidates like Godzilla vs. Kong (May 21), The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It (June 4), In the Heights (June 18), The Suicide Squad (August 6), Dune (October 1), and The Matrix 4 (December 22), it’s a move that could potentially result in the loss of hundreds of millions of box office earnings, not to mention the fallout of relationships with exhibitors and creative talent.

In short: unless AT&T allows Warner Bros. to backtrack this strategy (should the health situation allow, of course), their films are open to internal financial risk and may play a heavily diminished role in theatrical exhibition’s recovery goals in 2021. (Scenario: A year from now, it could be Universal’s Sing 2 garnering the “#1 opening” headlines over Christmas weekend, not the decades-long-anticipated fourth Matrix film.)

There are numerous debates over the practicality of cutting into theatrical exclusivity for films which need that revenue stream to justify their budgets and the industry’s ecosystem. That discourse is weighed alongside the reality that 2020 has upended studio and cinema balance sheets alike, as well as the hope for a new stimulus package that can provide relief to cinemas soon. Meanwhile, distribution has begun for multiple vaccines — leading medical experts to grow more confident about achieving herd immunity by summer.

That latter expectation is the current lynchpin of cinema’s hopes for recovery to begin by mid-2021, and the reason why Warner’s shocking move is in such contrast to that of other studios.

Vaccines won’t change the landscape overnight, though. Like many regions of the United States, key international markets such as France, Germany, and Italy are in the middle of renewed cinema closures right now due to virus case surges. Even with vaccines rolling out, it will take months for their effect to be felt on a broad cultural scale. This is why major studios will remain mostly absent from the release slate in 2021’s first quarter.

In fact, after Warner Bros. launches Wonder Woman 1984 day-and-date and Universal pushes News of the World domestically on Christmas Day next week, only 12 “major studio” films are planned for wide release throughout January, February, and March.

Of those 12, three belong to Warner (thus will be cannibalized by streaming views), several (such as March 19’s Morbius) are speculative candidates to be delayed, and Disney’s own Raya and the Last Dragon will release via streaming on the same day as its March 5 theatrical release — one week before Disney also plans to release The King’s Man (March 12).

It is that next-to-last title and its distributor that are sending a signal of cautious optimism, though.

While Raya is likely to perform far lower at the box office than it would have with a traditional release strategy, it is the first brand new, high profile movie Disney will be making available to both domestic and international cinemas during the pandemic. Coincidentally, it will occur exactly one year after they released Pixar’s Onward, which was heavily impacted by theatrical and economic shutdowns days into the start of its run as the pandemic gripped the world back in March.

Essentially, Disney is testing the waters of a PVOD day-and-date release while also indicating this is the period on the calendar they believe science is indicating it may finally make sense to release their films beyond homes again. The studio previously sent Mulan to PVOD during the summer, but without making it available to theaters domestically. Pixar’s Soul is also going straight to streaming without a theatrical release this Christmas.

Rather than commit an entire year’s slate to a plan that may or may not be relevant 12 months from now, Disney is approaching what’s hoped to be the downturn of the pandemic in 2021 on a title-by-title basis. That’s particularly important because they remain open to theatrical exclusivity for Marvel Studios’ Black Widow, which remains dated for May 7.

Alongside a new Pixar movie in June, three other Marvel Cinematic Universe chapters — Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (July 9), The Eternals (November 5), and Sony’s Spider-Man 3 (December 22) through December of next year, audiences could have plenty of reason to congregate in theaters again. Disney appears committed to playing their role in making that happen.

2021’s Big Picture… for Now

Before Widow, though, the first genuine tentpole with blockbuster aspirations remains MGM’s No Time to Die. Daniel Craig’s final outing as James Bond was the first major movie delayed due to the pandemic in early 2020, and after two release date shuffles still remains parked on the April 2 (Easter) weekend alongside Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2.

At the moment, that’s the new target D-Day for exhibition. Everything before it, including Raya and any other films releasing in the first quarter of 2021, will serve as an extended warm-up period with theaters hopefully getting more major product than they did in the final months of 2020.

To be fair, the target has changed before, and it could change again. There are numerous financial considerations to make in each studio’s case. MGM, particularly, isn’t Disney. Bond is not only their biggest title on the slate, it’s arguably their *only* tentpole candidate.

