Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Tracking to Cast a Stellar Summer Start

Summer movie season begins as scheduled for the first time in three years with the highly anticipated release of Disney and Marvel Studios’ Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness on May 6.

For those not keeping track, the last “normal” beginning of summer movie season saw the all-time weekend record go down with the historic performance of Avengers: Endgame in 2019.

In 2020, virtually all movie theaters except many drive-ins and sporadic independent locations were shuttered due to the pandemic.

Last year, re-openings were nascent as vaccines slowly made an impact on social comfort, while studios continued bracing for more setbacks with staggered release plans for major films.

This year, the industry will be one step closer to normalcy as the heart of the year begins in early May as it traditionally has for the past two decades.

Analysis and preliminary ranges are below. As always, forecasts should continue to evolve leading up to release as more data points and clarity around audience reception will likely help clarify potential.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Disney / Marvel Studios
Friday, May 6

PROS:

• Anticipation is sky-high for the continuation of the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s dive into the multiverse, a major story arc of Phase 4 that was kickstarted by Endgame before becoming more prominent with Disney+’s Loki and the massive box office performance of Spider-Man: No Way Home.

• Given Benedict Cumberbatch / Doctor Strange’s heavy involvement in No Way Home, the episodic nature of the MCU is once again set up to draw intense interest from many fans, casual and die hard alike, as to where the multiverse story is going in this sequel.

• Cumberbatch has proven to be a very popular addition to the franchise ever since his solo debut scored an $85.1 million domestic debut in late 2016, which was the second best origin film opening of the entire franchise at the time (trailing only Iron Man‘s $98.6 million in 2008). Since then, the actor and Doctor Stephen Strange have been at the epicenter of pivotal story developments for several of the biggest blockbusters in history (Avengers: Infinity War, Endgame, and No Way Home).

• The inclusion of Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch in a major role provides further cause for fan enthusiasm given the wildly popular reception of Disney+’s WandaVision last year. Since then, her character has emerged as a favorite for many fans and should help increase this sequel’s appeal to female audiences of all ages.

• With more than a handful of comic book blockbusters now having been widely successful during the pandemic recovery period, there’s little doubt that they remain as popular and appealing as ever before.

• Early tracking models for Multiverse of Madness are comparable to Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Captain Marvel leading up to its pre-Endgame release in early 2019, while out-performing all other comic book-related titles since then outside of No Way Home. The Brie Larson-led origin story stands as the MCU’s second highest box office opener ($153.4 million) behind only Black Panther ($202 million).

• Pre-sales are in very early days, but the first 24 hours of availability met bullish expectations with a frenzy of activity driving higher trends than The Batman during its same first day window earlier this year. Still, comparisons are volatile until momentum can be measured in the days and weeks ahead. It’s important to note that Marvel films often have quite different pre-sale trajectories and front-loading impact from those of DC films.

• Competition will be light as studios have braced for another monster Marvel performance. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore will be entering its fourth weekend come Strange‘s release, while the next source of major competition won’t arrive until May 27 when Top Gun: Maverick drops for Memorial Day weekend. This should give Madness a three-week unchallenged run with premium screens and IMAX mostly to itself.

• With the return of director Sam Raimi, genre fans are enthusiastic about not just his return to the comic book realm following his highly influential Spider-Man movies in the 2000s, but also his penchant for horror as this is promised to be first the MCU film diving into that genre. With a script from the head writer of Loki, Michael Waldron, followers have plenty of confidence in the behind-the-screens talent developing this tentpole under the ever-reliable banner of and immense goodwill for Marvel and Kevin Feige..

CONS:

• Despite Cumberbatch / Strange’s presence in three consecutive, all-time record-breaking Marvel movies, it’s still been over five-and-a-half years since his own solo film. Typically, franchises outside the comic book flavor would lose some momentum in that amount of time between sequels, but it seems quite unlikely in this case given prior reasoning and the measurable activity already seen.

