Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Black Panther’ Hits No. 1 for 5th Weekend in a Row with $27M; ‘Tomb Raider’ Nabs Okay $23.5M in 2nd

Black Panther continued to roar in its fifth weekend of release, coming in at No. 1 once again with an estimated $27 million and thwarting Tomb Raider‘s play for the top of the chart. Dropping just 33 percent from last weekend, the superhero blockbuster now has an incredible $605.4 million domestically, and will soon overtake Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($619.6 million) and Marvel’s The Avengers ($623.3 million) for fifth place all-time in North America. Its performance this weekend also makes it the first film since Avatar to enjoy five weekends in a row at No. 1 and only the third film to do so since Titanic, demonstrating just what a phenomenon this movie is.
Debuting in second was MGM-Warner Bros.’ Tomb Raider reboot starring Alicia Vikander, which took in an estimated $23.5 million in its opening weekend – an amount more or less in line with pre-release expectations. That’s a far cry from the $47.3 million opening enjoyed by the Angelina Jolie original, which ultimately grossed over $130 million in North America and $274 million worldwide. Actually, the debut of this new version is about equal to that of the less-successful sequel Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life, which opened to $21.7 million in 2003 and topped out at $65 million Stateside (albeit when ticket prices were considerably lower). The new film, of course, lacked the element of Jolie’s then-white-hot star power, which had reached a peak at the time of Lara Croft‘s release.
With a reported price tag of $94 million, this is not an ideal start for the video game adaptation, which topped Black Panther on Friday but couldn’t keep up the momentum through the weekend. The film garnered only so-so reviews (though they were better than Jolie’s version) and a “B” Cinemascore from audiences. This looks more likely to perform like Cradle of Life or even last year’s Ghost in the Shell, which opened to $18.6 million and topped out at barely over $40 million domestically. Tomb Raider skewed male, with men making up 56% of the audience. Additionally, 68% of the crowd was over the age of 25.
Wowing in third place was Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions’ Christian-themed drama I Can Only Imagine, which is estimated at a surprisingly-robust $17 million in its opening weekend. Based on the true story behind the hit Christian rock song of the same name, the film was catnip for underserved faith-based audiences, who in recent years have made movies like 2014’s Heaven is for Real ($91.4 million domestic), 2016’s Miracles from Heaven ($61.7 million) and last year’s The Shack ($57.3 million) into surprise hits. Imagine now ranks as Roadside Attractions’ highest opening weekend of all time.
The result is especially impressive when you consider that the gross came from just 1,629 screens, giving the film a per-theater average of $10,475. Notably, the audience was 67% female and 80% over the age of 35. With no other faith-based competitors in the marketplace, look for this one to post strong holds in the coming weeks.
The weekend’s other wide opener, 20th Century Fox’s Love, Simon, also did well in its debut frame, taking in an estimated $11.5 million in fifth place. Based on the YA novel Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda by Becky Albertalli, the film made history this weekend as the first gay teen romance released by a major studio. It was certainly helped along by strong reviews, positive word-of-mouth (it received a rare “A+” Cinemascore from audiences, 58% of which was female), and a clever marketing campaign that sold it as a mainstream teen flick that just so happened to have a gay lead character. With a reported budget of $17 million, positive word-of-mouth and the film’s unique position in the marketplace should keep it in the conversation for awhile.
Last weekend’s big opener A Wrinkle in Time fell to fourth in its second weekend, bringing in an estimated $16.6 million for a domestic total of $61.1 million after ten days. The heavily-hyped Disney release got off to a rather disappointing $33.1 million start in its debut frame, and with a drop of nearly 50 percent this weekend it unfortunately didn’t hold well enough to change the narrative around it.
Sixth went to the sturdy R-rated comedy Game Night, which continued a series of impressive holds by easing just 29 percent from last weekend’s total with an estimated $5.5 million. The Rachel McAdams-Jason Bateman farce has now grossed $54.1 million after four weeks. If it continues to hold the way it has, it should top out close to $70 million domestically by the end of its run.
In seventh, the family hit Peter Rabbit passed the $100 million mark with an estimated $5.2 million in weekend six, easing just 23 percent from last weekend for a total of $102.4 million. The Sony release held up well even with a high-profile competitor like A Wrinkle in Time in the marketplace, and with a reported $50 million budget it’s shaping up to be a tidy hit for the studio.
Slasher follow-up The Strangers: Prey at Night dropped to eighth place in its sophomore frame with an estimated $4.8 million, giving it a total of $18.6 million so far. This one is performing like a typical horror sequel and fading quickly. Ninth went to Red Sparrow which brought in an estimated $4.4 million in its third weekend for a $39.5 million total, while MGM’s Death Wish rounded out the Top 10 with an estimated $3.3 million and a total of $29.9 million, also after three weekends.
Notably, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle fell out of the Top 10 this weekend for the first time since its early December release. Bringing in an estimated $1.65 million, it’s now grossed over $400 million domestically and will soon pass Spider-Man as the highest-grossing Sony release of all time in North America (not adjusted for inflation).
Also falling outside the Top 10 in just their second weekends were The Hurricane Heist and Gringo, which grossed an estimated $1.03 million and $630,000, respectively, in their sophomore frames. Totals for each now stand at $5.3 million and $4.5 million, with little left in the tank theatrically.
Limited Release:
Following an impressive debut last weekend on just four screens, IFC’s The Death of Stalin expanded to 32 locations and took in an estimated $580,576 for a terrific per-theater average of $18,143 and a total of $843,967. The Armando Iannucci-directed satire has received excellent reviews and is set to expand further in the coming weeks.
Opening on three screens, the provocative comedy Flower starring Zoey Deutch made a promising $57,851, giving it a healthy per-screen average of $19,284. The Orchard release, which debuted at last year’s Tribeca Film Festival, has received mixed-to-positive reviews. The film centers on a teenage girl (Deutch) who makes it her mission to stalk a man whom her step-brother claims sexually assaulted him.
Overseas Update:
Black Panther added another $30 million internationally this weekend for a whopping $577.1 million overseas cume and a massive $1.182 billion worldwide. It’s now the fourteenth highest-grossing film globally of all time, surpassing both Captain America: Civil War ($1.153 billion) and Minions ($1.159 billion) this weekend. In the increasingly-important Chinese marketplace, it’s total stands at an estimated $96 million.
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