The latest test of Warner Bros.’ day-and-date theatrical and streaming strategy arrived this weekend with The Little Things, the Denzel Washington vehicle co-starring Rami Malek and Jared Leto. Debuting in 2,171 locations, the serial killer thriller finished in first place with an estimated $4.8 million in its opening frame, a solid result given the film’s simultaneous availability on the HBO Max streaming platform.
As noted by the studio, The Little Things is the biggest opening for an R-rated film since the beginning of the pandemic, with 62% of the opening weekend audience being over the age of 35 — not surprising given Washington’s appeal with older moviegoers. Top markets for the film were Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, Houston, Greater New York Metro Area and Chicago. Only about 44% of domestic theaters are currently open in North America.
The Little Things did reasonably well in exit polling, garnering an overall B- Cinemascore with audiences. Critics liked it considerably less, with the film currently sitting at 48% on Rotten Tomatoes. That may have dampened the enthusiasm of some potential moviegoers – at least in terms of shelling out money for a ticket to see the film in theaters.
Universal’s The Croods: A New Age held steady in second place with an estimated $1.84 million, up 2% from last weekend. The leggy Dreamworks Animation sequel now has $43.95 million through the end of its tenth weekend, with no signs yet of slowing down from its current pace.
Wonder Woman 1984 finished at No. 3 with an estimated $1.3 million in its sixth weekend, a drop of just 19% from last weekend’s tally. The Warner Bros. sequel has $39.2 million to date.
In fourth place, two-weekend champ The Marksman dropped 38% to an estimated $1.25 million in its third weekend of release, giving the Liam Neeson thriller a total of $7.83 million to date. The film is trailing slightly behind the gross of Neeson’s previous theatrical release, Honest Thief, which had $9.56 million through the same time frame on around 300 more screens. It’s worth noting that the latter film was released in the fall, when the pandemic was at a lower ebb.
Sony’s Monster Hunter came in at No. 5 with an estimated $740,000, putting the video game adaptation at $11.14 million through the end of its seventh weekend.
Universal’s News of the World finished at No. 6 in its sixth weekend, grossing an estimated $540,00 for a total of $10.36 million to date.
Bleecker Street opened the critically acclaimed Colin Firth-Stanley Tucci drama Supernova on 330 screens and brought in an estimated $98,670, good for a per-screen average of $299.
Gravitas Ventures expanded the Jason Segel-Casey Affleck dramedy Our Friend into 818 locations and grossed an estimated $135,000, a drop of 44% from its debut.
OVERSEAS
The Little Things grossed an estimated $2.8 million from 18 markets, most notably Russia, where it opened at No. 2 for the weekend. The next major market for the film is Australia, where it’s slated to open on Feb. 18.
The Croods: A New Age crossed $100 million internationally this weekend with an estimated $1.3 million, bringing its overseas total to $100.43 million and its global tally to $144.38 million.
Wonder Woman 1984 took in an estimated $1.1 million overseas, bringing its international cume to $112.8 million and its global total to $152 million.
As we say goodbye to the first month of a new year and eagerly await the next — if only to get one step closer toward recovery amid the pandemic — there’s good news and bad news.
The good news: Vaccine distribution plans are beginning to take shape after a disorganized head start in 2020, studios like Universal, Warner Bros., Disney, and a number of indie distributors are putting what limited content into theaters they can, and there remains cautious optimism that this — at some point — will be the year moviegoers are able to return en masse.
The bad news: Although we’re one month through what has long been predicted to be a dire winter in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic and the movie industry itself, there remains a long road and plenty of work ahead.
For perspective on the number of setbacks encountered by cinemas in recent weeks and months, January 2021’s retail reporting period (the first 29 days of the month) will close out with an estimated $155 – 160 million domestic box office haul.
That figure is obviously down from last year’s estimated $760 million January take (achieved in the first 24 days of the month), but more relevantly, represents the lowest earning month of the pandemic since re-openings began late last summer.
By comparison, August and December 2020 have topped the pandemic chart thus far with estimated $120 million and $100 million months, followed by October’s $70 million estimate and November’s $59 million estimate.
Getting Worse Before Getting Better
Unfortunately, the night is indeed darkest before the dawn… which won’t be coming in February. Current market projections indicate the domestic box office could struggle to reach $40 million in the coming month.
The sour outlook is largely due to the repetition of the same news cycle that’s brought the world and the movie business to its knees for the last ten months: release delays, major markets remaining closed, and the raging pandemic yet to come under control.
Looking at February’s calendar, only two major studio releases are on deck: Warner Bros.’ Judas and the Black Messiah (February 12) and Tom & Jerry (February 26). Both will open in theaters the same day as they premiere on HBO Max for free to subscribers, meaning box office expectations are aggressively conservative (as they are for virtually all WB films this year).
Other titles to expect in February include Breaking News in Yuba County from MGM / United Artists Releasing (going day-and-date in theaters and on PVOD), Focus Features’ Land, and STX’s The Mauritanian on February 12 in time for President’s Day weekend. Focus will then launch Nomadland on February 19.
Beyond that, attention turns to March with Disney still promising Raya and the Last Dragon as a theatrical release the same day, March 5, as its Premier Access launch on Disney+. It will be the first domestic release from Disney since the pandemic began, coming exactly one year to the weekend after opening Pixar’s Onward. Family films have been among the few bright spots during cinema’s preliminary restart in recent months, meaning Raya could provide a breath of fresh air… and revenue.
For now, March promises to reverse the box office trend thanks to that animated pic and other films like Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking (March 5), Lionsgate’s The Courier (March 19), and Warner Bros.’ Godzilla vs. Kong (March 31). The month was recently stripped of titles like 20th Century Studios’ The King’s Man (moving from March 12 to August 20) and Sony’s Morbius (from March to October and, ultimately, to January 21, 2022).
All told, based on current and very tentative modeling, the first three months of 2021 are pacing to generate an estimated $150 million at the domestic box office. That would be down from Q4 2020’s estimated $230 million and Q3 2020’s estimated $170 million.
Please note: all projections are subject to the reopening of markets like Los Angeles and New York, which in these forecasts are presumed to remain shut down or aggressively limited in operations through March.
Release Delays Impact Early Q2
From there, the picture is again fuzzy. MGM’s No Time to Die and Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2 vacated their planned Easter releases on April 2 for October 8 and June 11 bows, respectively. Paramount was quick to push A Quiet Place Part II again once those titles weren’t around to provide springtime lead-ins, moving from April 23 to September 17.
At the moment, April’s most high profile titles look to be Universal’s Nobody (moved from February 26 to April 2), Sony’s Fatherhood (April 16, starring Kevin Hart — though likely to be delayed itself), and Warner Bros.’ Mortal Kombat remake (April 16).
In other words, any hope for an early spring reboot of the theatrical ecosphere has withered away over the ugly winter. Now, all eyes on are three next steps: how the vaccine distributions and implementations improve over the next couple of months, whether studios see enough promising box office trends through April to keep a summer slate in tact, and whether or not Disney opts to keep Black Widow attached to its current May 7 release.
