Boxoffice’s Long Range Tracking report takes a first official look at the 2018 holiday season this week with early projections for several key releases scheduled for November 2.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 40 million
Buzz around Rami Malek’s (Mr. Robot) anticipated performance as Queen front-man Freddie Mercury is driving strong interest and online conversation thus far, indicating potential for the film to follow in the footsteps of Walk the Line and Ray as an award-contending music bio released in November. The film’s director change midway through production may cause some initial concern, and while we expect some front-loading by Queen’s multiple generations of fans, early reactions from industry screenings of the film’s first half-hour have been very encouraging.
Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
Rising star Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) could be a notable driving factor for this comedy, not to mention writer/director’s Tyler Perry’s own consistent audience. We’re somewhat conservative for now given the recent availability of the film’s first trailer, but early trends suggest it could be a fair counter-programmer.
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 30 million
Forecasting models for Disney’s next live action adaptation are volatile for now, due in part to what will be a stronger slate of kid- and family-driven releases later in November and December. Nutcracker‘s early trailers have generated a fair amount of positive sentiment online, staying power could be solid with the holiday season ahead, and the film’s notable ensemble cast may help appeal to parents. Still, we’re cautious given the mixed performances of Disney’s non-tentpole features in recent years. Initial trend and performance comps include the likes of A Wrinkle In Time, The BFG, and Alice Through the Looking Glass.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 9/14/2018 | The Predator (2018) | $31,000,000 | 3% | $68,000,000 | 3% | 3,900 | Fox |
| 9/14/2018 | A Simple Favor | $13,500,000 | $38,600,000 | 3,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 9/14/2018 | Unbroken: Path to Redemption | $3,000,000 | 50% | $7,500,000 | 53% | 1,525 | Pure Flix |
| 9/14/2018 | White Boy Rick | $8,500,000 | -15% | $27,000,000 | -16% | 2,400 | Sony / Studio 8 |
| 9/21/2018 | Assassination Nation | n/a | n/a | n/a | Neon | ||
| 9/21/2018 | Fahrenheit 11/9 | $5,000,000 | NEW | n/a | 1,000 | Briarcliff | |
| 9/21/2018 | The House with a Clock In Its Walls | $24,000,000 | $79,000,000 | 3,500 | Universal | ||
| 9/21/2018 | Life Itself | n/a | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios | ||
| 9/28/2018 | Hell Fest | $9,500,000 | $22,000,000 | Lionsgate / CBS Films | |||
| 9/28/2018 | Little Women (2018) | n/a | n/a | Pinnacle Peak | |||
| 9/28/2018 | Night School (2018) | $22,000,000 | 26% | $69,000,000 | 26% | Universal | |
| 9/28/2018 | Smallfoot | $22,000,000 | -4% | $76,500,000 | -4% | Warner Bros. | |
| 10/5/2018 | A Star Is Born | $44,000,000 | $150,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 10/5/2018 | Venom (2018) | $65,000,000 | $135,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 10/12/2018 | Bad Times at the El Royale | $13,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 10/12/2018 | First Man | $22,000,000 | 10% | $105,000,000 | 17% | Universal | |
| 10/12/2018 | Goosebumps: Haunted Halloween | $14,000,000 | $45,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 10/19/2018 | Halloween (2018) | $60,000,000 | $142,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 10/19/2018 | The Hate U Give | n/a | n/a | Fox | |||
| 10/19/2018 | Serenity (2018) | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Hunter Killer | $14,000,000 | $41,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Indivisible | n/a | n/a | Pure Flix | |||
| 10/26/2018 | Johnny English Strikes Again | $4,000,000 | $8,750,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Bohemian Rhapsody | $35,000,000 | NEW | $125,000,000 | NEW | Fox | |
| 11/2/2018 | Tyler Perry’s Nobody’s Fool | $15,000,000 | NEW | $40,000,000 | NEW | Paramount | |
| 11/2/2018 | The Nutcracker and the Four Realms | $20,000,000 | NEW | $79,000,000 | NEW | Disney | |
| 11/2/2018 | The List | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 11/2/2018 | Suspiria (Wide) | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studios |
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The post Long Range Tracking: ‘Bohemian Rhapsody,’ ‘Nobody’s Fool,’ & ‘The Nutcracker and the Four Realms’ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.
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