Our long range report continues outward into the early days of 2020, this week focusing on the weekend of January 10 — one which is currently slated to host a crowded field of newcomers and expansions.
1917 (Wide Expansion)
Opening Weekend Range: $18 – 23 million
PROS:
- Acclaimed director Sam Mendes (American Beauty) had a successful taste of blockbuster filmmaking thanks to his stints in the James Bond franchise with Skyfall and Spectre, which collectively earned more than $504 million domestically and nearly $1.8 billion globally.
- A vast ensemble of respected actors, including Benedict Cumberbatch, Colin Firth, Mark Strong, Richard Madden, and Andrew Scott, should be appealing to adult audiences — especially veterans/military families.
- The film’s positioning as an award season candidate lines up with those of past war films receiving limited releases around Christmas before expanding in January, such as Black Hawk Down and Zero Dark Thirty.
CONS:
- As a largely British-centric film, it remains to be seen how effectively marketing can hook American audiences. On a similar note, will domestic moviegoers compare the film too directly to Dunkirk and Saving Private Ryan, or will the similarities be advantageous?
Just Mercy (Wide Expansion)
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million
PROS:
- Buzz from industry screenings suggests this could be another social rights-based crowd-pleaser for audiences.
- The cast led by Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx, and Brie Larson offers appealing star power.
- Similar to Hidden Figures several years ago, the film’s limited release before New Year’s leads into a wide expansion one week before MLK weekend — the latter of which should help generate strong staying power.
CONS:
- Unlike Hidden Figures and the lighter toned marketing of that picture, this film’s heavier lean into a dramatic narrative could limit some of the breakout potential.
- Interest from African-American audiences, particularly adult women, will be challenged by the simultaneous weekend release of Like a Boss.
Like a Boss
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million
PROS:
- Tiffany Haddish is an undisputed star on the rise thanks to her turns in Girls Trip and Night School, while Rose Byrne is no stranger to comedic success after Bridesmaids and Neighbors. The addition of Salma Hayek makes them a trio with strong appeal to adult women and a diverse makeup of “girls’ night out” crowds.
CONS:
- Interest from African-American audiences will be challenged by the simultaneous weekend expansion of Just Mercy.
My Spy
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
PROS:
- Dave Bautista has gained fame as a comedic presence thanks to the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies. This film will aim to reach families, particularly father-daughter moviegoers.
CONS:
- Bautista wasn’t able to help sell Stuber, and surrounding competition is significant here as several holiday holdovers (such as Star Wars, Jumanji, and Spies In Disguise) are likely to still be playing well into January. The opening of Dolittle one week later further complicates the attempt to reach families.
Underwater
Opening Weekend Range: $5 – 10 million
PROS:
- Kristen Stewart and T.J. Miller stand out as recognizable presences with appeal to millennial audiences.
CONS:
- Opening one week after The Grudge will likely deflate interest from horror genre fans unless this is able to generate significant buzz. Initial marketing and social footprints leave much to be desired.
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 11/22/2019 | 21 Bridges | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $9,000,000 | -10% | $25,000,000 – $38,000,000 | -10% | 2,700* | STX |
| 11/22/2019 | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $18,000,000 | -5% | $85,000,000 – $115,000,000 | 3,100* | Sony / Columbia | |
| 11/22/2019 | Frozen 2 | $120,000,000 – $160,000,000 | $130,000,000 | 4% | $420,000,000 – $520,000,000 | 4,200* | Disney | |
| 11/27/2019 | Knives Out | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $105,000,000 | 3,300 | Lionsgate | ||
| 11/27/2019 | Queen & Slim | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $7,500,000 | $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 | 2,000 | Universal | ||
| 11/29/2019 | Dark Waters (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | ||||
| 12/6/2019 | PLAYMOBIL: The Movie | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | STX | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Black Christmas | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $38,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Jumanji: The Next Level | $66,000,000 – $76,000,000 | $70,000,000 | $250,000,000 – $300,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Richard Jewell | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Cats | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $200,000,000 | $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Bombshell (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 | Fox / Blue Sky | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Uncut Gems | n/a | A24 | |||||
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 1/10/2020 | 1917 (Wide) | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $21,000,000 | NEW | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | NEW | Universal / DreamWorks | |
| 1/10/2020 | The Informer | n/a | Aviron | |||||
| 1/10/2020 | Just Mercy (Wide) | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | NEW | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. | |
| 1/10/2020 | Like a Boss | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | NEW | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | NEW | Paramount | |
| 1/10/2020 | My Spy | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $7,500,000 | NEW | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | NEW | STX | |
| 1/10/2020 | Underwater | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | NEW | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | NEW | Fox |
* = official studio estimate
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
The post Long Range Forecast: <em>1917</em>, <em>Just Mercy</em>, <em>Like a Boss</em>, <em>My Spy</em>, and <em>Underwater</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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