Over a President’s Day weekend with three new wide releases on tap, Alita: Battle Angel handily stole the top spot from holdover The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, grossing an estimated $27.8 million over the three day weekend and a studio-projected $33 million over the four-day. Elsewhere, freshman rom-com Isn’t It Romantic boasted a healthy opening frame, while horror sequel Happy Death Day 2U suffered an unfortunate case of sequelitis as it grossed less than half what its predecessor did.
Originally announced way back in 2003 as a directing vehicle for James Cameron, Alita: Battle Angel finally fought its way to the screen with Cameron on board as a producer and Robert Rodriguez taking over directing duties. Despite bowing to mixed reviews, Cameron’s name clearly helped bump up the interest level among general audiences unfamiliar with the Japanese manga on which the film is based.
Additionally, the film’s marketing campaign, which emphasized its cutting-edge technological aspects (it was shot utilizing a mixture of live-action and CGI), seems to have further goosed excitement from fans. That helped boost the opening weekend numbers thanks to higher-priced premium formats like 3D and IMAX (the latter of which made up 15% of North American receipts). Also on the plus side, Alita is already performing far better than other similar recent sci-fi blockbusters like Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets ($17 million three-day opening, $41.1 million total) and Ghost in the Shell ($18.6 million opening, $40.5 million total).
All of that being said, Alita’s reported $170 million production budget presents a considerable hurdle for its long-term commercial prospects. Since opening on Wednesday, it has grossed a total of $41.7 million—a fantastic number for most other releases, but somewhat underwhelming for a film boasting such a gargantuan price tag. Unless it holds up extraordinarily well over the coming weeks, it will need to rely heavily on overseas grosses to make up for its performance domestically. The Avatar association certainly won’t hurt in that regard, but Alita also simply doesn’t hold the same kind of gravity as that film, which benefitted considerably from the sense that it represented something entirely new and groundbreaking in cinema. In short, Alita is going to need strong word-of-mouth to get where it needs to be in North America.
Dropping to second place following its disappointing opening last weekend was Warner Bros.’ The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, which held up reasonably well in its sophomore frame with an estimated $21.2 million over the three-day frame and a BoxOffice-projected $25.8 million over the four-day. That’s a drop of around 38% for the three-day period, which suggests word-of-mouth for the film has been reasonably strong despite those underwhelming opening numbers. Still, it has quite a bit of catching up to do; with a projected total of $67.2 million after eleven days, it’s currently running roughly 48% behind the pace of the first LEGO Movie and 31% behind the pace of The LEGO Batman Movie at the same point.
Debuting in third place was Warner Bros./New Line’s Isn’t It Romantic, which brought in an estimated $14.2 million over the three-day period and a BoxOffice-projected $16.6 million over the four-day. Since opening on Wednesday, that would give the Rebel Wilson rom-com $22.8 million since opening on Wednesday, a good result for a film budgeted at a reported $31 million. The positive result is partially the result of the savvy Valentine’s Day release date for the film, partially the result of its clever concept and marketing campaign, and partially the result of its better-than-average (for a rom-com) 68% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes. But it also attests to the drawing power of Wilson, who has now proven she can open a film on her name alone. While the actress co-starred in all three blockbuster Pitch Perfect movies, those were ensemble affairs whose success couldn’t necessarily be pegged to any one performer. Here, the case can clearly be made that Wilson’s starpower was a major draw.
Finishing in fourth place following its solid $18.2 million opening last weekend was Paramount’s What Men Want, which brought in an estimated $10.9 million over the three-day period and a projected $12.6 million over the four-day. That represents a decent 40% drop from its three-day opening frame and brings the Taraji P. Henson comedy to a healthy $37.8 million total through Monday.
Debuting in fifth was Happy Death Day 2U, the sequel to 2017’s Happy Death Day, which brought in an estimated $9.8 million over the three-day frame and a studio-projected $11.4 million over the four-day. That’s a sizable drop from the first film’s $26 million three-day opening, suggesting audiences weren’t nearly as amped for a second round as Universal and Blumhouse might have hoped. Conceivably, the horror follow-up may have also been hurt by the presence of Isn’t It Romantic in the marketplace. While the films exist in two entirely distinct genres, both hold strong appeal for young women, and it seems more of them were in the mood for a light rom-com than a horror film over the long weekend.
Still, 2U’s underperformance feels like a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly given the consistent strength of horror fare over the last several years and the fact that it followed up a well-liked title with a fun, easy-to-market premise. Additionally, reviews were about in line with those of the first movie (66% Fresh vs. 71% for Happy Death Day), while the Flixster Audience Scores are nearly identical (66% vs. 65%). One factor could conceivably have been the film’s inherently repetitive, Groundhog Day-style premise, with audiences deciding to opt for one of the weekend’s fresher newcomers instead.
Sixth place went to Cold Pursuit, the Liam Neeson actioner that debuted to a middling $11 million last weekend. With an estimated $6 million over the three-day frame and a studio-projected $7.05 million over the four-day, the film dropped roughly 46% from its previous three-day total, which is about in line with some of Neeson’s more recent thrillers. With a projected $22.1 million through Monday, the Lionsgate release is running slightly ahead of the 2015 Neeson vehicle Run All Night, which brought in almost exactly the same total over opening weekend and finished its North American run with $26.4 million.
In seventh, STX’s The Upside continued its fantastic run with an estimated $5.5 million over the three-day weekend and a studio-projected $6.7 million over the four-day, which would bring its grand total to an outstanding $95.3 million through Monday. The feel-good drama will soon cross the $100 million mark, becoming Hart’s fourth live-action starring vehicle to do so after Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($404.5 million total), Ride Along ($134.9 million), and Central Intelligence ($127.4 million).
Rounding out the Top 10, Glass brought in an estimated $3.9 million over the three-day and a studio-projected $4.6 million over the four-day for a total of $105.2 million after five weeks; The Prodigy grossed an estimated $3.1 million over the three-day and a BoxOffice-projected $3.7 million over the four-day for $11.6 million after 11 days of release; and Green Book clocked its fourteenth weekend in the Top 10 with an estimated $2.7 million over the three-day frame and a projected $3.2 million over the four-day. The leggy Universal drama, which is up for Best Picture at next Sunday’s Oscars, is projected to have a solid $66.2 million in the bank through Monday.
Limited Release:
MGM’s Fighting With My Family debuted to an estimated $131K over the three-day frame and a studio-projected $163K over the four-day, which would bring the well-reviewed Dwayne Johnson dramedy to a total of $198 million since opening mid-week. That would give the film a healthy per-screen average of roughly $32K over the FSS period and $40K over the FSSM frame.
Overseas Update:
Alita: Battle Angel grossed an estimated $56 million from 86 territories this weekend, bringing its international total to $94.3 million and its global cume to an estimated $130.8 million through Sunday. The film will face its biggest test overseas next weekend, when it opens in the all-important Chinese market on February 22.
Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World brought in an estimated $21.7 million in 49 territories this weekend, bringing its international total to a strong $172.5 million ahead of its North American release on Friday.
The post Studio Weekend Estimates: <em>Alita: Battle Angel</em> Fights Its Way to No. 1 w/ $27.8M 3-Day, $33M 4-Day; <em>Isn’t It Romantic</em> Swoons to $14.4M 3-Day, $16.6M 4-Day; <em>Happy Death Day 2U</em> Underperforms w/ $9.8M 3-Day, $11.4M 4-Day appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.
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