Long Range Tracking: Toy Story 4 & Child’s Play

This week’s report takes a first look at the anticipated Pixar sequel, as well as another remake of a classic ’80s/’90s horror franchise.

Toy Story 4
Opening Weekend Range: $105 – 125 million

PROS:

• The Toy Story franchise remains beloved by families and Pixar fans after 24 years in action, and the nine-year gap between sequels could serve to aid anticipation — as well as introduce the series to a new generation of kids.
• Reactions to early teaser trailers for this sequel have been largely very positive, with new characters like Forky and the stuffed animals voiced by Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key standing out so far.
• This will represent the last tentpole, computer-animated comedy of the summer, which should bode well if reviews and word of mouth are strong as they have been for each of the first three films.

CONS:

• Following up Toy Story 3 could be a bigger challenge than ever for the franchise after that film earned Oscar recognition and was heralded by many as the perfect conclusion to the series. This won’t deter younger fans, but, the demand among adults who grew up with the original films doesn’t appear to be as measurably strong as it was for Incredibles 2 or Finding Dory at this stage in the pre-release window.
• Opening two weeks after The Secret Life of Pets 2 creates an interesting competitive crossover given the very similar target audiences. That film’s reception could be key toward Toy Story 4‘s ultimate potential.

Child’s Play (2019)
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

PROS:

• The original three films were low-budget success stories in the world of B-rate horror back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which might create some nostalgia for a return to the series among adult horror fans.
• Casting Aubrey Plaza and Brian Tyree Henry could be advantageous toward boosting appeal among millennials.

CONS:

• The volume of horror titles opening this summer might serve to reduce this film’s chances of a breakout, particularly with Annabelle Comes Home opening one week later and bringing with it a built-in fan base from the Conjuring universe.
• Nostalgic horror remakes have had a modest time at the box office in recent years. Although the recent Pet Sematary opened well, it had the aid of the resurgent Stephen King brand behind it. Early comps for this title include 2015’s Poltergeist and 2013’s Carrie.

8-Week Tracking

table

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

The post Long Range Tracking: <em>Toy Story 4</em> & <em>Child’s Play</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.

from Boxoffice