Long Range Tracking: Shazam!, Pet Sematary, & The Best of Enemies

This week’s report takes a first look at the beginning of Q2 2019 with the release of three studio titles on April 5.

Shazam!
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

• The promise of a coming-of-age entry in the DC film universe could provide a welcome change of pace for fans and general audiences alike, especially with initial comparisons to the modern classic Big. Appeal to teens could be particularly significant.
• Early social media buzz and trailer reactions have been very encouraging as the film a 77 percent interest score on Trailer Impact, not far behind the 83 percent of Aquaman nearly two months from its release.
• This film’s strong comedic approach could represent another fresh aspect to attract moviegoers looking for a pure dose of popcorn fun from the genre leading up to a “darker” Avengers: Endgame later in the month.

CONS:

• By and large, the character isn’t particularly well known outside of DC fans. That may not be a problem in the long run if reviews are strong, but it could translate to longer legs as opposed to big debut typical of many superhero films.
• Releasing one week after Dumbo, there may be competition for some of the family audience that often drives superhero titles. The aforementioned Avengers sequel opening three weeks later will represent a looming threat for that audience as well.

Pet Sematary
Opening Weekend Range: $20 – 30 million

PROS:

• As noted many times in recent years, the horror genre has never been more lucrative than it is with today’s audiences.
• The added fan base of Stephen King and fans of the original 1989 film and its sequel introduce an element of nostalgia that might benefit this remake’s opening.

CONS:

• Releasing two weeks after Us could prove challenging if Jordan Peele’s next film earns strong audience approval.

The Best of Enemies
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

PROS:

• Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell are widely respected actors whose fans may be intrigued by the chemistry the pair have on screen.
• The spring slate is largely devoid of adult-leaning dramas from major studios, leaving an open space for this to catch on if reception hits the mark.

CONS:

• Similar dramas like Marshall and Black or White weren’t able to catch on at the box office despite their important subject matter, leaving us on the cautious end of expectations for now.

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8-Week Tracking

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Release Tracking	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
2/13/2019	Happy Death Day 2U	$20,000,000		$52,000,000		3,000	Universal
2/13/2019	Isn’t It Romantic	$15,000,000		$57,000,000		3,300	Warner Bros.
2/14/2019	Alita: Battle Angel	$17,000,000	6%	$48,000,000	6%	3,700	Fox
2/22/2019	Fighting with My Family	$8,000,000		$25,000,000		2,200	MGM
2/22/2019	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	$49,000,000		$173,000,000		4,200	Universal
3/1/2019	Greta	n/a		n/a			Focus Features
3/1/2019	Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral	$27,000,000		$68,000,000			Lionsgate
3/8/2019	Captain Marvel	$160,000,000		$440,000,000			Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019	No Manches Frida 2	n/a		n/a			Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019	Five Feet Apart	$11,000,000		$37,000,000			Lionsgate
3/15/2019	Wonder Park	$8,000,000		$30,000,000			Paramount
3/22/2019	The Informer	n/a		n/a			Aviron
3/22/2019	Us	$42,000,000		$135,000,000			Universal
3/29/2019	Dumbo (2019)	$59,000,000		$175,000,000			Disney
3/29/2019	Hotel Mumbai	n/a		n/a			Bleecker Street
3/29/2019	Unplanned	n/a		n/a			Pure Flix
4/5/2019	The Best of Enemies	$10,000,000	NEW	$30,000,000	NEW		STX
4/5/2019	Pet Sematary (2019)	$28,000,000	NEW	$65,000,000	NEW		Paramount
4/5/2019	Shazam!	$45,000,000	NEW	$144,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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