Long Range Tracking: Breakthrough, Penguins, & The Curse of La Llorona

This week’s report takes a first look at a trio of releases slated to open in time for Easter weekend this April.

Breakthrough
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 20 million (3-Day)

PROS:

• Faith-based audiences that have driven recent successes in the genre — such as last year’s breakout I Can Only Imagine — are expected to turn out in healthy numbers.
• Star Chrissy Metz brings with her some of the fan base of This Is Us, which has become one of the most successful television dramas in recent years. Similarly, producer DeVon Franklin has plenty of experience delivering hit films for Christian audiences throughout his involvement with Miracles from Heaven and Heaven Is for Real.
• Opening on Wednesday ahead of Easter weekend should provide ample opportunity for the film to generate word of mouth among churchgoers leading into the holiday weekend.

CONS:

• I Can Only Imagine being an exception last spring, the faith-based genre hasn’t been churning out box office hits on quite the same level as it was in the early-to-mid 2010s.

Penguins
Opening Weekend Range: $4 – 8 million (3-Day)

PROS:

• Disneynature’s latest documentary timed for Earth Day (Monday, April 22) should appeal well to families and fans of the series.
• In general, Disneynature titles have proven fairly consistent at the box office across their seven previous entries dating back to 2009.

CONS:

• Although generally successful on their own terms, Disneynature titles haven’t exceeded the $20 million domestic mark since 2012’s Chimpanzee.

The Curse of La Llorona
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

PROS:

• Supernatural horror is hotter than ever at the box office, and early trailer reactions indicate this could be another micro-budget success for the genre. Advertised “from the producers of The Conjuring Universe” could boost interest.
• Opening over Easter weekend is an intriguing play at attracting viewers beyond Friday night. Latinx moviegoers will be of particular importance to the film’s potential.

CONS:

• If Pet Sematary breaks out two weeks earlier, it could soften demand for another horror entry.
• Reviews will be key to opening and long-term success given its proximity to the summer corridor.

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8-Week Tracking

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Release Tracking	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
3/1/2019	Greta	n/a		n/a		2,000	Focus Features
3/1/2019	Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral	$23,000,000		$58,000,000		2,350	Lionsgate
3/8/2019	Captain Marvel	$160,000,000		$450,000,000	2%	4,200	Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019	Five Feet Apart	$11,500,000	5%	$37,000,000			Lionsgate
3/15/2019	Wonder Park	$8,000,000		$30,000,000			Paramount
3/22/2019	The Informer	n/a		n/a			Aviron
3/22/2019	Us	$42,000,000		$135,000,000			Universal
3/29/2019	Dumbo (2019)	$55,000,000	-4%	$164,000,000	-4%		Disney
3/29/2019	Hotel Mumbai	n/a		n/a			Bleecker Street
3/29/2019	Unplanned	n/a		n/a			Pure Flix
4/5/2019	The Best of Enemies	$10,000,000		$30,000,000			STX
4/5/2019	Pet Sematary (2019)	$28,000,000		$65,000,000			Paramount
4/5/2019	Shazam!	$48,000,000		$144,000,000			Warner Bros.
4/12/2019	After (2019)	n/a		n/a			Aviron
4/12/2019	Hellboy (2019)	$22,000,000		$46,000,000			Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019	Little	$15,000,000		$43,000,000			Universal
4/12/2019	Missing Link	$10,000,000		$39,000,000			Annapurna Pictures
4/17/2019	Breakthrough	$15,000,000	NEW	$56,000,000	NEW		Fox
4/17/2019	Penguins	$4,500,000	NEW	$17,500,000	NEW		Disney / Disneynature
4/19/2019	The Curse of La Llorona	$20,000,000	NEW	$45,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros. (New Line)

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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The post Long Range Tracking: <em>Breakthrough</em>, <em>Penguins</em>, & <em>The Curse of La Llorona</em> appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

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