After a slow start to December that allowed holdovers to carry the market, theaters will welcome a handful of new releases and expansions this weekend.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million
PROS:
- Spider-Man remains one of the most reliable and popular comic book properties of all time.
- Wildly positive reviews (the film sits at 99 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently) are driving even more enthusiasm for this unique animated take on the franchise.
- As the first high-profile title to hit theaters since Thanksgiving, the combination of minimal competition and all-ages appeal should drive healthy family business. Awareness and interest have been increasingly positive.
- Some pre-release tracking metrics have approached the levels of Hotel Transylvania 3 and The LEGO Batman Movie.
CONS:
- Some immediacy is diminished by the fact that this is unrelated to Sony’s live-action Spidey films, part of the bigger Marvel Cinematic Universe, and represents the character’s fourth film to release in just over six years.
- With Christmas less than two weeks away, strong holding power in the weeks ahead is more likely than a big debut typically expected of superhero properties.
The Mule
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million
PROS:
- Clint Eastwood still carries significant pull with older audiences, and his first performance since 2011 should attract those fans with a film that seems squarely in his wheelhouse. The added star power of Bradley Cooper doesn’t hurt, either.
- There’s far less wide release competition for the age 50+ audience this holiday season than there is for younger crowds, giving this an opportunity to counter-program in a significant way.
CONS:
- Pre-release tracking has slightly outpaced that of Widows and 15:17 to Paris, although the road ahead is more encouraging with holiday crowds in play for the back half of the month.
Mortal Engines
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million
PROS:
- The source novels’ fan base will be the driving force here, while opening in premium screens this weekend will give it an added revenue boost.
- Marketing has played up producer Peter Jackson and director Christian Rivers’ Lord of the Rings connection.
CONS:
- Unfortunately, the young adult adaptation phase has simmered in a big way in recent years.
- Tracking metrics are only a few ticks ahead of last summer’s The Darkest Minds.
Other Notes
- Once Upon a Deadpool released in 1,566 locations on Wednesday, but expectations are modest for the unique re-release.
- The Favourite expands into limited release at an estimated 550 locations this weekend, making it a contender to reach the top ten.
Top 10 vs. Last Year
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten will earn approximately $105 million. That would mark a 61 percent decline from the same weekend last year when a small independent movie called Star Wars: The Last Jedi scored the second biggest (at the time) debut in history with a $220 million opening as part of an overall $267.2 million top ten market.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 16 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse | Sony / Columbia | $36,000,000 | $36,000,000 | NEW |
| The Mule | Warner Bros. | $17,000,000 | $17,000,000 | NEW |
| Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch | Universal | $10,900,000 | $238,800,000 | -28% |
| Ralph Breaks the Internet | Disney | $10,000,000 | $155,200,000 | -38% |
| Mortal Engines | Universal | $9,600,000 | $9,600,000 | NEW |
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
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The post Weekend Forecast: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,’ ‘The Mule,’ & ‘Mortal Engines’ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.
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