Marvel’s Importance to 2021’s Eventual Rebound
For now, that Marvel Studios picture remains planned for theatrical exclusivity. Whether that holds, and/or the date remains, will depend on the state of the pandemic. Based on past timelines, it’s likely we’ll know by or before early-to-mid March what Disney will decide.
While most studios continue delaying major films and reaffirming commitment to the theatrical avenue, Marvel and Disney are in a tight spot. The Marvel Cinematic Universe — which will undoubtedly be a major component in cinematic and moviegoer recovery — has four films slated to release by the end of this December. One of those, the third Spider-Man film set for December 17, belongs to Sony.
Given the storytelling domino nature of the franchise, and while Widow might traditionally be delayed yet again, there is now a rough timeline for some normality returning to everyday life. That means, in theory, we should begin to see more releases in the back half of 2021 stick to their guns — pending no dramatic turns for the worse in the fight against the pandemic.
That also means Marvel has the option to keep at least two or three of those theatrical-only releases in tact… but it could mean Widow ends up making a sacrifice as a day-and-date release in early May if the calendar is upended any further. Not only would such a move provide a transitional period to the second half of summer and early fall when vaccines are having even more of an impact on the national (and global) population, the optics of Disney keeping multiple films on the early 2021 slate might encourage other studios to do the same.
Again, this is all speculation and relies on the timelines offered by health experts and government administration to begin curbing the pandemic. Anything could change, but perhaps for the first time in many months, there is some reason to begin expecting a turn of the tide by the middle of the year.
The world, unfortunately, just has to continue enduring a very dark winter and early spring ahead.
Long Range Forecast & 2021’s Wide Release Calendar
Release Date
Title
3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range
% Chg from Last Week
Domestic Total Forecast Range
% Chg from Last Week
Distributor
2/5/2021
Dara of Jasenovac
101 Studios
2/5/2021
Minimata
MGM
2/12/2021
Breaking News in Yuba County
$1,000,000 – $4,000,000
-33%
$3,000,000 – $15,000,000
-38%
MGM / United Artists Releasing
2/12/2021
French Exit
Sony Pictures Classics
2/12/2021
Judas and the Black Messiah
$1,000,000 – $4,000,000
NEW
$3,000,000 – $15,000,000
NEW
Warner Bros. Pictures
2/12/2021
Land
Focus Features
2/12/2021
The Mauritanian (limited)
STXfilms
2/19/2021
Nomadland (Expansion)
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
2/26/2021
Tom & Jerry
Warner Bros. Pictures
3/5/2021
Boogie
Focus Features
3/5/2021
Chaos Walking
$2,000,000 – $7,000,000
$6,000,000 – $25,000,000
Lionsgate
3/5/2021
Raya and the Last Dragon
$7,000,000 – $15,000,000
-14%
$30,000,000 – $60,000,000
-14%
Walt Disney Pictures
3/5/2021
Untitled Universal Event Film (2021)
Universal Pictures
3/19/2021
The Courier
$2,000,000 – $7,000,000
NEW
$7,000,000 – $25,000,000
NEW
Lionsgate
3/19/2021
Last Call
IFC Films
3/19/2021
My Brother’s Keeper
Collide Distribution
3/26/2021
(no releases scheduled)
3/31/2021
Godzilla vs. Kong
$7,000,000 – $12,000,000
$15.000,000 – $40,000,000
Warner Bros. Pictures
4/2/2021
Nobody
Universal Pictures
4/16/2021
Fatherhood
Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/16/2021
Mortal Kombat (2021)
Warner Bros. Pictures
4/16/2021
Untitled Universal Event Film II (2021)
Universal Pictures
4/23/2021
The Asset
Lionsgate
4/30/2021
(no releases scheduled)
5/7/2021
Black Widow
Disney / Marvel Studios
5/14/2021
Marry Me
Universal Pictures
5/21/2021
Final Account
NEW
NEW
Focus Features
5/21/2021
Free Guy
Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/21/2021
Spiral: From the Book of Saw
Lionsgate
5/28/2021
Cruella
Walt Disney Pictures
5/28/2021
F9
Universal Pictures
5/28/2021
Infinite
Paramount Pictures
6/4/2021
The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It
Warner Bros. / New Line
6/4/2021
Samaritan
United Artists Releasing
6/4/2021
Spirit Untamed
Universal Pictures
6/4/2021
Vivo
Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/11/2021
Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway
Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/18/2021
In the Heights
Warner Bros. Pictures
6/18/2021
Luca
Disney / Pixar
6/25/2021
Blue Bayou
Focus Features
6/25/2021
Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/30/2021
Zola
A24
7/2/2021
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Universal Pictures
7/2/2021
Top Gun: Maverick
Paramount Pictures
7/9/2021
The Forever Purge
Universal Pictures
7/9/2021
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Disney / Marvel Studios
7/16/2021
Cinderella (2021)
Sony Pictures / Columbia
7/16/2021
The Night House
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/16/2021
Space Jam: A New Legacy
Warner Bros. Pictures
7/23/2021
The Tomorrow War
Paramount Pictures
7/23/2021
Old
Universal Pictures
7/30/2021
The Green Knight
A24
7/30/2021
Jungle Cruise
Walt Disney Pictures
8/6/2021
Hotel Transylvania 4
Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/6/2021
The Suicide Squad
Warner Bros. Pictures
8/13/2021
Bios
Universal Pictures
8/13/2021
Deep Water
Disney / 20th Century Studios
8/13/2021
Don’t Breathe Sequel
Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/13/2021
Respect
MGM / United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021
Untitled Russo Brothers Family Film
United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021
Untitled Blumhouse Project II (2021)
Universal Pictures
8/20/2021
The Hitman’s Bodyguard 2
Lionsgate
8/20/2021
The King’s Man
Disney / 20th Century Studios
8/20/2021
Paw Patrol
Paramount Pictures
8/27/2021
The Beatles: Get Back
Walt Disney Pictures
8/27/2021
Candyman
Universal Pictures
9/3/2021
Jackass
Paramount Pictures
9/10/2021
Malignant
NEW
NEW
Warner Bros. Pictures
9/17/2021
The Boss Baby: Family Business
Universal Pictures
9/17/2021
Death on the Nile
Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/17/2021
Man from Toronto
Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/17/2021
A Quiet Place Part II
Paramount Pictures
9/24/2021
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
9/24/2021
Dear Evan Hansen
NEW
NEW
Universal Pictures
9/24/2021
The Many Saints of Newark
Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021
The Addams Family 2
United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021
Dune
Warner Bros. Pictures
10/8/2021
No Time to Die
MGM
10/15/2021
Halloween Kills
Universal Pictures
10/15/2021
The Last Duel
Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021
Last Night in Soho
Focus Features
10/22/2021
Ron’s Gone Wrong
Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021
Snake Eyes
Paramount Pictures
10/29/2021
Antlers
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/5/2021
Clifford the Big Red Dog
Paramount Pictures
11/5/2021
Eternals
Disney / Marvel Studios
11/11/2021
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Sony Pictures / Columbia
11/19/2021
King Richard
Warner Bros. Pictures
11/19/2021
Mission: Impossible 7
Paramount Pictures
11/24/2021
Encanto
Walt Disney Pictures
12/3/2021
Nightmare Alley (Limited)
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/10/2021
American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story
Lionsgate
12/10/2021
Cyrano
United Artists Releasing
12/10/2021
West Side Story (2020)
Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/17/2021
Marvel Studios – Sony Untitled Spider-Man: Far From Home Sequel
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/17/2021
Untitled Disney Live Action
Walt Disney Pictures
12/22/2021
Untitled Matrix Sequel
Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2021
Sing 2
Universal Pictures
12/22/2021
The Nightingale
Sony Pictures / Columbia
As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving. Market projections are subject to breaking announcements at any moment.
