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Sunday, October 7, 2018

Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Venom’ Sets October Opening Record with $80M; ‘A Star is Born’ Rockets to $42.6M

Venom and A Star Is Born both burned bright at the box office this weekend, sending the charts to an all-time October weekend record with spectacular debuts of $80 million and $42.6 million, respectively. Additionally, the former title easily surpassed Gravity‘s $55.7 million debut to set a new record for a film opening in October.

Starring Tom Hardy as an investigative journalist taken over by a vicious alien symbiote, Venom far exceeded expectations, as some had even questioned its ability to overtake Gravity for the October record going into the weekend. But all doubts were quelled when the Sony release blasted its way to a terrific $32.75 million opening on Friday, just shy of the opening day grosses of both Ant-Man and the Wasp ($33.72 million) and Logan ($33 million).

While critics were generally unkind to Venom (it has a 32% at Rotten Tomatoes), the Marvel character’s core fanbase clearly could not be dissuaded. And according to audience surveys, moviegoers were generally happy with the film, as it netted a “B+” Cinemascore and an 89 percent Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, it’s entirely possible Venom will prove to be a frontloaded affair, much like the similarly dark-hued comic book movie Suicide Squad. That film was also lambasted by critics (it had a 28% rating on Rotten Tomatoes) and boasted an identical “B+” Cinemascore, and it fell hard in its sophomore frame, dropping a sizable 67.4% (though it held considerably better in subsequent weekends). It finished its North American run with $325.1 million after debuting to a massive $133.6 million, giving it a weekend-t0-final multiplier of 2.4x. If Venom performs similarly, it could be looking at a final gross somewhere in the range of $190-$200 million.

Coming in a very impressive second was Warner Bros.’ A Star Is Born, which brought in $42.6 million (including $1.35 million from special fan previews on Tuesday and Wednesday) on 3,686 screens. The Lady Gaga-Bradley Cooper romance, which has been riding a wave of buzz since premiering at the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals, served up a strong counter-programming choice for audiences not predisposed to gobbling up the latest superhero release. Its Rotten Tomatoes score of 90% and a strong marketing push by the studio (the film’s trailer recall has been strong over the last several weeks, consistently beating out Venom) have been key in getting audiences excited for the film, which also benefitted from Lady Gaga’s massive pre-existing fanbase. The audience for the film skewed largely female (66% to 34% male), while 68% of the audience was over the age of 35.

A Star Is Born has all the makings of a leggy late-year hit in the vein of recent releases like La La Land and The Greatest Showman, which finished their runs with $151.1 million and $174.3 million, respectively. While those titles aren’t a perfect comparison – neither grossed more than $20 million on a single weekend, for instance – one could reasonably expect A Star Is Born to finish in the same ballpark and perhaps even higher, assuming it holds up well in the weeks ahead. And given its “A” Cinemascore and the studio’s sure-to-be no-holds-barred awards season push, we have no reason to believe that it won’t.

As for last weekend’s top two titles, Smallfoot beat out Night School for third place with an estimated $14.9 million, giving the Warner Bros. release a good $42.7 million after ten days. That represents a 35 percent drop and puts it about 10 percent of Storks and 18 percent ahead of the LEGO Ninjago Movie at the same point. Next week brings some competition in the form of Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, though no major animated titles are set to hit theaters until Dr. Suess’ The Grinch on November 9, so it still has a pretty good window in the coming weeks.

In fourth place was last weekend’s No. 1 Night School, which dipped 55 percent to an estimated $12.2 million in its sophomore frame. With $46.7 million after ten days of release, the Tiffany Haddish-Kevin Hart comedy is pacing just behind Hart’s 2014 sequel Think Like a Man Too, which brought in just over $48 million by the end of its second weekend. While Night School‘s gross so far falls on the lower end of the spectrum for a typical Hart comedy, it’s nonetheless a solid total and another ace in the hole for Hart, Haddish, Girls Trip director Malcolm D. Lee and the film’s hit-minting producer Will Packer.

Another former champ, Universal’s The House With a Clock in Its Walls, took fifth place with an estimated $7.3 million in its third weekend. That gives the Jack Black fantasy a total of $55.1 million after 17 days, putting it roughly 3 percent behind the pace of Black’s family-driven Goosebumps from 2015.

In sixth place was director Paul Feig’s A Simple Favor, which brought in an estimated $3.4 million in its fourth weekend. The Lionsgate sleeper now has $49 million in the bank.

Down in seventh, The Nun brought in an estimated $2.6 million for a total of $113.3 million so far, while Hell Fest brought in an estimated $2.07 million in eighth place. The total for the Lionsgate horror release now stands at an okay $8.8 million after ten days.

Rounding out the Top 10 were holdovers Crazy Rich Asians and The Predator, which brought in an estimated $2.06 million and $900K, respectively. The former title now has $169.1 million after eight weeks, while The Predator closed out its final weekend in the Top 10 with a disappointing $49.9 million cume.

Limited Release:

Fox Searchlight opened The Hate U Give on 36 screens and took in an estimated $500K, giving the critically-acclaimed drama a per-screen average of $13,889. The film, which stars Amandla Stenberg as a teenage girl grappling with the death of her best friend at the hands of a police officer, will open wider as we move into the fall.

Robert Redford crime comedy The Old Man & The Gun expanded to 49 screens and brought in an estimated $385K, giving the Fox Searchlight title a total of $575K after two weeks of limited release.

Bleecker Street’s Colette took in an estimated $458K in its expansion to 107 screens, enough for a per-screen average of $4,288 and a total of $1.23 million after three weeks.

Overseas Update:

Venom came out of the gate with an impressive $125.2 million in 58 markets, bringing its global debut total to a sizzling $205.2 million. Key markets included South Korea ($15.7 million), Russia ($11.7 million), the U.K. ($9.3 million), and Mexico ($7.1 million). That’s all without China, where the film is slated to open at an as-yet-undetermined future date.

The post Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Venom’ Sets October Opening Record with $80M; ‘A Star is Born’ Rockets to $42.6M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.



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