For the purpose of speculation, it wouldn’t be shocking if MGM and Bond’s franchise producers decide to distance the big-budget, legacy franchise pic from winter one more time. They could aim for a summer or fall release date while — or after — other studios have theoretically provided the foundation of theatrical recovery with films like Widow, Universal’s The Boss Baby: Family Business (March 26), F9 (May 28), and Minions: The Rise of Gru (July 2); Sony’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife (June 11) and Venom: Let There Be Carnage (June 25); Pixar’s Luca (June 18); Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II (April 23) and Top Gun: Maverick (July 2), et al.

If all goes well, the second quarter of 2021 (April though June) has mathematical potential to become the first $1 billion-plus domestic box office period since Q1 2020.

Before we get to the point of more confidently discussing the prospects of that target and the prospects of individual films, though, a rough winter must be endured first. Wonder Woman 1984 may bring a small influx of much needed revenue for theaters able to remain open in late December and January, but that movie and a few counter-programmers alone will not be enough to keep all theaters afloat while COVID-19 cases continue to set new daily records entering the heart of flu season.

If everything goes well, such as vaccine distributions remaining on schedule and virus cases declining significantly after the winter surge, a late spring and summer movie season is realistically achievable. Yes, there will still be seating capacities in place. Masks will probably still be required, too — or at least strongly recommended. But consumer sentiment for going to the movies is expected to greatly improve when the general population has access to vaccines and studios commit to releasing major films on a regular basis again.

Tangential to the trends of the pandemic is the reality that multiple studios have taken steps to shorten theatrical windows while cinemas have been offline this year. There is no way to be sure exactly how that development will continue in a post-pandemic era, but an evolution should be expected — even if not as dramatic as some of the strategies we’ve seen announced in a market without theatrical competition at its fullest. How those new windows and exhibitor-studio agreements take shape will heavily inform not just 2021’s pace for box office recovery, but also the years beyond.

However the new year and all of these changes shake out, there is a wealth of major content on the docket for movie theaters. Here’s hoping the final long range report of 2021 will be looking back on the world’s successful fight against the pandemic and cinema’s return to a bustling cultural sanctuary.