This column will continue to track the impact of release date changes in the weeks ahead.
The highest grossing movie on planet earth in 2020 was China’s The Eight Hundred, becoming the first title outside the Hollywood system to accomplish the feat with $450.5 million, according to numbers provided to Boxoffice PRO by Chinese distributor Huayi Brothers. The film beat Sony’s Bad Boys For Life, the year’s second-biggest earner with $426.5 million total.
The action drama directed by Guan Hu was based on the true story of 452 Chinese soldiers who fought against thousands of Japanese invaders in a 1937 battle. (The title The Eight Hundred is based on the exaggerated number of troops their commander claimed they had.)
The first Chinese film shot entirely on IMAX cameras, more than 99 percent of of its earnings came in China, with $448.2 million. When Tenet — the first major Hollywood release since the pandemic — debuted in China on the September 4 weekend, The Eight Hundred beat it at the box office there despite being on its third frame. With token grosses in a few other markets, the film has only earned $373 thousand in North America.
Released on August 21 after a yearlong delay following a planned 2019 release, the film likely would have been a local smash anyway. But it particularly struck a nerve with Chinese audiences this year as a story of patriotic pride amid the country’s plummeting global reputation.
Of course, the pandemic and resulting depressed global box office skewed the scales considerably. Despite the surging Chinese box office of recent years, The Eight Hundred‘s top spot on the global year-end charts likely doesn’t portend a new normal. In 2019, all of the top 10 movies at the global box office were Hollywood products. That year, The Eight Hundred would have ranked as only the #17 film globally, while Bad Boys For Life would have ranked #19.
Nonetheless, The Eight Hundred now stands as the ninth-biggest movie of all time in China. 2017’s Wolf Warrior 2 leads that list, in which nine of the top 10 are Chinese films, with the only Hollywood title being 2019’s Avengers: Endgame at #4.
The Eight Hundred‘s 2020 success comes amid a larger story: China’s overall box office overtook the U.S. for the first time in 2020. While that tipping point was projected to occur at some point during the next decade, China tamped down on COVID-19 more than almost any other country due to aggressive lockdown measures, allowing cinemas to come back during the second half of 2020 to a level few other nations matched.
In 2019, though, China’s total box office came in at $9.2 billion, versus $11.4 billion in the U.S./Canada. Depending on the speed of vaccine rollout, it’s possible that the U.S. could regain its title as the world’s largest box office market in 2021.
After being forced to close his Florence, Oregon theater City Lights Cinemas for a third time last fall, Michael Falter decided to test a curbside popcorn drive as a means of keeping his staff employed. Though Falter had his doubts about how fruitful it would end up being, the community’s response was so great that he’s still feeling the aftereffects.
“Our first edition in November was insane – I’m still working through repetitive strain injuries to my shoulder from popping so much popcorn,” Falter tells Boxoffice Pro. “At one point, staff counted a line of 40 cars.”
The November event was so successful for City Lights Cinemas that Falter and his wife and co-owner, Susan Tive, decided to do it weekly – all while dressing themselves and their staff in goofy butter and popcorn costumes to add a dose of fun to the proceedings. “Our patrons get a good laugh, and during inclement weather I’m told the popcorn costume keeps staff warm,” Falter cracks.
City Lights Cinemas has also used the curbside popcorn drives to give back. The day after Christmas, Falter and Tive made the drive into a fundraiser for a local arts organization that has been barred from holding live events during COVID-19, ultimately raising nearly $1,000 from sales of $5 popcorn and sodas.
“It’s been a remarkable show of solidarity for this town, and we owe lot to our popcorn—always made with real butter and all the fixings,” Falter adds.
City Lights Cinemas co-owner Susan Tive and staffer Jenna Bartlett dress to impress for the theater’s curbside concessions day. (Photo Credit: Michael Falter)
With more than half of hardtop theaters currently shuttered in the U.S., concessions sales – long a prime revenue driver for exhibitors – have become more crucial than ever. During the pandemic, major chains and independent theaters alike have employed curbside concessions pickups to keep at least some revenue flowing, in addition to efforts such as drive-in installations and private watch parties.
The value of concessions in keeping theaters in business during the pandemic was underlined during the most recent National Popcorn Day on Jan. 19, when chains including Cinemark, Showcase, Studio Movie Grill and EVO Entertainment all paid tribute to the buttery snack with promotions for free or reduced-price popcorn. Though these types of promotions are typically employed every year, the pandemic’s toll on the exhibition industry over the past 10 months made them especially resonant in 2021. For many, they provided an opportunity to keep theaters in community members’ minds as the industry looks to a return to widespread moviegoing in the U.S. in the latter half of the year.
“A key component of our strategy throughout the course of the pandemic has been to keep the cinematic experience front of mind with our guests by providing a sense of consistency,” Mitch Roberts, CEO of EVO Entertainment Group, tells Boxoffice Pro. “Continuing our tradition of celebrating National Popcorn Day is one of many great ways we’ve been able to do that.”
Studio Movie Grill took that strategy one step further by tying in its National Popcorn Day promotion with the theater’s SMG Access loyalty program, offering two free movie tickets and a free small popcorn per day (for dine-in or takeout) through the end of February to anyone who signed up. Embedded in the promotion was a “we’re all in this together” sentiment, employed by Studio Movie Grill’s head of revenue and marketing Tonya Mangels in a statement included with the original announcement — in essence compelling SMG customers to take advantage of the offer by reminding them of their own personal stake in the theaters’ continued existence.
Courtesy of Studio Movie Grill
“This is our way of saying ‘thank you’ for the ongoing support helping your local theater survive the pandemic and save jobs by rewarding loyal guests,” said Mangels in her statement.
In East Aurora, New York, the nearly 100-year-old Aurora Theater – which closed its doors again in early January, citing a lack of new releases and community interest – was already set up for takeout popcorn sales thanks to its on-site Aurora Popcorn Shop, which sells a wide variety of bagged flavored popcorn made in house every day. Though it was installed five years ago as a source of additional revenue for the theater, it has taken on increased importance during COVID-19 and even become “a growing business in its own right,” says Aurora Theater owner Lynn Kinsella.
