This week’s report briefly focuses on the final weekend of 2018, currently slated with one new release and one wide expansion — both of which go nationwide earlier in the week on Christmas Day (Tuesday, December 25).
Holmes & Watson
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
The reuniting of Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly (Talladega Nights, Step Brothers) should bring back a lot of their fans. As one of the few comedies in the market around this time of year, there should be enough room for this send-up of the classic property to succeed on some level. Our primary concern at this stage is the film’s lukewarm social media growth and the fact that family appeal probably won’t be as widespread as it was for Ferrell’s Daddy’s Home franchise.
Vice
Opening Weekend Range: n/a
We’re currently holding off on opening weekend tracking given the film’s planned staggered release from distributor Annapurna. That being said, the film and its first trailer have already sparked Oscar buzz thanks to an all-star ensemble led by Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Steve Carell, and Sam Rockwell. As director Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short, there’s reason to believe this could attract a similar audience as that 2015 award contender — although the more direct political aspects here might limit the interest of casual moviegoers compared to Short. Reviews and word of mouth will be key factors as forecasts evolve in the weeks ahead.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 11/9/2018 | The Girl in the Spider’s Web | $12,000,000 | -8% | $35,000,000 | -8% | 3,000 | Sony / Columbia |
| 11/9/2018 | Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch | $69,000,000 | $290,000,000 | 4,000 | Universal | ||
| 11/9/2018 | Overlord | $8,000,000 | -11% | $22,000,000 | -12% | 2,500 | Paramount |
| 11/16/2018 | Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald | $73,000,000 | -3% | $216,000,000 | -3% | 4,100 | Warner Bros. |
| 11/16/2018 | Instant Family | $18,000,000 | $100,000,000 | NEW | 3,000 | Paramount | |
| 11/16/2018 | Widows | $16,500,000 | $65,000,000 | 3,000 | Fox | ||
| 11/21/2018 | Creed II | $30,000,000 | 30% | $100,000,000 | 25% | MGM | |
| 11/21/2018 | Ralph Breaks the Internet | $50,000,000 | $200,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 11/21/2018 | Robin Hood | $10,000,000 | 5% | $30,000,000 | 15% | Lionsgate / Summit | |
| 11/21/2018 | Green Book (Wide Expansion) | n/a | n/a | Universal | |||
| 11/30/2018 | The Possession of Hannah Grace | n/a | n/a | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/7/2018 | The Silence | n/a | n/a | Global Road | |||
| 12/14/2018 | Mortal Engines | $16,000,000 | $55,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/14/2018 | The Mule | $14,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 12/14/2018 | Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse | $22,000,000 | $90,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/19/2018 | Mary Poppins Returns | $40,000,000 | $350,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 12/21/2018 | Aquaman | $45,000,000 | $175,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 12/21/2018 | Bumblebee | $20,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 12/21/2018 | Second Act | $7,000,000 | $40,000,000 | STX | |||
| 12/21/2018 | Untitled Deadpool Movie | n/a | n/a | Fox | |||
| 12/21/2018 | Welcome to Marwen | n/a | n/a | Universal | |||
| 12/25/2018 | Holmes & Watson | $17,000,000 | NEW | $85,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia | |
| 12/25/2018 | Vice (Wide) | n/a | $65,000,000 | NEW | Annapurna |
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