Long Range Box Office Tracking: Antebellum

This week’s update takes an early look at the original horror film, Antebellum, currently slated to open Friday, April 24.

UAR’s Bad Trip is also scheduled to open in wide release that day, however, we’re holding off on projections until its marketing campaign attains a wider footprint.

Antebellum
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

PROS:

• Janelle Monáe takes on her first leading role following her well-received turns in Hidden Figures and Harriet. The multi-talented star also recently headlined as the Oscars opening musical act.
  
  
• Early marketing has emphasized the film’s producing connection to Get Out and Us, which could further attract audiences looking for another unique, cerebral horror film.

CONS:

• Social media activity has been relatively silent in recent months, though that’s not necessarily a tell-tale sign given the penchant of original horror films to not catch fire until much closer to release.
  
  
• Opening the weekend before a Marvel film in late April has typically proven to be disadvantageous for various releases as audiences of varying backgrounds often sit that weekend out in preparation for the upcoming blockbuster (May 1’s Black Widow, in this case).

Upcoming Location Count Projections

• Onward (4,000 studio estimate on March 6)
• The Way Back (2,600+ studio estimate on March 6)
• Bloodshot (2,900 on March 13)
• Emma (1,500 studio estimated expansion on March 13)
• The Hunt (2,600 on March 13)
• I Still Believe (2,000 on March 13)
• My Spy (2,500 on March 13)

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
3/6/2020	Onward	$45,000,000 – $65,000,000	$55,000,000	-8%	$170,000,000 – $250,000,000	$210,000,000	-7%	Disney / Pixar
3/6/2020	The Way Back	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$8,000,000	-11%	$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	$25,000,000	-11%	Warner Bros.
3/13/2020	Bloodshot	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$11,000,000	-8%	$25,000,000 – $38,000,000	$26,500,000	-12%	Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020	The Hunt	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$9,500,000	-10%	$20,000,000 – $33,000,000	$23,000,000	-8%	Universal
3/13/2020	I Still Believe	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	$13,000,000		$44,000,000 – $59,000,000	$43,000,000		Lionsgate
3/13/2020	My Spy	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	$7,500,000		$15,000,000 – $35,000,000	$25,000,000		STX
3/20/2020	A Quiet Place Part II	$60,000,000 – $80,000,000	$72,000,000		$140,000,000 – $190,000,000	$168,000,000		Paramount
3/27/2020	Mulan	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	$48,000,000		$115,000,000 – $170,000,000	$138,000,000		Disney
4/3/2020	The Lovebirds	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000		$35,000,000 – $50,000,000	$42,000,000		Paramount
4/3/2020	The New Mutants	$15,000,000 – $25,000,000	$17,000,000		$35,000,000 – $55,000,000	$37,000,000		20th Century Studios
4/3/2020	Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway	$14,000,000 – $19,000,000	$18,500,000		$65,000,000 – $85,000,000	$71,000,000		Sony / Columbia
4/10/2020	No Time to Die	$75,000,000 – $100,000,000	$88,000,000		$200,000,000 – $290,000,000	$269,000,000		MGM
4/17/2020	Antlers		n/a			n/a		Searchlight Pictures
4/17/2020	Blue Story		n/a			n/a		Paramount
4/17/2020	Trolls: World Tour	$17,000,000 – $27,000,000	$23,500,000		$60,000,000 – $90,000,000	$81,000,000		Universal
4/24/2020	Antebellum	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW	$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	$34,000,000	NEW	Lionsgate
4/24/2020	Bad Trip		n/a	NEW		n/a	NEW	United Artists Releasing

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