“Popcorn has always been a movie mainstay, and during these challenging times we have been fortunate to have great support for our in-lobby gourmet popcorn shop,” says Kinsella. “The Aurora Popcorn Shop with its many flavors of popcorn has played a starring role in getting us through the pandemic.”
Courtesy of the Aurora Theater
As challenging as coronavirus shutdowns have been for exhibitors, the pandemic has also presented an opportunity for new ways of thinking. At EVO, Roberts says that many of the strategies the company has employed to keep its seven Texas theaters in business – including, yes, curbside concessions – will likely remain in place once the business is back in full swing.
“Many characterize creative initiatives like curbside food & beverage, alternative content, and private watch parties as short-term attempts to survive this crisis,” says Roberts. “While that may have been the spark to start the forge, the tools built within it will be long term sources of incremental revenue when volumes return to pre-pandemic levels over the next couple of years.”
As January comes to a close, exhibition and willing/able moviegoers are still looking for fresh content on the big screen. Warner Bros., as part of their 2021 strategy to release films simultaneously in theaters and streaming on HBO Max, will provide just that with The Little Things starting this Friday.
With a trio of A-list stars fronting the thriller, The Little Things is a strong candidate to bow atop the domestic box office in its first weekend. Still, it’s hard to deny the pic could be heavily impacted on two fronts: the ongoing pandemic and major market closures, plus cannibalized earnings due to streaming availability. It’s likely that not even Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, and Jared Leto will be able to change that narrative.
Still, in a market where Liam Neeson has already driven two films to $3 million-plus opening weekends (last October’s Honest Thief and this month’s The Marksman) during the health crisis, there’s some reason to be optimistic about The Little Things and its ability to court regular moviegoers during this time — especially those without HBO subscriptions.
If reviews matter to any extent right now, the film’s 47 percent Rotten Tomatoes score is something to consider. Marketing has been quite minimal, too, with a campaign only ramping up two weeks ago. That’s understandable given the studio’s position of minimizing costs amid the experimental release strategy.
As another counterpoint, The Little Things will open on a football-free weekend in the United States with the gap between last week’s championship games and next weekend’s Super Bowl. Still, The Marksman reached $3.1 million in its first three days two frames back — without a streaming release and with the MLK holiday boosting Sunday.
Ultimately, models remain highly volatile given the lack of comps opening with this film’s exact conditions and the concern that poor reviews could shift some preference toward watching the film at home. As a result, a debut box office weekend anywhere between $1 million and $4 million is possible.
Elsewhere, Sony will re-release Groundhog’s Day in an as-yet-unreported number of theaters just ahead of next week’s titular holiday. Disney will also capitalize on the new Denzel film and the nearing end of football season with a re-issue of Remember the Titans at 730 locations.
On the indie studio front, Gravitas Ventures will expand Our Friend into 818 locations after its solid $240K debut last weekend, while Bleecker Street will launch Supernova in 330 cinemas.
Weekend Forecast
Film
Distributor
3-Day Weekend Forecast
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 31
Location Count
% Change from Last Wknd
The Little Things
Warner Bros. Studios
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
n/a
NEW
The Croods: A New Age
Universal Pictures
$1,600,000
$43,700,000
1,901
-11%
The Marksman
Open Road Films / Briarcliff Entertainment
$1,400,000
$8,000,000
2,018
-31%
Wonder Woman 1984
Warner Bros. Studios
$1,300,000
$39,600,000
n/a
-17%
Monster Hunter
Sony / Columbia
$750,000
$11,150,000
n/a
-9%
News of the World
Universal Pictures
$640,000
$10,450,000
1,674
-18%
Promising Young Woman
Focus Features
$340,000
$4,450,000
1,056
-14%
Fatale
Lionsgate
$330,000
$5,700,000
1,020
-17%
Our Friend
Gravitas Ventures
$210,000
$520,000
818
-13%
The War with Grandpa
101 Studios
$155,000
$19,650,000
525
-3%
All forecasts subject to change before the first confirmation of weekend estimates from studios or alternative sources.
Forecasts above do not necessarily represent the top ten, but rather films with the widest theatrical footprint based on studio confirmations entering the weekend.
For press and media inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins
Motion Technology Inc. (MTI), manufacturer of the AutoFry and a provider of ventless foodservice equipment technology, today announced the promotion of Kathy R Smith to president.
Ms. Smith joined MTI in 2008 in a sales management position and quickly rose to supervisory and management positions, including vice president of sales and marketing.
“Kathy has been a key contributor to our success and in her new role will be instrumental in developing and implementing our future growth strategies,” said Bill McMahon, CEO.
As the economy shifted due to the pandemic, Ms. Smith helped MTI navigate through the many changes experienced by the industry. She benefits from over thirty years of experience in both manufacturing and marketing, which places her in an ideal position to lead MTI as the company continues to develop ventless foodservice solutions.
“I am honored to assume this new position at MTI,” said Smith. “MTI’s transformation over the past few years has been an exciting ride, and I look forward to working with our leadership group and innovative team to continue our success in the foodservice industry.”
Ireland-based boutique exhibitor Arc Cinema has signed a long-term lease with national urban regenerator Muse Developments to become the leisure anchor at Rotherham’s Forge Island, which will see a key area in the heart of the town centr repurposed into a vibrant mixed-use destination.
Arc Cinema currently has six sites across the U.K. and Ireland, with a further two U.K. sites under construction and due to open in mid-2021. It specializes in providing a VIP cinema experience for the price of a standard ticket.
Plans for Forge Island include the new Arc Cinema location, a new hotel, food and drink outlets, and a car park. The new leisure facilities will be set within a public square with a new pedestrian bridge connecting the area to the wider town center.
Brian Gilligan, director at Melcorpo, which runs The Arc Cinema, said: “We were delighted to be selected by Rotherham Council and Muse to bring one of our state-of-the-art cinemas to the Forge Island site. We would like to express our grateful thanks to them for their support in helping make this possible.
“The large high-specification eight-screen cinema has been specially designed to ensure we become a leisure hub, enabling us to provide a focal point for the people of Rotherham. Our customers love the fact that we offer a luxurious VIP experience, but we only charge standard cinema prices. We think that unique combination is perfectly suited to Rotherham.
“Everyone is really looking forward to treats like cinema and restaurant trips again, so we’re particularly excited to have the opportunity to be part of this good news story for the Rotherham community at this time.”
Dan Needham, development director at Muse Developments, said: “Agreeing a deal with such a respected operator as The Arc Cinema is a ringing endorsement of the innovative plans we’re looking to deliver at Forge Island.