Long Range Forecast & 2021’s Wide Release Calendar

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
12/25/2020	News of the World	$2,000,000 – $7,000,000	$4,000,000		$10,000,000 – $25,000,000	$18,700,000		2,000	Universal
12/25/2020	One Night in Miami…		n/a			n/a			Amazon Studios
12/25/2020	Pinocchio (2020)	$500,000 – $3,000,000	$750,000		$1,000,000 – $10,000,000	$2,750,000		2,000	Roadside Attractions
12/25/2020	Promising Young Woman	$500,000 – $3,000,000	$800,000		$2,500,000 – $15,000,000	$4,500,000		1,200	Focus Features
12/25/2020	Wonder Woman 1984	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$14,000,000		$40,000,000 – $75,000,000	$60,000,000		1,750	Warner Bros.
1/1/2021	(no releases scheduled)
1/8/2021	(no releases scheduled)
1/15/2021	The Marksman	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000	$3,500,000		$7,000,000 – $17,000,000	$12,500,000			Open Road Films
1/15/2021	Wrath of Man		n/a			n/a			United Artists Releasing
1/22/2021	Breaking News in Yuba County	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000	$3,000,000		$5,000,000 – $15,000,000	$13,000,000			MGM / United Artists Releasing
1/29/2021	The Little Things	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	$4,000,000		$12,000,000 – $30,000,000	$16,000,000			Warner Bros.
2/5/2021	Cinderella (2021)								Sony / Columbia
2/5/2021	Minimata								MGM
2/12/2021	French Exit								Sony Pictures Classics
2/12/2021	Land								Focus Features
2/19/2021	Joe Bell								Solstice Studios
2/19/2021	The Mauritanian								STXfilms
2/19/2021	Nomadland								Disney / Searchlight Pictures
2/26/2021	Nobody								Universal
2/26/2021	Tom & Jerry								Warner Bros.
2/26/2021	The United States Vs. Billie Holiday								Paramount
3/5/2021	Boogie								Focus Features
3/5/2021	Chaos Walking								Lionsgate
3/5/2021	Raya and the Last Dragon								Disney
3/5/2021	Untitled Universal Event Film (2021)								Universal
3/12/2021	The King’s Man								20th Century Studios
3/12/2021	The Many Saints of Newark								Warner Bros.
3/19/2021	Morbius								Sony / Columbia
3/19/2021	The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent								Lionsgate
3/26/2021	The Boss Baby: Family Business								Universal
4/2/2021	No Time to Die								MGM
4/2/2021	Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway								Sony / Columbia
4/9/2021	Bob’s Burgers								Disney / 20th Century Studios
4/16/2021	Bios								Universal
4/16/2021	Fatherhood								Sony / Columbia
4/16/2021	Mortal Kombat (2021)								Warner Bros.
4/16/2021	Untitled Universal Event Film II (2021)								Universal
4/23/2021	The Asset								Lionsgate
4/23/2021	Last Night in Soho								Focus Features
4/23/2021	A Quiet Place Part II								Paramount
4/23/2021	Ron’s Gone Wrong								20th Century Studios
4/30/2021	(no releases scheduled)
5/7/2021	Black Widow								Disney / Marvel Studios
5/14/2021	Marry Me								Universal
5/14/2021	Rumble								Paramount
5/21/2021	Free Guy								Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/21/2021	Godzilla vs. Kong								Warner Bros.
5/21/2021	Spiral: From the Book of Saw								Lionsgate
5/28/2021	Cruella								Disney
5/28/2021	F9								Universal
5/28/2021	Infinite								Paramount
6/4/2021	The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It								Warner Bros. / New Line
6/4/2021	Samaritan								United Artists Releasing
6/4/2021	Spirit Untamed								Universal
6/4/2021	Vivo								Sony / Columbia
6/11/2021	Ghostbusters: Afterlife								Sony / Columbia
6/18/2021	In the Heights								Warner Bros.
6/18/2021	Luca								Disney / Pixar
6/25/2021	Blue Bayou								Focus Features
6/25/2021	Venom: Let There Be Carnage								Sony / Columbia
6/30/2021	Zola								A24
7/2/2021	Minions: The Rise of Gru								Universal
7/2/2021	Top Gun: Maverick								Paramount
7/9/2021	The Forever Purge								Universal
7/9/2021	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings								Disney / Marvel Studios
7/16/2021	Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar								Lionsgate
7/16/2021	Space Jam: A New Legacy								Warner Bros.
7/16/2021	Uncharted								Sony / Columbia
7/23/2021	The Tomorrow War								Paramount
7/23/2021	Old								Universal
7/30/2021	The Green Knight								A24
7/30/2021	Jungle Cruise								Disney
8/6/2021	Hotel Transylvania 4								Sony / Columbia
8/6/2021	The Suicide Squad								Warner Bros.
8/13/2021	Deep Water								20th Century Studios
8/13/2021	Don’t Breathe Sequel								Sony / Columbia
8/13/2021	Respect								MGM / United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021	Untitled Russo Brothers Family Film								United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021	Untitled Blumhouse Project II (2021)								Universal
8/20/2021	The Hitman’s Bodyguard 2								Lionsgate
8/20/2021	Paw Patrol								Paramount
8/27/2021	The Beatles: Get Back								Disney
8/27/2021	Candyman								Universal
9/3/2021	Jackass								Paramount
9/10/2021	Untitled New Line Horror Film								Warner Bros.
9/17/2021	The Bad Guys								Universal
9/17/2021	Death on the Nile								Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/17/2021	Man from Toronto								Sony / Columbia
9/24/2021	Untitled Universal Event Film								Universal
10/1/2021	Dune								Warner Bros.
10/8/2021	The Addams Family 2								United Artists Releasing
10/15/2021	Halloween Kills								Universal
10/15/2021	The Last Duel								20th Century Studios
10/22/2021	Snake Eyes								Paramount
10/29/2021	(no releases scheduled)
11/5/2021	Clifford the Big Red Dog								Paramount
11/5/2021	Eternals								Disney / Marvel Studios
11/5/2021	Untitled Elvis Presley Project								Warner Bros.
11/12/2021	(no releases scheduled)
11/19/2021	King Richard								Warner Bros.
11/19/2021	Mission: Impossible 7								Paramount
11/24/2021	Encanto								Disney
12/3/2021	Untitled								20th Century Studios
12/10/2021	American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story								Lionsgate
12/10/2021	Cyrano								United Artists Releasing
12/10/2021	West Side Story (2020)								20th Century Studios
12/17/2021	Marvel Studios – Sony Untitled Spider-Man: Far From Home Sequel								Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/17/2021	Untitled Disney Live Action								Disney
12/22/2021	Untitled Matrix Sequel								Warner Bros.
12/22/2021	Sing 2								Universal
12/22/2021	The Nightingale								Sony / Columbia

As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving. Market projections are subject to breaking announcements at any moment.

This column will continue to track the impact of release date changes in the weeks ahead.

For press inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins

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