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Sunday, October 14, 2018

Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Venom’ Tops ‘A Star Is Born’ for No. 1; ‘First Man’ and ‘Goosebumps 2’ Neck and Neck w/ $16.5M and $16.2M

In a tight race for the top spot at the box office this weekend, Venom took the crown once more with an estimated $35.7 million in its sophomore frame, narrowly beating out A Star is Born, which fell just shy of unseating the Sony superhero flick with an estimated $28 million. Meanwhile, three high-profile newcomers – First Man, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, and Bad Times at the El Royale – debuted to mixed results further down the chart in a weekend that suggests this October could be one for the record books.

Falling roughly 55 percent from its $80.2 million opening frame, Venom held far better than predicted, particularly given competition from a raft of newcomers including the similarly adult male-driven First Man and Bad Times at the El Royale. After ten days of release the Sony title now has a terrific $142.8 million in the bank, which goes to show how little fans paid attention to the film’s dismal 30% Rotten Tomatoes score. Looking at comps, the second-weekend drop is significantly better than that of the similarly-reviewed Suicide Squad, which tumbled 67.4% in its sophomore frame but rebounded a bit in subsequent weekends, ultimately ending its run with $325.1 million off a $133.6 million debut (for a weekend-to-final multiplier of 2.4x). If Venom can hold up hold up similarly well in subsequent weekends, it seems almost certain to cross the $200 million mark domestically by the end of its run. Notably, the film helped Sony hit the billion-dollar mark domestically this weekend, over two months ahead of last year.

Down in second is A Star Is Born, whose $28 million gross this weekend represents a fantastic drop of just 35 percent from its $42.9 million debut. That gives the Warner Bros. release a total of $94.1 million after ten days. With midweek business incredibly strong (on Thursday, the film actually bested Venom for the No. 1 spot), some had predicted a first place finish for the musical drama this weekend, and it would have gotten there had Venom been just a tad less resilient. Nonetheless, this is an incredibly good second weekend for the critically-acclaimed Lady Gaga-Bradley Cooper romance that portends a long and lucrative run well into the crowded fall season.

Third place went to the Damien Chazelle-directed Neil Armstrong biopic First Man, which brought in $16.5 million in its opening frame, including $3.7 million from 405 IMAX screens. Universal’s hoped-for awards season contender has been heavily promoted, and it scored an excellent 88% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes while its “B+” Cinemascore suggests audiences like it well enough, too. Looking at similar titles, the film fell short of Argo‘s $19.4 million debut but opened higher than Bridge of Spies, which managed $15.3 million in its opening frame back in 2015 (albeit in about 800 fewer theaters). The opening gross is actually on the lower end of expectations for the Ryan Gosling drama, meaning it will live and die on its performance in subsequent weekends. Word-of-mouth will be crucial for the film, and with its A-list pedigree and solid critical notices it certainly has the potential to perform well in the weeks ahead, particularly given its place in the awards-season conversation.

Debuting in fourth was Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, which grossed an estimated $16.2 million in its opening frame – a good bit off from the first film’s $23.6 million debut, but nonetheless a decent start for the $35 million production. Working against the film was a less-positive reception by critics than its predecessor (its Rotten Tomatoes score is just 43% vs. the first movie’s 77%) and what appears to be a muted reaction from fans; the film finished with a Cinemascore of “B” (soft for a family release) vs. the first movie’s “A.” It also may have taken a hit from the continued popularity of Smallfoot, not to mention similarities to The House With a Clock In Its Walls, which also stars Jack Black in a dark horror-fantasy aimed at families. Notably, Black has a much-reduced onscreen role in the sequel, which may also have disappointed fans who enjoyed him as R.L. Stine in the first installment. Still, this is a fairly healthy overall debut that fell just about in line with expectations going into the weekend.

(It’s worth noting that with only $300K separating them according to estimates, First Man could conceivably swap places with Goosebumps 2 once final tallies are reported.)

Finishing in fifth place was Smallfoot, which brought in an estimated $9.3 million in its third frame, representing a drop of just 32 percent from last weekend. With a total of $57.6 million to date, the Warner Bros. animated release is roughly 14 percent ahead of Storks at the same point and should easily surpass that film’s $72.6 million final tally by the end of its run.

In sixth place, the Tiffany Haddish-Kevin Hart comedy Night School held up well, dipping just 35 percent to an estimated $8 million in its third weekend in theaters. The film is likely getting something of a boost from a lack of comedies in the marketplace, as it’s the only adult-oriented comedy currently occupying space in the Top 10. The Universal release’s tally now stands at a solid $59.8 million after 17 days.

Debuting in seventh was Bad Times at the El Royale, the twisty period thriller with a star-studded cast that includes Jeff Bridges, Dakota Johnson, and Chris Hemsworth. The Fox release managed an estimated $7.2 million this weekend, a so-so result for the reported $32 million production. Looking at comparison titles, that’s better than the $3.2 million opening weekend performance of the similarly-marketed Hotel Artemis but a far cry from Baby Driver, another quirky crime thriller that debuted to $20.5 million last summer. While Bad Times was reasonably well-reviewed (71% on Rotten Tomatoes), the film fell victim to bad timing given the huge number of higher-profile fall titles currently in release, including such male-driven films as Venom and First Man. With a slew of major titles set to release over the next several weeks, long-term theatrical prospects aren’t looking great, though it’s the kind of film one could see performing well once it hits home-viewing formats.

Down in eighth place is holdover The House With a Clock in Its Walls, which took in an estimated $3.9 million in its fourth weekend for a total of $62.2 million to date. In ninth, Fox’s The Hate U Give enjoyed a successful expansion following its limited debut last weekend, grossing an estimated $1.76 million from just 248 screens. That gives the critically-acclaimed Amandla Stenberg drama a solid per-screen average of $7,117.

Rounding out the Top 10 is Lionsgate’s early-fall sleeper A Simple Favor, which brought in an estimated $1.38 million in its fifth weekend. The Anna Kendrick-Blake Lively title now has a solid total of $52 million to date.

Limited Release:

Amazon Studios’ Beautiful Boy enjoyed a fantastic debut his weekend, bringing in an estimated $221K from just four theaters. That gave the Steve Carell-Timothee Chalamet drama a sizzling per-screen average of $55K, which ranks as the fifth-highest of the year so far.

Expanding wider this weekend was Fox Searchlight’s The Old Man & The Gun, which took in an estimated $912K from 228 locations, enough for a per-screen average of $4,000. The Robert Redford title now stands at $1.69 million after three weeks of limited release.

Overseas Update:

Venom enjoyed another solid frame at the international box office, bringing in an estimated $69.7 million from 65 markets. In addition to solid holdovers in a number of territories, the film launched to an estimated $6.7 million in France, $3 million in Vietnam, and $2.2 million in Thailand. Its international total now stands at $235.3 million while its global cume is a stellar $378.1 million after just 12 days of release.

A Star Is Born opened in a number of major territories this weekend and brought in an estimated $20.2 million from 65 markets, including $3.8 million in the UK (2nd weekend), $2 million in Italy, $1.8 million in France (2nd weekend), and $1.4 million in Brazil. Its international tally now stands at $41.2 million.

The post Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Venom’ Tops ‘A Star Is Born’ for No. 1; ‘First Man’ and ‘Goosebumps 2’ Neck and Neck w/ $16.5M and $16.2M appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.



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