“Working collaboratively with the council and partners, we’re working hard to develop a game-changing scheme that will bring a real vibrancy not seen before, that will drive inward investment and growth to the local economy, while providing opportunities and prosperity at a time that it’s needed most. Forge Island represents what can be achieved when the best of the public and private sector come together with the same vision, drive and goal in mind.”
Rotherham Council’s cabinet member for jobs and the local economy, Cllr Denise Lelliott, said: “This is a significant milestone in Rotherham’s development which we are excited to announce. We can’t wait to see a brand new, state of the art, eight-screen cinema on Forge Island—bringing blockbuster movies back to the town centre for the first time in over 30 years.
“We are delighted to have secured Arc Cinema because of its approach to delivering high-quality screenings tailored to local communities. The Arc Cinema will be an asset to Rotherham, and I’m really pleased the operator has selected the town as one if its locations to continue its rollout of cinemas across the U.K. and Yorkshire.
“Our development also presents an exciting opportunity for restaurants, bars and cafes looking to be part of what will be one of the most attractive town centre leisure destinations in the region.”
Following the deal with The Arc Cinema, and discussions advancing with a major hotel operator, it is anticipated that construction will begin in autumn 2021.
This week on the Boxoffice Podcast, Boxoffice Chief Analyst Shawn Robbins—along with co-hosts Russ Fischer and Daniel Loria—break down the latest wave of release date shifts, which has seen a bevy of titles (starting with No Time to Die) vacate the first half of 2021 for the ever-more-crowded latter part of the year.
This week’s episode of the Boxoffice Podcast is brought to you by QSC. Visit QSC.com/podcast to find out more.
The Inevitability of No Time To Die‘s Release Date Change
It was really pretty clear by the holidays that [No Time to Die sticking to April] was very unlikely to happen. It’s not our job to discuss politics, but I think it’s hard to deny the fact that within 24 hours of every major media outlet reporting that there had been virtually no vaccine rollout plan, this film is officially delayed, followed by a slew of others. It really underscores how much Hollywood is waiting on that rollout to become more effective and for audiences to be more comfortable going back out and doing things like going to the movies. So the writing had been on the wall for a while. This was not a shocking move. And I think for it to go back into October probably puts it in a safer position. But, as we all know, we’ll have to reassess in a few months. Hopefully, things are a little bit closer to normal by then.
The Pandemic-Era Box Office Earnings Power of Family Movies
I think most family movies are relatively safe on the slate, because we’ve seen films like The Croods: A New Age and The War with Grandpa be pillars of the reopening during the pandemic so far. They’re not drawing the usual large audiences, but they are proving to be the movies that people are wanting to go out and see. Because, where it’s safe and possible to do so, parents want to get their kids out of the house. And I think [the untitled Addams Family sequel, which moved forward one week to October 1, is] going to be one of those early titles—worst case scenario, if we don’t get the summer or at least half of the summer we’re hoping for in terms of going to theaters, by the fall there is this general expectation that this is when we can really start things somewhat being back to normal. Maybe not 100%. But, if that’s the case, I think this is one of those movies that will be really attractive for those audiences.
On Warner Bros. and Universal’s Shifting Windows Policies
Ironically, it looks like no matter how controversial this HBO Max deal is, Warner Bros.—along with Universal and their dynamic window—are really the only two studios that we can safely trust to release movies for the entire first half of this year. I know it’s a it’s a very controversial stance the studios have taken, but they’ve shown at least a willingness to take a risk by releasing these movies when they would make a fraction of what they would have made in the second half of 2021.
The International Union of Cinemas (UNIC), which represents cinema trade associations and operators in 38 markets across Europe, has released preliminary 2020 box office estimates for the territories covered by the organization. Their findings indicate that, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and its resultant closures and occupancy restrictions, European cinemas saw a 70.6 percent drop in box office in 2020, accounting for a total decrease of €6.2 billion in revenues compared to 2019. A 69 percent reduction could be observed in the cinemas hailing from the European Union, resulting in a €4.0 billion drop in revenues.
These figures come after a very successful 2019, when European cinemas grossed over €8.8 billion at the box office and attracted more than 1.34 billion cinema-goers. In the European Union, cinemas had recorded their best results in 15 years, with admissions reaching the 1 billion mark for the first time since 2004.
Courtesy UNIC
Additional impacts on revenues—such as lost concession sales and screen advertising income as well as cancelled events—have put the cinema industry under significant financial strain, with thousands of staff members furloughed in the past months. Despite these unprecedented challenges, cinema operators have shown their resilience and capacity to adapt, preparing and implementing detailed health and safety guidelines while launching reopening campaigns.
Despite a lack of new film content, in particular from the major US studios, cinemas have shown their essential role in the promotion of local content and European culture. With the support of local distributors and producers, national films’ market share reached new heights across the region, such as in Denmark (49.4%), Czech Republic (46.4%), France (44.9%), Italy (56.6%), Russia (46.9%), and Poland (50%). In total, 15 European territories registered a market share for national films of above 25 percent as audiences returned to cinemas during summer 2020.
National governments and European institutions have introduced various support schemes since the start of the crisis, which have been crucial to cinema operators. But the crisis is far from over, with most European cinemas still closed at this time. UNIC urges policy-makers at the local, national and European level to enforce strong recovery strategies to ensure that European cinemas—of all sizes and all locations—can survive this challenging period and be once again the vibrant home of culture, freedom and community.
Comscore will release a product intended to better capture viewership across platforms — including theatrical, streaming, and premium video on demand (PVOD) — they announced Monday.
The data analytics company already serves as one of the main third-party organizations for theatrical box office verification, but with this upcoming tool will also provide daily sales reports across assorted film release windows and platforms in a combined form for the first time.
Additional features including breakdowns of audience demographics, regional in addition to national data, and the ability to track viewership of advertisements.
This new product comes as the Covid-19 pandemic and shelter-at-home measures have led to increases in streaming subscriptions, purchases, and viewership. A company press release did not include a launch date for the product.
“We look forward to continue to set new measurement standards that harnesses our decades of unmatched box office and transactional video information,” Comscore CEO Bill Livek said in a press release, adding this new product will “provide studios the consideration needed to reinvent their strategies and thrive in this new era.”
On a weekend with no new wide releases in the marketplace and just 43% of theaters across the country remaining open, Open Road’s The Marksman kept its hold on the No. 1 spot at the box office with an estimated $2.03 million, a drop of 35% from its debut. The Liam Neeson thriller now has $6.09 million after ten days of release.
Easing just 9% from last weekend was The Croods: A New Age, which continues pulling in family audiences in its ninth weekend of release. The Universal sequel grossed an estimated $1.82 million, bringing its total to $41.83 million to date.
Wonder Woman 1984 finished in third place with an estimated $1.6 million, a drop of 38%. That brings the domestic total for the Warner Bros. sequel to $37.7 million through the end of its fifth weekend.
Coming in fourth place was Sony’s Monster Hunter, which grossed an estimated $820,000 for the weekend (a drop of just 11%) for a total of $10.2 million to date.
