Long Range Box Office Forecast: Q1 2021’s Souring Pace Amid Further Delays — When Might Theatrical Recovery Begin?

As we say goodbye to the first month of a new year and eagerly await the next — if only to get one step closer toward recovery amid the pandemic — there’s good news and bad news.

The good news: Vaccine distribution plans are beginning to take shape after a disorganized head start in 2020, studios like Universal, Warner Bros., Disney, and a number of indie distributors are putting what limited content into theaters they can, and there remains cautious optimism that this — at some point — will be the year moviegoers are able to return en masse.

The bad news: Although we’re one month through what has long been predicted to be a dire winter in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic and the movie industry itself, there remains a long road and plenty of work ahead.

For perspective on the number of setbacks encountered by cinemas in recent weeks and months, January 2021’s retail reporting period (the first 29 days of the month) will close out with an estimated $155 – 160 million domestic box office haul.

That figure is obviously down from last year’s estimated $760 million January take (achieved in the first 24 days of the month), but more relevantly, represents the lowest earning month of the pandemic since re-openings began late last summer.

By comparison, August and December 2020 have topped the pandemic chart thus far with estimated $120 million and $100 million months, followed by October’s $70 million estimate and November’s $59 million estimate.

Getting Worse Before Getting Better

Unfortunately, the night is indeed darkest before the dawn… which won’t be coming in February. Current market projections indicate the domestic box office could struggle to reach $40 million in the coming month.

The sour outlook is largely due to the repetition of the same news cycle that’s brought the world and the movie business to its knees for the last ten months: release delays, major markets remaining closed, and the raging pandemic yet to come under control.

Looking at February’s calendar, only two major studio releases are on deck: Warner Bros.’ Judas and the Black Messiah (February 12) and Tom & Jerry (February 26). Both will open in theaters the same day as they premiere on HBO Max for free to subscribers, meaning box office expectations are aggressively conservative (as they are for virtually all WB films this year).

Other titles to expect in February include Breaking News in Yuba County from MGM / United Artists Releasing (going day-and-date in theaters and on PVOD), Focus Features’ Land, and STX’s The Mauritanian on February 12 in time for President’s Day weekend. Focus will then launch Nomadland on February 19.

Beyond that, attention turns to March with Disney still promising Raya and the Last Dragon as a theatrical release the same day, March 5, as its Premier Access launch on Disney+. It will be the first domestic release from Disney since the pandemic began, coming exactly one year to the weekend after opening Pixar’s Onward. Family films have been among the few bright spots during cinema’s preliminary restart in recent months, meaning Raya could provide a breath of fresh air… and revenue.

For now, March promises to reverse the box office trend thanks to that animated pic and other films like Lionsgate’s Chaos Walking (March 5), Lionsgate’s The Courier (March 19), and Warner Bros.’ Godzilla vs. Kong (March 31). The month was recently stripped of titles like 20th Century Studios’ The King’s Man (moving from March 12 to August 20) and Sony’s Morbius (from March to October and, ultimately, to January 21, 2022).

All told, based on current and very tentative modeling, the first three months of 2021 are pacing to generate an estimated $150 million at the domestic box office. That would be down from Q4 2020’s estimated $230 million and Q3 2020’s estimated $170 million.

Please note: all projections are subject to the reopening of markets like Los Angeles and New York, which in these forecasts are presumed to remain shut down or aggressively limited in operations through March.

Release Delays Impact Early Q2

From there, the picture is again fuzzy. MGM’s No Time to Die and Sony’s Peter Rabbit 2 vacated their planned Easter releases on April 2 for October 8 and June 11 bows, respectively. Paramount was quick to push A Quiet Place Part II again once those titles weren’t around to provide springtime lead-ins, moving from April 23 to September 17.

At the moment, April’s most high profile titles look to be Universal’s Nobody (moved from February 26 to April 2), Sony’s Fatherhood (April 16, starring Kevin Hart — though likely to be delayed itself), and Warner Bros.’ Mortal Kombat remake (April 16).

