Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ Eternals

Marvel Studios’ third of four 2021 releases is just three weeks away, and it promises to kick off the holiday movie season in a big way. How might Eternals fare in its domestic box office run?

PROS:

• As with every other Marvel film in this day and age, even unestablished sub-franchises can explode at the box office as Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings recently proved in September.

• Marketing is firing on all cylinders already with a consistent trailer presence in front of virtually every tentpole released in theaters throughout the pandemic recovery this year, particularly in IMAX and other PLF venues. Digital and television ad rotations have picked up heavily in recent weeks as well.

• Social media trends and early tracking are comparable to those of Doctor Strange ahead of its November 2016 release, while not far behind Thor: Ragnarok (November 2017). Key metrics point to high interest among a variety of demographics, partly attributable to a diverse ensemble cast led by well-known names and faces such as Angelina Jolie, Richard Madden, Salma Hayek, Kit Harrington, Kumail Nanjiani, and Brian Tyree Henry, among others.

• The 17 to 34 age bracket is strongest (par for the course with most Marvel films), although the cast is aiding appeal to those 35 and older as well. Thanks to the relative success of No Time to Die, more of those cautious-to-return adult moviegoers could show up for Eternals whereas they might not have up to this point.

• Pre-sales have only just begun this week, so their indicators may evolve over time. Nevertheless, the film is generating stronger upfront ticket commitments than Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Shang-Chi, and Black Widow did in their immediate start-of-sales corridors.

• Introducing a wide array of new characters, and promising massive impacts on the story of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, fan interest in how this film pivots toward the future of the overall franchise is a notable buzz driver at the moment.

• Fresh off her Oscar wins for Nomadland, Chloé Zhao’s directorial and co-written vision for this film have been heralded by President of Marvel Studios Kevin Feige and anticipated by many in the film community.

• Confirmed by Disney earlier this fall, Eternals will be exclusive to movie theaters for at least 45 days — meaning no cannibalization of box office receipts with a simultaneous streaming release — and a strong corridor throughout the holiday season. The film will also have a lock on IMAX and PLF screens for two weeks before Ghostbusters: Afterlife opens November 19.

CONS:

• Regardless of the built-in brand selling point mentioned above, this is still effectively an “original” film in the minds of casual audiences not familiar with Marvel lore or committed to seeing every Marvel film. For that reason, the likes of Shang-Chi, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Doctor Strange likely make for stronger comparison points than the aforementioned Thor three-quel.

• Marvel films typically appeal strongly to kids and parents, drawing roughly one-fifth of opening weekend audience from the under-18 bracket. With vaccines for those under the age of 12 still not available, cautious parents with young kids are likely to wait for this film. Similarly, cautious adults over the 30-35 age bracket still represent a fluid element in forecast modeling.

• The tone of this film will be important to evolving forecasts in the weeks ahead. At over two-and-a-half hours long, it’s one of the longest MCU films thus far. Depending on the film’s epic scale and pacing, that could come into play with word of mouth and/or reviews.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 10/15/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/22/2021	Dune	$42,000,000 – $52,000,000	+4%	$95,000,000 – $145,000,000	-4%	4,000	Warner Bros. Pictures
10/22/2021	The French Dispatch					50	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/22/2021	Ron’s Gone Wrong	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	-14%	$25,000,000 – $50,000,000	-16%	3,500	Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/29/2021	Antlers	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	-21%	$7,000,000 – $17,000,000	-21%	2,400	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/29/2021	Last Night in Soho	$6,500,000 – $11,500,000	-5%	$15,000,000 – $30,000,000	-6%	3,300	Focus Features
10/29/2021	My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission	TBD		TBD		1,500	Funimation / Toho Co. Ltd.
11/5/2021	Eternals	$82,000,000 – $102,000,000		$210,000,000 – $280,000,000			Disney / Marvel Studios
11/5/2021	Spencer						NEON / Topic Studios
11/10/2021	Clifford the Big Red Dog						Paramount Pictures
11/12/2021	Belfast						Focus Features
11/19/2021	C’mon C’mon						A24
11/19/2021	King Richard						Warner Bros. Pictures
11/19/2021	Ghostbusters: Afterlife						Sony Pictures / Columbia
11/24/2021	Encanto						Walt Disney Pictures
11/24/2021	House of Gucci						MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/24/2021	National Champions						STXfilms
11/24/2021	Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City						Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures
12/3/2021	Red Rocket						A24
12/3/2021	Wolf						Focus Features
12/10/2021	Cyrano						United Artists Releasing
12/10/2021	Don’t Look Up						Netflix
12/10/2021	Violence of Action						STXfilms
12/10/2021	West Side Story (2020)						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/17/2021	Nightmare Alley						Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/17/2021	Spider-Man: No Way Home						Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/22/2021	A Journal for Jordan (Wide Expansion)						Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures
12/22/2021	The King’s Man						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/22/2021	The Matrix Resurrections						Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2021	Sing 2						Universal Pictures
12/25/2021	American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story						Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
12/31/2021	(no releases scheduled)

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving as the pandemic dictates. Projections are subject to change amid breaking announcements.

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