Rounding out the top five was Universal’s News of the World, which dipped 19% to an estimated $810,000 this weekend. The Oscar-tipped Tom Hanks Western — which could switch positions with Monster Hunter once actuals are tallied given the scant $10,000 difference between the two titles — has $9.65 million through the end of its fifth weekend.
Opening in 543 locations was Gravitas Ventures’ Our Friend, which debuted with an estimated $250,000. The dramedy starring Casey Affleck, Dakota Johnson and Jason Segel – which first premiered at the 2019 Toronto Film Festival – is also currently available in PVOD.
RLJE Films released the horror-comedy PG: Psycho Goreman on 45 screens and brought in an estimated $44,500 for the weekend.
OVERSEAS
Wonder Woman 1984 grossed an estimated $2.1 million overseas, bringing its international tally to $110.3 million and its worldwide total to $148 million.
The Croods: A New Age continued its slow creep to $100 million internationally with an estimated $1.62 million gross this weekend, bringing its overseas total to $97.96 million and its global cume to $139.8 million to date.
The Michigan-based cinema exhibition chain MJR Digital Cinemas will reopen all in-theater concessions on February 1, they announced Friday.
The chain ranked #33 on the Boxoffice PRO list Giants of Exhibition 2020, with 164 screens at 10 locations, all located in Michigan.
After Michigan relaxed some pandemic-era restrictions, MJR reopened all 10 locations on October 9, before closing them again in mid-November, then reopening once again starting December 23 in time for Wonder Woman 1984 and other holiday releases.
The company’s concessions include pizza, nachos, pretzels, and hot dogs.
Cinema software company POSitive Cinemas announced a partnership with the nascent New Zealand exhibition chain Silky Otter Cinemas on Friday.
Operated by The Otter Group, the budding chain currently operates one location, a two-screen site located in Ōrākei. Two additional sites, both with eight screens, are scheduled to open Christchurch in June and in Richmond, New Zealand later in 2021.
POSitive Cinema software allows exhibitors flexibility and options with features including scheduling showtimes, dine-in and menu items, and digital signage.
“We had a very clear idea on how we wanted our customers to buy tickets and food items and needed a solution flexible enough to match our concept and a solution provider that was willing to listen,” The Otter Group’s Managing Director Ahmed Almukhtar said in a press release. “We looked closely at several solutions available from around the world and decided on POSitive Cinema as the right partner for us.”
Lighting company Ushio Deutschland GmbH announced Friday that it will merge with its sister company BLV under the new name Ushio Germany GmbH, effective on February 1.
Ushio is a specialty lighting producer, whose products include cinema lamps and laser projectors. With the parent company headquartered in Japan, their European subsidiary Ushio Deutschland GmbH was founded in 1992.
BLV is another lighting company whose product lines include offerings for sports facilities, aquariums, zoos, horticulture, and indoor greenery. Founded in 1968, they joined the Ushio Group in 1990.
The joint company will be based in Steinhoering, Germany. A press release notes that the name change will not affect any existing or future orders, contracts, or framework contracts.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues impacting the world and vaccine distributions remain nascent, Hollywood studios have delivered another round of major release delays this week.
The lead story here is another push of MGM’s No Time to Die, Daniel Craig’s presumed final installment in the iconic James Bond franchise. The film is now slated to open in North American theaters on October 8 later this year. The anticipated film was previously dated to open over Easter weekend on April 2, that following earlier pandemic-induced delays from April 2020 to November 2020.
As a result of the Bond move, MGM will now open The Addams Family 2 on October 1, one week earlier than planned, where it will (for now) go against Warner Bros.’ Dune. Another effect of 007’s latest shift applies to Sony’s Morbius, which only recently had been delayed from March to October 8. That Marvel adaptation will now open January 21, 2022.
Sony’s Ghostbusters: Afterlife represents another major shift on the schedule, moving from June 11 to November 12. The franchise revival had originally been slated for a June 2020 release before the pandemic. It will now open one week after Disney and Marvel Studios’ Eternals and one week before Paramount’s Mission: Impossible 7 (provided their own dates remain the same).
Taking that film’s former June date will be Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway, now going on June 11 as it hops away from a planned Easter release. Sony also pushed Cinderella from February 5 to July 16, while moving their Uncharted video game adaptation from that July date to February 11, 2022.
Among release shifts in the short term, Universal has moved Nobody from February 26 to April 2 and Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho (Focus Features) from April 23 to October 22. The studio also slated Michael Bay’s Ambulance for a February 18 release during President’s Day weekend.
Earlier this week, Universal moved Amblin’s Bios (starring Tom Hanks) from April 16 to August 13.
Meanwhile, Disney joined in with updates of their own on Friday afternoon. The biggest note from them so far is The King’s Man‘s latest delay, now bowing August 20 instead of March 12. The studio also marked Bob’s Burgers as “unset” (previously April 9) and delayed Ron’s Gone Wrong from April 23 to October 22. All three titles come from 20th Century Studios.
After meeting expectations with a $3.1 million debut, Open Road’s The Marksman looks poised to again lead the domestic box office in its sophomore frame.
The Liam Neeson-driven thriller provided open cinemas their latest boost as the pandemic continues to ravage the country. Honest Thief, the actor’s previous thriller to open during the health crisis last October, eased 43 percent in its second weekend. That’s a fair comparison for Marksman, although coming off of MLK weekend could skew holdover models to some slight extent.
Countering the potential holiday drop-off is the reality that no new wide releases will enter the market this weekend. It’s a running theme this winter as studios try to weather the worst stages of the pandemic and audiences wait for vaccine distributions on a much wider scale. That’s something many are hopeful will improve in the near future as a new administration takes charge in Washington, D.C., though it will still take months for potential impact to be felt in a meaningful way.
As such, holdovers will continue to prop up the struggling box office throughout the remainder of January and much of February — at least. Family-driven and prestige titles, though, have notably generated modest week-to-week declines even as an estimated 57 percent of domestic theaters were closed as of the end of last weekend.
Behind The Marksman, for example, should be a close battle for second place this weekend. The Croods: A New Age hasn’t slipped more than 32 percent since its sophomore frame back in early December, despite being available as a PVOD release for the past month. An estimated $100,000 separated that flick and Wonder Woman 1984 at the box office during the MLK frame, so it’s conceivable for the Universal animated title to leapfrog past the DC sequel this weekend.
Meanwhile, News of the World and Promising Young Woman should continue to draw attention as word of mouth and award season heat benefit their theatrical runs and PVOD availability.
Debuting in limited release this weekend are IFC Film’s No Man’s Land in 255 theaters and Gravitas Ventures’ Our Friend in an undisclosed number of locations. Based on Showtimes Dashboard bookings, the latter could reach a projected 550 cinemas as it currently ranks ninth in total showings during the week ahead.
