Our look ahead into 2020 continues this week with early forecasts for the first holiday weekend of the new year.
Bad Boys for Life
Opening Weekend Range: $24 – 34 million
PROS:
- The return of stars Will Smith and Martin Lawrence should attract fans of the first two films, many of which for years have been vocal in their desire to see another chapter of the buddy-cop franchise. The second film earned a respectable $138.6 million domestically in summer 2003 — up 110 percent from the 1995 original’s $65.8 million.
- Early social media and trailer reaction trends have been very encouraging since this sequel’s first trailer released, underlining the potential appetite for a return to the series.
- Opening over MLK weekend should be a further boon to success, not unlike the strategy employed by the Ride Along films in recent years whose mix of comedy, action, and two headline stars were conducive to holiday weekend appeal.
CONS:
- Will Smith is coming off the under-performance of Gemini Man, thought it was more a victim of its budget than its actual box office turnout (which wasn’t abnormal for that type of film in this day and age).
- As a quarter-century-old franchise, it’s unlikely that millennials will turn out for this. Recent performances by Charlie’s Angels, Terminator: Dark Fate, and Men In Black International are key examples.
Dolittle
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 55 million
PROS:
- Robert Downey, Jr. will be the big draw here after spending the last decade portraying the iconic Tony Stark/Iron Man for Marvel Studios. That franchise has arguably helped build his fan base beyond just adults and cinephiles to include a far more mainstream, family-inclusive audience. He also previously drove two Sherlock Holmes films to big success.
- As the first high profile, potentially all-ages film to open in the new year, the holiday weekend debut provides notable breakout potential. Awareness of the IP and the star voice cast should be appealing to adults/parents, while young ones will gravitate toward the comedic and adventure aspects.
- Opening nearly one month after Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Jumanji: The Next Level should allow those films to have burnt off most of their demand by the time this opens, while direct competition in the weeks after is relatively slim.
CONS:
- Initial online reactions to the first teaser trailer were decidedly mixed — although that’s hardly the target audience here, and the same was said for Aladdin almost one year ago.
- The IP itself may not be as familiar to kids and millennials today, making Downey and the ensemble voice cast even more integral to box office success.
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 11/27/2019 | Knives Out | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $18,500,000 | 3% | $75,000,000 – $105,000,000 | 6% | 3,300* | Lionsgate |
| 11/27/2019 | Queen & Slim | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $7,500,000 | $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 | 1,500* | Universal | ||
| 12/6/2019 | PLAYMOBIL: The Movie | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | 2,000 | STX | ||
| 12/13/2019 | Black Christmas | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $38,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Jumanji: The Next Level | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $50,000,000 | -29% | $225,000,000 – $275,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 12/13/2019 | Richard Jewell | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Cats | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $200,000,000 | $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Bombshell (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 | Fox / Blue Sky | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Uncut Gems | n/a | A24 | |||||
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 1/10/2020 | 1917 (Wide) | $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | Universal / DreamWorks | |||
| 1/10/2020 | The Informer | n/a | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 1/10/2020 | Just Mercy (Wide) | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 1/10/2020 | Like a Boss | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 1/10/2020 | My Spy | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $7,500,000 | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | STX | |||
| 1/10/2020 | Underwater | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 1/17/2020 | Bad Boys for Life | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $25,000,000 | NEW | $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia | |
| 1/17/2020 | Dolittle | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $40,000,000 | NEW | $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 | NEW | Universal |
* = official studio estimate
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
The post Long Range Tracking: <em>Dolittle</em> and <em>Bad Boys for Life</em> Hope to Anchor a Strong MLK Weekend in January appeared first on Boxoffice.
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