In other words, any hope for an early spring reboot of the theatrical ecosphere has withered away over the ugly winter. Now, all eyes on are three next steps: how the vaccine distributions and implementations improve over the next couple of months, whether studios see enough promising box office trends through April to keep a summer slate in tact, and whether or not Disney opts to keep Black Widow attached to its current May 7 release.

Marvel’s Importance to 2021’s Eventual Rebound

For now, that Marvel Studios picture remains planned for theatrical exclusivity. Whether that holds, and/or the date remains, will depend on the state of the pandemic. Based on past timelines, it’s likely we’ll know by or before early-to-mid March what Disney will decide.

While most studios continue delaying major films and reaffirming commitment to the theatrical avenue, Marvel and Disney are in a tight spot. The Marvel Cinematic Universe — which will undoubtedly be a major component in cinematic and moviegoer recovery — has four films slated to release by the end of this December. One of those, the third Spider-Man film set for December 17, belongs to Sony.

Given the storytelling domino nature of the franchise, and while Widow might traditionally be delayed yet again, there is now a rough timeline for some normality returning to everyday life. That means, in theory, we should begin to see more releases in the back half of 2021 stick to their guns — pending no dramatic turns for the worse in the fight against the pandemic.

That also means Marvel has the option to keep at least two or three of those theatrical-only releases in tact… but it could mean Widow ends up making a sacrifice as a day-and-date release in early May if the calendar is upended any further. Not only would such a move provide a transitional period to the second half of summer and early fall when vaccines are having even more of an impact on the national (and global) population, the optics of Disney keeping multiple films on the early 2021 slate might encourage other studios to do the same.

Again, this is all speculation and relies on the timelines offered by health experts and government administration to begin curbing the pandemic. Anything could change, but perhaps for the first time in many months, there is some reason to begin expecting a turn of the tide by the middle of the year.

The world, unfortunately, just has to continue enduring a very dark winter and early spring ahead.

