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Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Weekend Forecast: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,’ ‘The Mule,’ & ‘Mortal Engines’

After a slow start to December that allowed holdovers to carry the market, theaters will welcome a handful of new releases and expansions this weekend.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million

PROS:

  • Spider-Man remains one of the most reliable and popular comic book properties of all time.
  • Wildly positive reviews (the film sits at 99 percent on Rotten Tomatoes currently) are driving even more enthusiasm for this unique animated take on the franchise.
  • As the first high-profile title to hit theaters since Thanksgiving, the combination of minimal competition and all-ages appeal should drive healthy family business. Awareness and interest have been increasingly positive.
  • Some pre-release tracking metrics have approached the levels of Hotel Transylvania 3 and The LEGO Batman Movie.

CONS:

  • Some immediacy is diminished by the fact that this is unrelated to Sony’s live-action Spidey films, part of the bigger Marvel Cinematic Universe, and represents the character’s fourth film to release in just over six years.
  • With Christmas less than two weeks away, strong holding power in the weeks ahead is more likely than a big debut typically expected of superhero properties.

The Mule
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million

PROS:

  • Clint Eastwood still carries significant pull with older audiences, and his first performance since 2011 should attract those fans with a film that seems squarely in his wheelhouse. The added star power of Bradley Cooper doesn’t hurt, either.
  • There’s far less wide release competition for the age 50+ audience this holiday season than there is for younger crowds, giving this an opportunity to counter-program in a significant way.

CONS:

  • Pre-release tracking has slightly outpaced that of Widows and 15:17 to Paris, although the road ahead is more encouraging with holiday crowds in play for the back half of the month.

Mortal Engines
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million

PROS:

  • The source novels’ fan base will be the driving force here, while opening in premium screens this weekend will give it an added revenue boost.
  • Marketing has played up producer Peter Jackson and director Christian Rivers’ Lord of the Rings connection.

CONS:

  • Unfortunately, the young adult adaptation phase has simmered in a big way in recent years.
  • Tracking metrics are only a few ticks ahead of last summer’s The Darkest Minds.

Other Notes

  • Once Upon a Deadpool released in 1,566 locations on Wednesday, but expectations are modest for the unique re-release.
  • The Favourite expands into limited release at an estimated 550 locations this weekend, making it a contender to reach the top ten.

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten will earn approximately $105 million. That would mark a 61 percent decline from the same weekend last year when a small independent movie called Star Wars: The Last Jedi scored the second biggest (at the time) debut in history with a $220 million opening as part of an overall $267.2 million top ten market.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 16 % Change from Last Wknd
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Sony / Columbia $36,000,000 $36,000,000 NEW
The Mule Warner Bros. $17,000,000 $17,000,000 NEW
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch Universal $10,900,000 $238,800,000 -28%
Ralph Breaks the Internet Disney $10,000,000 $155,200,000 -38%
Mortal Engines Universal $9,600,000 $9,600,000 NEW

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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The post Weekend Forecast: ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,’ ‘The Mule,’ & ‘Mortal Engines’ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.



from BoxOffice Pro

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