The final report of 2018 takes an early look at the weekend of February 22, 2019 — currently slated with three wide releases. We’ll offer up forecasts on the other two at a later date, but here’s our first analysis on the weekend’s marquee opener.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 50 million
PROS:
- The franchise has proven very successful with two critically and commercially successful chapters in 2010 and 2014, earning a combined $395 million domestically.
- Opening two weeks after The LEGO Movie 2 should provide just enough breathing room for this to open well along the lines of the studio’s own Kung Fu Panda 3 ($41.3 million in January 2016).
- The promise of a trilogy-capper helmed by returning director Dean DeBlois should bring back most fans of the series, especially the considerable adult segment of that audience.
- Early social media buzz is very encouraging.
CONS:
- If LEGO Movie 2‘s word of mouth proves comparable with its own direct predecessor, that may cut slightly into Dragon 3‘s potential.
- Similarly, Captain Marvel opens in Hidden World‘s third weekend and could leech some of the target younger audience.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 1/4/2019 | Escape Room | $13,000,000 | $32,000,000 | 2,700 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/11/2019 | A Dog’s Way Home | $12,000,000 | $40,000,000 | 2,900 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/11/2019 | Perfect Strangers | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Pantelion Films | ||
| 1/11/2019 | Replicas | n/a | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | ||
| 1/11/2019 | The Upside | $13,000,000 | $39,000,000 | 3,000 | STX | ||
| 1/18/2019 | Glass | $67,000,000 | $180,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 1/25/2019 | The Kid Who Would Be King | $15,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 1/25/2019 | Serenity (2019) | $10,000,000 | $30,000,000 | Aviron | |||
| 1/25/2019 | Untitled STX Action/Thriller | n/a | n/a | STX Entertainment | |||
| 2/1/2019 | Jacob’s Ladder | n/a | n/a | LD Entertainment | |||
| 2/1/2019 | Miss Bala | $10,000,000 | $28,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 2/8/2019 | Cold Pursuit | $13,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 2/8/2019 | The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | $60,000,000 | $213,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 2/8/2019 | The Prodigy | n/a | n/a | Orion Pictures | |||
| 2/8/2019 | What Men Want | $25,000,000 | $63,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 2/13/2019 | Isn’t It Romantic | $14,000,000 | $54,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 2/14/2019 | Alita: Battle Angel | $14,500,000 | $41,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 2/14/2019 | Fighting with My Family | n/a | n/a | MGM | |||
| 2/14/2019 | Happy Death Day 2U | $24,000,000 | $52,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/22/2019 | How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | $44,000,000 | NEW | $155,000,000 | NEW | Universal | |
| 2/22/2019 | Rhythm Section | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 2/22/2019 | The Turning | n/a | n/a | Universal / Amblin |
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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The post Long Range Tracking: ‘How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World’ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.
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