Long Range Forecast & 2021’s Wide Release Calendar

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast Range	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
2/5/2021	Dara of Jasenovac					101 Studios
2/5/2021	Minimata					MGM
2/12/2021	Breaking News in Yuba County	$1,000,000 – $4,000,000	-33%	$3,000,000 – $15,000,000	-38%	MGM / United Artists Releasing
2/12/2021	French Exit					Sony Pictures Classics
2/12/2021	Judas and the Black Messiah	$1,000,000 – $4,000,000	NEW	$3,000,000 – $15,000,000	NEW	Warner Bros. Pictures
2/12/2021	Land					Focus Features
2/12/2021	The Mauritanian (limited)					STXfilms
2/19/2021	Nomadland (Expansion)					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
2/26/2021	Tom & Jerry					Warner Bros. Pictures
3/5/2021	Boogie					Focus Features
3/5/2021	Chaos Walking	$2,000,000 – $7,000,000		$6,000,000 – $25,000,000		Lionsgate
3/5/2021	Raya and the Last Dragon	$7,000,000 – $15,000,000	-14%	$30,000,000 – $60,000,000	-14%	Walt Disney Pictures
3/5/2021	Untitled Universal Event Film (2021)					Universal Pictures
3/19/2021	The Courier	$2,000,000 – $7,000,000	NEW	$7,000,000 – $25,000,000	NEW	Lionsgate
3/19/2021	Last Call					IFC Films
3/19/2021	My Brother’s Keeper					Collide Distribution
3/26/2021	(no releases scheduled)
3/31/2021	Godzilla vs. Kong	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$15.000,000 – $40,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
4/2/2021	Nobody					Universal Pictures
4/16/2021	Fatherhood					Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/16/2021	Mortal Kombat (2021)					Warner Bros. Pictures
4/16/2021	Untitled Universal Event Film II (2021)					Universal Pictures
4/23/2021	The Asset					Lionsgate
4/30/2021	(no releases scheduled)
5/7/2021	Black Widow					Disney / Marvel Studios
5/14/2021	Marry Me					Universal Pictures
5/21/2021	Final Account		NEW		NEW	Focus Features
5/21/2021	Free Guy					Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/21/2021	Spiral: From the Book of Saw					Lionsgate
5/28/2021	Cruella					Walt Disney Pictures
5/28/2021	F9					Universal Pictures
5/28/2021	Infinite					Paramount Pictures
6/4/2021	The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It					Warner Bros. / New Line
6/4/2021	Samaritan					United Artists Releasing
6/4/2021	Spirit Untamed					Universal Pictures
6/4/2021	Vivo					Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/11/2021	Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway					Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/18/2021	In the Heights					Warner Bros. Pictures
6/18/2021	Luca					Disney / Pixar
6/25/2021	Blue Bayou					Focus Features
6/25/2021	Venom: Let There Be Carnage					Sony Pictures / Columbia
6/30/2021	Zola					A24
7/2/2021	Minions: The Rise of Gru					Universal Pictures
7/2/2021	Top Gun: Maverick					Paramount Pictures
7/9/2021	The Forever Purge					Universal Pictures
7/9/2021	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings					Disney / Marvel Studios
7/16/2021	Cinderella (2021)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
7/16/2021	The Night House					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/16/2021	Space Jam: A New Legacy					Warner Bros. Pictures
7/23/2021	The Tomorrow War					Paramount Pictures
7/23/2021	Old					Universal Pictures
7/30/2021	The Green Knight					A24
7/30/2021	Jungle Cruise					Walt Disney Pictures
8/6/2021	Hotel Transylvania 4					Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/6/2021	The Suicide Squad					Warner Bros. Pictures
8/13/2021	Bios					Universal Pictures
8/13/2021	Deep Water					Disney / 20th Century Studios
8/13/2021	Don’t Breathe Sequel					Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/13/2021	Respect					MGM / United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021	Untitled Russo Brothers Family Film					United Artists Releasing
8/13/2021	Untitled Blumhouse Project II (2021)					Universal Pictures
8/20/2021	The Hitman’s Bodyguard 2					Lionsgate
8/20/2021	The King’s Man					Disney / 20th Century Studios
8/20/2021	Paw Patrol					Paramount Pictures
8/27/2021	The Beatles: Get Back					Walt Disney Pictures
8/27/2021	Candyman					Universal Pictures
9/3/2021	Jackass					Paramount Pictures
9/10/2021	Malignant		NEW		NEW	Warner Bros. Pictures
9/17/2021	The Boss Baby: Family Business					Universal Pictures
9/17/2021	Death on the Nile					Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/17/2021	Man from Toronto					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/17/2021	A Quiet Place Part II					Paramount Pictures
9/24/2021	The Eyes of Tammy Faye					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
9/24/2021	Dear Evan Hansen		NEW		NEW	Universal Pictures
9/24/2021	The Many Saints of Newark					Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021	The Addams Family 2					United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021	Dune					Warner Bros. Pictures
10/8/2021	No Time to Die					MGM
10/15/2021	Halloween Kills					Universal Pictures
10/15/2021	The Last Duel					Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021	Last Night in Soho					Focus Features
10/22/2021	Ron’s Gone Wrong					Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021	Snake Eyes					Paramount Pictures
10/29/2021	Antlers					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/5/2021	Clifford the Big Red Dog					Paramount Pictures
11/5/2021	Eternals					Disney / Marvel Studios
11/11/2021	Ghostbusters: Afterlife					Sony Pictures / Columbia
11/19/2021	King Richard					Warner Bros. Pictures
11/19/2021	Mission: Impossible 7					Paramount Pictures
11/24/2021	Encanto					Walt Disney Pictures
12/3/2021	Nightmare Alley (Limited)					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/10/2021	American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story					Lionsgate
12/10/2021	Cyrano					United Artists Releasing
12/10/2021	West Side Story (2020)					Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/17/2021	Marvel Studios – Sony Untitled Spider-Man: Far From Home Sequel					Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios
12/17/2021	Untitled Disney Live Action					Walt Disney Pictures
12/22/2021	Untitled Matrix Sequel					Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2021	Sing 2					Universal Pictures
12/22/2021	The Nightingale					Sony Pictures / Columbia

As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving. Market projections are subject to breaking announcements at any moment.

This column will continue to track the impact of release date changes in the weeks ahead.

For press inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins

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