As the summer box office continues its progressive rebound in North America, fans of the Marvel Cinematic Universe are counting down the days until the franchise’s first theatrical release in two years arrives.
Historically, the online edition of this report has been published weekly and focused on forecast additions for films two months out from release. Given the unprecedented and uncertain nature of the industry for the past year, that hasn’t been quite as feasible for awhile — but, with all due cautious optimism, some normality is beginning to return with box office outlooks (albeit, with a healthy dose of volatility still in play).
The long-awaited restart of moviegoing is in progress as films like A Quiet Place Part II, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, and several others have met or exceeded expectations in recent months. Vaccines and the reopening of theaters in major markets have translated into drastically increased consumer sentiment since late last year, and although we aren’t at 100 percent right now, the trendline is moving in the right direction.
With that in mind, here’s our long range forecast for the 24th MCU film:
Black Widow
Opening Weekend Range: $65 – 90 million
Domestic Total Range: $155 – 225 million
PROS:
- From the box office to every corner of pop culture, Marvel is the current gold standard of franchise cinema. The absence of an MCU film for two years may have even generated more enthusiasm for the next chapter than already existed after “The Infinity Saga” came to a close in 2019 with the triumvirate of Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-Man: Far from Home.
At 24 months, this is the longest drought of the series — one month more than the gap between 2008’s The Incredible Hulk and 2010’s Iron Man 2.
- Ever since Natasha Romanoff (Scarlett Johansson) was introduced in the aforementioned 2010 Tony Stark-led sequel, fans have clamored for her character to receive her own solo film. That wish is finally being granted.
- Since the early months of the pandemic shutdown, we’ve long expected it would be the likes of a Marvel movie to bring back moviegoers en masse. That remains an industry-wide expectation given the communal and event nature of the franchise’s storytelling, which has generated in an incredible amount of goodwill from fans and casual viewers alike.
- That prediction is so far backed up by online trends. Black Widow‘s official Marvel Entertainment trailer page on YouTube has generated 14 million views from just the most recent spot released in early April 2021, in addition to the 29 million views of its first trailer released before lockdown on March 9, 2020. Social media engagement overall is trending on par with the likes of previous “solo” Marvel films like Doctor Strange, Thor: Ragnarok, and Ant-Man and the Wasp.
- While ticketing services haven’t officially commented yet, our internal modeling suggests pre-sales (which went live last week) are also highly indicative of the demand for a return to theaters. Black Widow is out-pacing all pandemic-era releases to-date, notably A Quiet Place Part II, F9, and Godzilla vs. Kong.
- The recent release of three very well-received MCU series (WandaVision, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, and Loki) on the Disney+ streaming service have further bolstered interest in where the franchise can go beyond the Infinity Saga, promising hints of new characters and storylines that are confirmed to tie-in directly with the studio’s feature films.
- This movie will have a firm grasp on IMAX and other premium large format screens during its opening week, and likely deep into July so long as it plays well. Based on initial reactions from early screenings, it doesn’t sound like that latter goal will be an issue.
CONS:
- This is the first Marvel Studios film to serve as a hybrid release, going day-and-date in theaters at the same time as it will be available to stream for a $30 fee to Disney+ subscribers. That element alone separates it from the usual forecast modeling of past Marvel pics. There is no clear answer, especially in this fast-evolving market, how many viewers outside the core fan base (that would otherwise see the film in theaters) will choose to watch this film at home. Notably, families with young kids may remain cautious in going back to cinemas just yet given the lack of vaccines for the youngest portion (under age 12) of Marvel’s target viewership.
- In addition to the continued caution of some moviegoers in the short term, seating capacities remain in place for many regions (as of mid-June), and uncertainty remains as to when the remaining theaters in North America (predominately in Canada) will be at full operations. The ceilings for box office potential and expectations simply aren’t as high for Widow as they would have been under normal circumstances.
- Is there such a thing as too much Marvel? So far, that hasn’t happened yet — even when the studio was pumping out three films per year in 2017, 2018, and 2019. This harkens back to the goodwill of the brand and its storytelling. However, more objective questions could be asked of demand to see a semi-prequel (taking place after 2016’s Captain America: Civil War) about a character whose fate is already known to most thanks to the events of Avengers: Endgame.