Weekend Forecast
Film
Distributor
3-Day Weekend Forecast
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 24
Location Count
% Change from Last Wknd
The Marksman
Open Road Films / Briarcliff Entertainment
$2,000,000
$6,100,000
2,018
-36%
The Croods: A New Age
Universal Pictures
$1,700,000
$41,750,000
1,876
-15%
Wonder Woman 1984
Warner Bros. Studios
$1,600,000
$37,900,000
n/a
-21%
News of the World
Universal Pictures
$830,000
$9,675,000
1,874
-17%
Monster Hunter
Sony / Columbia
$725,000
$10,100,000
1,661
-22%
Promising Young Woman
Focus Features
$375,000
$4,000,000
1,236
-16%
Fatale
Lionsgate
$370,000
$5,250,000
1,130
-21%
The War with Grandpa
101 Studios
$145,000
$19,475,000
507
-10%
Pinocchio (2020)
Roadside Attractions
$120,000
$1,530,000
602
-23%
The Emperor’s New Groove (2020 Re-Issue)
Walt Disney Pictures
$110,000
$350,000
635
-31%
All forecasts subject to change before the first confirmation of weekend estimates from studios or alternative sources.
Forecasts above do not necessarily represent the top ten, but rather films with the widest theatrical footprint based on studio confirmations entering the weekend.
For press and media inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins
CineStar Bosnia and Herzegovina has chosen 4K laser projection by Cinionic for its new destination cinema, CineStar 4DX Sarajevo – Bingo City Center. As part of the deal, Cinionic—a joint venture of Barco, CGS, and ALPD—brings its award-winning Barco Series 4 laser projection to the theater’s 10 auditoriums.
The CineStar Group, which was named UNIC’s International Exhibitor of the Year in 2019, is one of the fastest growing theater circuits in Europe. Sarajevo – Bingo City Center is CineStar Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sixth location and the largest multiplex theater in the country.
Cinionic was the “clear choice,” says Jadranka Islamović, CEO of CineStar Cinema and member of their board. “Our goal is to provide the most immersive and enjoyable cinema experience for our customers, and Cinionic continues to deliver the support and technology we need. … We’re excited to offer our guests at CineStar Sarajevo theater the exceptional film presentation that 4K Barco laser projection from Cinionic provides.”
Cinionic has supported CineStar and been the exclusive technology provider for all of the circuit’s theaters in the region for over ten years. The addition of Cinionic projectors in theaters is one in a series of steps CineStar has made in an attempt to engage and reignite the rich film history and influence in Sarajevo.
“CineStar’s focus on technology and innovation ensures audiences in Bosnia and Herzegovina have access to state-of-the-art cinema for years to come,” says Cinionic CEO Wim Buyens. “At Cinionic, we continue to invest in the leading laser solutions that elevate the moviegoing experience. We are proud to stand alongside long-term partners like CineStar as we work to power the next-generation of cinema.”
The CineStar announcement marks the most recent step in the expansion of Cinionic’s laser projection footprint. In 2019, Cinionic reached a new milestone in projection technology with the release of their family of Barco Series 4 laser projection solutions, which integrates Barco’s patented AIM (Active Image Management) technology. In 2020, Cinionic expanded the line with the release of an extended range of models, including the SP2K for smaller screens.
This week on the Boxoffice Podcast, Luis Castelazo—CFO of CMX Cinemas, the U.S. arm of Mexican circuit Cinemex—elaborates on a December 2020 open letter in which he called for a change in the exhibition status quo: If the theatrical exclusivity shrinks, so will movie theater attendance, and thus so too should film rental fees. Below is a condensed version of the conversation with Castelazo, which can be listened to in full here or on your podcast service of choice.
It’s been an interesting start to 2021 as we’re all balancing what this recovery is going to look like. To get started, why don’t you tell us a little bit about CMX Cinemas? It’s a circuit that jumped onto the scene in the United States not that long ago and quickly rose to become one of the top 10 circuits in the market.
Correct. We got here in the U.S. in 2017. We opened our first location in Miami in Brickell City Centre. And from there we grew very quickly. We reached the 40 location mark last year. We have had lots of ups and down. We had to file Chapter 11. But thankfully, with the help of everyone on the team, we’re out of Chapter 11 and ready to continue operating here in the US..
I’ve had a chance to visit your location in New York City—I really do recommend it when theaters open back up. It’s a very luxurious cinema.
That’s the way we build all the new theaters. Whenever we remodel them, we do them with the same look and feel like the one in New York. I hate to break the news, but the New York City one was one of the ones we rejected during our Chapter 11. So that one is no longer ours. However, we do have many more throughout the country.
Your Miami location is fascinating. It really is one of those premier locations in the city. One of the things you did was adopt this concept of not only having to rely on the movie theater experience itself. You also added a sports bar to that Miami location. I believe it was called Stone?
That’s correct. Yes, we did that in Miami. It works really well. We’ve done the same with old and new ones that we’ve been building. People can go there not only to watch a movie, but also to enjoy a game or simply watch whatever is on TV at that moment.
In a city like Miami, you have a very diverse culture. You should see how the crowds get at the movie theaters during the World Cup. It’s interesting, because a World Cup summer is usually a down time for a lot of movie theaters around the world. CMX has also introduced some concepts that I find very interesting on the concession side. I believe you have that grab and go concessions food court—is it in your Closter, New Jersey location?
Correct. We have it there. We also have it in Illinois. Basically what we’re offering is higher-end food that you can get from a grab and go station, or from an actual station where it is prepared at the moment. Basically, it’s like a market—and actually the concept is called Markets. You take your things. You pay at the end. And you take them to your seat. It’s not the super highest-end like our CinéBistro concept, where we have the servers come to your seats and give everything to you. But it’s certainly a much higher-end experience than the regular concessions.
Have you integrated mobile ordering into that? Or is that something that that you’re looking into?
We’re working towards implementing this. Yes.
When CMX filed for Chapter 11 in 2020, it was notable because it was the first major circuit in the North American market to do so. And in that piece of news was an important detail that Luis would end up expanding on by the end of the year, which was: Film rentals and the economic structure of how things have to change in order for the industry to really get back up and running. CMX was a little bit on the forefront of realizing how big this crisis was going to be and that really, we had to have a recalibration and a radical realignment of how the industry works. Could you tell us a little bit about how the film business has traditionally worked for a major circuit like CMX?
Traditionally, in the U.S., the studios have always charged a percentage of movie ticket sales. That percentage has been going up. If we go back to the 70s and we research what that percentage was, that percentage was below 30 percent. So that means less than 30 percent of the ticket sales would go to the studios. The movie theaters were able to keep more than 70 percent. Studios, obviously, have the power to continue increasing that. Otherwise, if we don’t book their movies, we’re worse off.
So they have been able to increase this percentage through the years. And if you check out the public companies last year—or at least their U.S. operations—this percentage is 56, 57 percent of movie tickets. So what this has provoked is [that movie theaters]—they don’t have the margins that they used to. So they’ve had to try to get money from somewhere else. Generally, you’ve seen the movie theaters are maybe not as VIP an experience as you’ve seen in other countries. And this may be the reason: Movie theaters trying to save money and increase the price of food and beverage to be able to survive.