• As mentioned, this is the MCU’s first venture into a horror vibe. Experimentation has typically gone Marvel and the audience’s way in the past, but it’s at least worth considering the potential for this to end up a slightly more mature film than other all-audience friendly MCU chapters. (For example, the adult-focused, dramatic elements of Captain America: Civil War ultimately played a big role in that blockbuster’s shorter box office legs than its Avengers counterparts.)

• While the secrecy behind story points is often a strength that builds mystery around this and other franchises, it also provides a wild variable for forecasts. In this film’s case, should there be or not be any earth-shattering cameos or plot developments hidden from primary marketing, either scenario has a great impact on opening and finishing gross potential.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 4/7/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
4/13/2022	Father Stu	$3,000,000 – $7,000,000	-8%	$11,000,000 – $26,000,000	-8%	2,500	Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022	Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore	$48,000,000 – $58,000,000	+8%	$108,000,000 – $138,000,000	+5%	4,100	Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022	The Bad Guys	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$40,000,000 – $60,000,000			Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022	The Northman	$4,000,000 – $8,000,000		$10,000,000 – $20,000,000			Focus Features
4/22/2022	The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$16,000,000 – $36,000,000			Lionsgate
4/29/2022	Memory	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000		$5,000,000 – $15,000,000			Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022	Around the World in 80 Days					100	Viva Kids
5/6/2022	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$165,000,000 – $205,000,000	NEW	$400,000,000 – $535,000,000	NEW		Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022	Firestarter						Universal Pictures
5/20/2022	Downton Abbey: A New Era						Focus Features
5/20/2022	Men						A24
5/27/2022	Bob’s Burgers						Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022	Top Gun Maverick						Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022	Eiffel						Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2						Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022	Watcher						IFC Films
6/10/2022	Jurassic World: Dominion						Universal Pictures
6/17/2022	Lightyear						Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022	The Black Phone						Universal Pictures
6/24/2022	Elvis						Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022	Untitled Blumhouse Project						Universal Pictures
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru						Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder						Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Bed Rest						STXfilms
7/15/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris						Focus Features
7/15/2022	Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank						Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing						Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022	Nope						Universal Pictures
7/29/2022	Bullet Train						Sony Pictures
7/29/2022	DC League of Super-Pets						Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022	Venegance						Focus Features
8/5/2022	Easter Sunday						Universal Pictures
8/5/2022	Secret Headquarters						Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3						Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022	Untitled Searchlight						Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022	Man from Toronto						Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022	Beast						Universal Pictures
8/26/2022	The Bride						Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022	Fear						Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022	Samaritan						United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022	Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.						Focus Features
9/9/2022	Salem’s Lot						Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022	Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.						Lionsgate
9/16/2022	Distant						Universal Pictures
9/16/2022	The Woman King						Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling						Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022	Puss In Boots: The Last Wish						Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022	Untitled 20th Century 2022 3						Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022	Bros						Universal Pictures
10/7/2022	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)						Sony Pictures
10/14/2022	Halloween Ends						Universal Pictures
10/14/2022	White Bird: A Wonder Story						Lionsgate
10/21/2022	The Banshees of Inisherin						Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022	Black Adam						Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022	Ticket to Paradise						Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	Untitled Paramount						Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022	The Devil’s Light						Lionsgate
11/4/2022	Untitled David O. Russell						Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever						Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile						Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4						Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022	She Said						Universal Pictures
11/18/2022	Thirteen Lives						MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022	Creed III						MGM
11/23/2022	The Fabelmans						Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Strange World						Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022	Violent Night						Universal Pictures
12/9/2022	(no releases scheduled)
12/16/2022	Shazam! Fury of the Gods						Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022	Avatar 2						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022	I Wanna Dance With Somebody						Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022	Mario						Universal Pictures
12/23/2022	Untitled 20th Century 2022 6						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022	A Man Called Otto						Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022	(no releases scheduled)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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