Long Range Box Office Forecast: Memory and Updates on Key April Releases

This week’s update is on the shorter side as the long range report takes a look at the release of Memory on the final weekend of April, traditionally also known as the calm before the storm of summer movie season.

After two consecutive years without that early May blockbuster, though, the pandemic recovery era is in full force as a relatively normal summer movie calendar is set to begin in giant fashion with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness on May 6.

Before we get there, however, the business of April must play out. Below are this week’s key analysis points and updated forecast ranges.

PROS:

• Briarcliff Entertainment and Open Road Films have a long history with Liam Neeson-led thrillers, so there should be an element of consistency for tracking Memory ahead of its debut. The pic, co-starring Guy Pearce and Monica Bellucci while directed by Martin Campbell (Casino Royale), is being offered up as a male-driven counter-programmer after a fairly busy April slate before the Marvel mammoth arrives.

• Early reviews for Ambulance are registering fairly positive, so despite a minor decrease in its forecast this week, we’re expecting slightly longer legs to balance out surrounding market impact.

• Everything Everywhere All at Once scored a stellar platform debut last weekend that has increased expectations for another significant A24 hit when it goes nationwide. Its one-night IMAX play on March 30 drove reportedly healthy sales, and pre-release social trends are now matching those of some of the studio’s biggest past hits.

• Robert Eggers’ The Northman is now included in forecast ranges below, though trajectories remain fluid given its minimal marketing until recent days.

CONS:

• Memory, as alluded to, has the unfortunate fate of opening on what is classically a slow weekend at the box office. Following multiple high-profile titles from late March into mid-April, and with Marvel Studios’ eagerly awaited Doctor Strange sequel lurking in the shadows, Memory is likely to draw only the most loyal of Neeson fans as preliminary metrics compare slightly ahead of Blacklight.

• Although an original film whose marketing won’t fully kick in until Easter week, Father Stu looks to be in increasing need of a faith-based audience to help it stand out among the somewhat crowded mid-April slate.

• Forecasts remain in flux for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore as pre-sales have just begun and early screening reactions hit online fan circles.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/31/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
4/8/2022	Ambulance	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	-9%	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000		XX	Universal Pictures
4/8/2022	Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide)	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	+75%	$25,000,000 – $45,000,000	+75%	2,900	A24
4/8/2022	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	$45,000,000 – $60,000,000		$125,000,000 – $170,000,000		XX	Paramount Pictures
4/13/2022	Father Stu	$4,000,000 – $8,000,000	-14%	$15,000,000 – $30,000,000	-18%		Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022	Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore	$45,000,000 – $55,000,000	-9%	$100,000,000 – $130,000,000	-9%		Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022	The Bad Guys	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$40,000,000 – $60,000,000			Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022	The Northman	$4,000,000 – $8,000,000	NEW	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	NEW		Focus Features
4/22/2022	The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$16,000,000 – $36,000,000			Lionsgate
4/29/2022	Memory	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000	NEW	$5,000,000 – $15,000,000	NEW		Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022	Around the World in 80 Days					100	Viva Kids
5/6/2022	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness						Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022	Firestarter						Universal Pictures
5/20/2022	Downton Abbey: A New Era						Focus Features
5/20/2022	Men						A24
5/27/2022	Bob’s Burgers						Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022	Top Gun Maverick						Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022	Eiffel						Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2						Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022	Watcher						IFC Films
6/10/2022	Jurassic World: Dominion						Universal Pictures
6/17/2022	Lightyear						Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022	The Black Phone						Universal Pictures
6/24/2022	Elvis						Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022	Untitled Blumhouse Project						Universal Pictures
6/29/2022	Shotgun Wedding						Lionsgate
7/1/2022	Minions: The Rise of Gru						Universal Pictures
7/8/2022	Thor: Love and Thunder						Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022	Bed Rest						STXfilms
7/15/2022	Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris						Focus Features
7/15/2022	Where the Crawdads Sing						Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/22/2022	Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank						Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022	Nope						Universal Pictures
7/29/2022	Bullet Train						Sony Pictures
7/29/2022	DC League of Super-Pets						Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022	Venegance						Focus Features
8/5/2022	Easter Sunday						Universal Pictures
8/5/2022	Secret Headquarters						Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3						Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022	Untitled Searchlight						Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022	Man from Toronto						Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022	Beast						Universal Pictures
8/26/2022	The Bride						Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022	Fear						Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022	Samaritan						United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022	Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.						Focus Features
9/9/2022	Salem’s Lot						Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022	Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.						Lionsgate
9/16/2022	Distant						Universal Pictures
9/16/2022	The Woman King						Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling						Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022	Puss In Boots: The Last Wish						Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022	Untitled 20th Century 2022 3						Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022	Bros						Universal Pictures
10/7/2022	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)						Sony Pictures
10/14/2022	Halloween Ends						Universal Pictures
10/14/2022	White Bird: A Wonder Story						Lionsgate
10/21/2022	The Banshees of Inisherin						Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022	Black Adam						Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022	Ticket to Paradise						Universal Pictures
10/21/2022	Untitled Paramount						Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022	The Devil’s Light						Lionsgate
11/4/2022	Untitled David O. Russell						Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever						Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile						Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022	Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4						Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022	She Said						Universal Pictures
11/18/2022	Thirteen Lives						MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022	Creed III						MGM
11/23/2022	The Fabelmans						Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Strange World						Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022	Violent Night						Universal Pictures
12/9/2022	(no releases scheduled)
12/16/2022	Shazam! Fury of the Gods						Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022	Avatar 2						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022	I Wanna Dance With Somebody						Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022	Mario						Universal Pictures
12/23/2022	Untitled 20th Century 2022 6						Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022	A Man Called Otto						Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022	(no releases scheduled)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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