Long Range Tracking: ‘Life of the Party’ & ‘Breaking In’ First Forecasts; ‘A Quiet Place’ & ‘Ready Player One’ Updates
This week’s report sees the addition of Life of the Party and Breaking In, both currently set for release on Friday, May 11 ahead of Mother’s Day.
The weekend has proven to be a solid launching pad for female-targeted films over the years, although with varying degrees of box office and critical success. Current tracking shows that the Melissa McCarthy vehicle — Life of the Party — is trending very well in advance marketing with social media activity significantly outpacing that of The Boss and last year’s Mother’s Day opener, Snatched.
Breaking In is on the more conservative end of expectations at the moment, however, with modest Facebook activity among the target adult audience. There’s plenty of time for that to change with such a packed slate of releases over the next two months, but current models suggest it could perform anywhere between the range of last year’s Unforgettable or 2015’s The Boy Next Door. Its ceiling could be higher, though.
Ultimately, both films — especially Life of the Party — may share some late run audience with April’s I Feel Pretty, which remains a sleeper hit candidate thanks to early reactions among target female audiences. That film will be in its fourth weekend of release by Mother’s Day weekend, so the openers could reasonably coexist with the Amy Schumer flick.
This Week’s Key Updates
- Ready Player One bowed to very positive reactions at the SXSW screening last weekend, indicating the target fan base will pleased with the film upon release. Still, early critics’ reviews are healthy-but-not-fantastic, and we continue to see modest trends for the film as release approaches, suggesting that a breakout beyond the core novel/Spielberg/80s nostalgia crowd will be tough. While we still won’t rule out a run similar to that of 2010’s Tron: Legacy, it is J.J. Abrams’ Super 8 that is beginning to look like a stronger comparison film in terms of box office prospects.
- Conversely, A Quiet Place continues to make a case for sleeper hit status when it opens in three weeks. While social media footprints based on our internal analysis haven’t quite reached the level of Get Out or Split yet, comparisons remain very favorable to the likes of 10 Cloverfield Lane and Don’t Breathe. The film’s ceiling continues to rise, so it’s definitely a film we wouldn’t be surprised to break out if reviews and word of mouth are strong.
- First forecasts for Chappaquiddick are now available in the chart below.
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 3/23/2018 | Midnight Sun | $3,750,000 | -17% | $9,400,000 | -17% | 2,000 | Open Road |
| 3/23/2018 | Pacific Rim Uprising | $25,000,000 | $61,000,000 | 3,700 | Universal | ||
| 3/23/2018 | Paul, Apostle of Christ | $12,500,000 | -4% | $43,900,000 | -4% | 1,400 | Sony / Columbia |
| 3/23/2018 | Sherlock Gnomes | $16,000,000 | $58,000,000 | 3,500 | Paramount | ||
| 3/23/2018 | Unsane | $3,750,000 | -6% | $7,500,000 | -6% | 2,000 | Bleecker Street |
| 3/29/2018 | Ready Player One | $37,000,000 | -29% | $120,000,000 | -31% | 3,750 | Warner Bros. |
| 3/30/2018 | Acrimony | $14,500,000 | -15% | $35,000,000 | -15% | 2,000 | Lionsgate |
| 3/30/2018 | God’s Not Dead: A Light In Darkness | $6,000,000 | $15,400,000 | 2,400 | Pure Flix | ||
| 4/6/2018 | Blockers | $18,000,000 | -5% | $59,700,000 | -5% | Universal | |
| 4/6/2018 | Chappaquiddick | $3,500,000 | NEW | $7,000,000 | NEW | Entertainment Studios | |
| 4/6/2018 | The Miracle Season | n/a | n/a | Mirror / LD Entertainment / Pure Flix | |||
| 4/6/2018 | A Quiet Place | $26,000,000 | 4% | $80,000,000 | 3% | Paramount | |
| 4/13/2018 | Rampage | $20,000,000 | $49,500,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 4/13/2018 | Truth or Dare | $19,000,000 | $39,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 4/20/2018 | I Feel Pretty | $21,000,000 | $70,000,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 4/20/2018 | Super Troopers 2 | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | Fox Searchlight | |||
| 4/20/2018 | Traffik | $3,500,000 | $8,750,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 4/27/2018 | Avengers: Infinity War | $215,000,000 | $538,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 5/4/2018 | Bad Samaritan | n/a | n/a | Electric Entertainment | |||
| 5/4/2018 | Overboard | $14,000,000 | $39,000,000 | Lionsgate / Pantelion | |||
| 5/4/2018 | Tully | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 5/11/2018 | Breaking In | $14,000,000 | NEW | $37,500,000 | NEW | Universal | |
| 5/11/2018 | Life of the Party | $21,000,000 | NEW | $54,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. / New Line |
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