How does the film rental situation compare to the way things are in other countries?
Cinemex operates only in Mexico, where it also works as a percentage. Now, obviously, it’s confidential information, and I can’t comment on the percentages that they have there. You speak to anyone in the industry, and you’ll see that it varies by country. In the public companies, you will see that the operations of a single company in different countries, the percentage is different. A lot has been said also about changing the structure. It doesn’t make sense maybe anymore to have a percentage. Maybe it makes sense to have a set price or a per capita.
And I’ll give you an example. It’s not the same for someone who invests millions of dollars to have the best VIP offering—a great seat with with a lot of space—than someone who just crammed seats together and doesn’t offer anything else. In the end, if we are investing in offering a VIP experience, why do I have to share part of that with the studios? If someone watches a movie in my theater [versus] a theater that didn’t invest in in high end facilities, why do we have to pay more? The studio should be concerned about getting paid for each specific person that watches a movie and not take part of my big investment in putting VIP offerings in our facilities. That’s another thing that could change. But we’ll see what happens.
It’s an evolution of that same conversation that took place around the time of the conversion to digital. “Who pays for this?”
Exactly.
It’s really something we’ve seen with a lot of the international and multinational circuits coming into the U.S. market—something that I think we started to see 10, 15 years ago—where the standard of the movie theater experience in other countries started to slightly revitalize the way we were seeing movie theaters here in the U.S.. And those investments, as you note in your open letter, are significant. In other words, the investment for a movie theater is significantly more than an investment for a bar or a restaurant. And when you are facing a split or a percentage of your admissions revenues that is continuously smaller and smaller on your end for the studios, that can get difficult. In that open letter, you mentioned a couple of solutions that you thought would be viable for exhibition to get back on its feet. I was wondering if you could take us through those proposals and how they could work.
The studios have historically given us a window, or a number of days in which we have exclusivity before they release their movies elsewhere. Namely, their online apps. Because we have been given this exclusivity window, they have been able to charge a very high percentage. Now, if today they decide to reduce that window or to eliminate that window completely, then they can’t possibly charge the same. Because, obviously, our attendance will drop.
So what I did in this open letter—specifically for CMX—was to calculate more or less what this percentage should be when we have less attendance because of these decisions that [studios are] making. So if our attendance is reduced by 50 percent, then the percentage that they have to charge us is very similar to what they were charging us in the 70s, if we want to maintain the same profitability. So that’s that’s basically the proposal. If we’re not having that historical exclusivity, then the percentage that they charge us for every movie should be drastically reduced. And the reduction should be calculated based on how much our attendance is impacted, versus having that exclusivity that we have enjoyed for several decades.
CMX has done that analysis to determine what the drop in attendance would be if a movie goes day-and-date or if its exclusivity window is shortened drastically. And you say that film rental should be adjusted to reflect that drop. But how do you determine what the drop is going to be? And how can you say what it was caused by? The studio could come back and say, ‘No, this drop isn’t because of streaming. It’s because of something to do with the theater or something to do with the movie itself.‘
Thankfully, we have a lot of data from the past. Whenever we have a new movie, there are movies that are similar that we can compare to. That’s the way it’s always been done. Of course, the forecasts of box office in the United States or of attendance in the United States are not always perfect. But they have been somewhat reliable. We have been able to predict—and I say “we” as in “the industry”—how much box office we’ll be able to produce. My conclusion is that just as we have been able to forecast to some extent how each movie will do, we should be able to come with a good expectation of range of how much it would do if it weren’t sent to a streaming platform. And how much it actually did if it is sent to a streaming platform earlier or at the same time as in movie theaters. It is not perfect. But so far, we’ve been able to do a fairly good job, historically,
What’s notable about this is it that it implies, from the exhibition side, a flexibility on the windows conversation, which has been a very fraught conversation for many decades in this industry. I’ve heard it from many exhibitors: “Okay, if there is this push to shorter windows, we have to restructure how everything is working so the system can still survive with a shorter windows.” It’s not as the conversation used to go: “Shorter windows are a non-starter.” In your experience, have studios been amenable at looking at restructuring these arrangements? Or are we so early in the conversation that it’s a little bit of that Warner Bros. situation, where something is announced, and the details really haven’t been worked out yet?
I would say it’s more the latter. We’ve had conversations, even before the pandemic. Everyone is looking into how things are going to settle down and who does the first move. It’s not like we’ve been able to arrange any kind of new deals. But we hope that we can work and make these new arrangements, which will save the industry and also help the studios. We’re not opposed, at least speaking for CMX, to having the windows being reduced or eliminated. But what we need is a different kind of film rental that is fair for both parties.
When it comes to shortened windows, obviously, it’s very early days, and the number one factor affecting attendance is Covid, not streaming. That said, regarding Wonder Woman 1984: Looking at how things have been at CMX or maybe in discussions with other exhibitors, have you gotten the sense that the day-and-date release of the film affected theatrical attendance at all?
When it was released, the first week was really, really good. Taking into account that we’re in the middle of the pandemic, of course. Because of the pandemic, what happened is that the people who are really, really hard fans of the movie are the ones who went on the first week. Usually when we have a blockbuster such as that one, the number of people attending keeps being high for the next couple of weeks. But that’s not during a pandemic. During a pandemic, of course, things change. As you know, we have a restricted number of seats we can sell depending on the state and county. It is very difficult to know what would have happened if there wasn’t a pandemic. With a movie being released in an online platform at the same time as in theaters, it’s difficult to know what would have happened.
We are looking at this year as a recovery year for the cinema industry. What does that recovery mean for you? And when do you think—maybe not specifically when audiences will be able to come back without restrictions—but how much do you believe this industry can recover with shortened windows? Are we going to have that $11 billion streak that we had in North America once again? Or with shorter windows, are we looking at potentially a smaller market?
I wish I could answer that and know exactly what’s going to happen. My take is that most of the studios have pushed their big movies to the future. They have simply postponed them. It’s only a handful that they decided to send to streaming platforms. I would say in the short term, the next two or three years, once we’re out of the pandemic—they should be very good years. And we should get back to normal, despite shortening windows. Because I believe we’re going to have a lot of offerings out there.
Now, what will happen beyond that, I think it is difficult to know. But the with fact that there will be so many offerings in so many different platforms and on movie theaters, I think people are just going to have too many options to watch a movie. But just as people have too many options to go to a restaurant, instead of dining at home, you still want to go to a restaurant. So I believe there’s still going to be a market for people to enjoy movies on the big screen and to be able to have something else that maybe they can’t have at home. In our case, the CMX Stone sports bar or VIP facilities. So I’m not sure if the industry will be as large as it has historically been or it will be smaller. But what I do know is that the industry will still be here for many years to come.