Bottom Line: The varying abilities of overseas countries to rebound and vaccinate likely informed Disney’s decision to go day-and-date with the film so as to not further delay their massive pipeline of MCU stories. While at-home viewership and an increased risk of piracy weigh on Black Widow‘s global prospects, this is still the kind of event tentpole with four-quadrant appeal that’s likely to attract more people back to theaters and set new pandemic era benchmarks at the domestic and international box office.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast Range | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 6/25/2021 | F9 | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $62,000,000 | $110,000,000 – $155,000,000 | 3,800 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 6/30/2021 | Zola | n/a | n/a | A24 | ||||
| 7/2/2021 | The Boss Baby: Family Business | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $115,000,000 | 3,400 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 7/2/2021 | The Forever Purge | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 | 3,200 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 7/9/2021 | Black Widow | $65,000,000 – $90,000,000 | $77,000,000 | $155,000,000 – $225,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | |||
| 7/16/2021 | Escape Room: Tournament of Champions | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Columbia | |||
| 7/16/2021 | The Night House | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||||
| 7/16/2021 | Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain | Focus Features | ||||||
| 7/16/2021 | Space Jam: A New Legacy | $15,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $100,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 7/23/2021 | The Comeback Trail | Cloudburst Entertainment | ||||||
| 7/23/2021 | Joe Bell | 750 | Roadside Attractions | |||||
| 7/23/2021 | Old | Universal Pictures | ||||||
| 7/23/2021 | Snake Eyes | Paramount Pictures | ||||||
| 7/30/2021 | The Green Knight | A24 | ||||||
| 7/30/2021 | Jungle Cruise | Walt Disney Pictures | ||||||
| 7/30/2021 | Stillwater | Focus Features | ||||||
| 8/6/2021 | The Suicide Squad | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 8/13/2021 | Don’t Breathe Sequel | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||||
| 8/13/2021 | Free Guy | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||||||
| 8/13/2021 | Respect | MGM / United Artists Releasing | ||||||
| 8/13/2021 | Untitled Russo Brothers Family Film | United Artists Releasing | ||||||
| 8/13/2021 | Untitled Blumhouse Project II (2021) | Universal Pictures | ||||||
| 8/20/2021 | Paw Patrol | Paramount Pictures | ||||||
| 8/20/2021 | The Protégé | Lionsgate | ||||||
| 8/20/2021 | Reminiscence | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 8/27/2021 | Candyman | Universal Pictures | ||||||
| 9/3/2021 | Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Disney / Marvel Studios | ||||||
| 9/10/2021 | The Card Counter | Focus Features | ||||||
| 9/10/2021 | Malignant | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 9/17/2021 | Blue Bayou | Focus Features | ||||||
| 9/17/2021 | Clifford the Big Red Dog | Paramount Pictures | ||||||
| 9/17/2021 | The Eyes of Tammy Faye | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||||
| 9/24/2021 | Dear Evan Hansen | Universal Pictures | ||||||
| 9/24/2021 | The Many Saints of Newark | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 9/24/2021 | Venom: Let There Be Carnage | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||||
| 10/1/2021 | The Addams Family 2 | United Artists Releasing | ||||||
| 10/1/2021 | Dune | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 10/1/2021 | Hotel Transylvania: Transformania | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||||
| 10/8/2021 | No Time to Die | MGM | ||||||
| 10/15/2021 | Halloween Kills | Universal Pictures | ||||||
| 10/15/2021 | The Last Duel | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||||||
| 10/22/2021 | Cry Macho | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 10/22/2021 | The French Dispatch | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||||
| 10/22/2021 | Jackass | Paramount Pictures | ||||||
| 10/22/2021 | Last Night in Soho | Focus Features | ||||||
| 10/22/2021 | Ron’s Gone Wrong | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||||||
| 10/29/2021 | Antlers | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||||
| 11/5/2021 | Eternals | Disney / Marvel Studios | ||||||
| 11/11/2021 | Ghostbusters: Afterlife | Sony Pictures / Columbia | ||||||
| 11/12/2021 | Belfast | Focus Features | ||||||
| 11/19/2021 | King Richard | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 11/19/2021 | Top Gun Maverick | Paramount Pictures | ||||||
| 11/24/2021 | Encanto | Walt Disney Pictures | ||||||
| 11/24/2021 | Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City | Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures | ||||||
| 12/3/2021 | Nightmare Alley (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||||
| 12/3/2021 | Wolf | Focus Features | ||||||
| 12/10/2021 | American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story | Lionsgate | ||||||
| 12/10/2021 | Cyrano | United Artists Releasing | ||||||
| 12/10/2021 | West Side Story (2020) | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||||||
| 12/17/2021 | Spider-Man: No Way Home | Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios | ||||||
| 12/22/2021 | Downton Abbey 2 | Focus Features | ||||||
| 12/22/2021 | A Journal for Jordan (Wide Expansion) | Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures | ||||||
| 12/22/2021 | The King’s Man | Disney / 20th Century Studios | ||||||
| 12/22/2021 | Untitled Matrix Sequel | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||||||
| 12/22/2021 | Sing 2 | Universal Pictures | ||||||
| 12/31/2021 | (no releases scheduled) |
For more information on detailed and pinpoint forecasts, contact us for pricing and availability.
As always, the news cycle is constantly evolving as the pandemic dictates. Projections are subject to change amid breaking announcements.
For press and media inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins
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