This week’s report takes a first look at the month of May, which may be a challenge for some films opening in the wake of Avengers: Endgame.
The Intruder
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 16 million
PROS:
- Counter-programming the big Marvel blockbuster with an urban thriller could be a smart play, especially with Sony’s past success in the genre.
CONS:
- Following the success of Breaking In and Don’t Breathe, audiences may draw comparisons between this film and those similar genre pics.
Long Shot
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million
PROS:
- Seth Rogen has a solid track record with comedies friendly to adult date night audiences, including Neighbors and Knocked Up.
- Early buzz around the film is encouraging, particularly the chemistry between Charlize Theron and Rogen.
CONS:
- Several films aiming to counter-program in May (such as The Hustle and Poms) will be targeting adult audiences and female viewers, creating potential for overlap.
Uglydolls
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million
PROS:
- This will provide an option for parents with young kids not old enough for the more mature content of Avengers: Endgame.
CONS:
- Aside from the Avengers shadow, the following week’s Detective Pikachu provides another significant source of competition for young audiences.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 3/15/2019 | Captive State | n/a | n/a | 2,200 | Universal | ||
| 3/15/2019 | Five Feet Apart | $12,000,000 | -8% | $36,000,000 | -8% | 2,600 | Lionsgate |
| 3/15/2019 | Wonder Park | $9,000,000 | $34,000,000 | 3,500 | Paramount | ||
| 3/22/2019 | Us | $44,000,000 | $135,000,000 | 3,500 | Universal | ||
| 3/29/2019 | Dumbo (2019) | $60,000,000 | 9% | $179,000,000 | 9% | – | Disney |
| 3/29/2019 | Hotel Mumbai | n/a | n/a | – | Bleecker Street | ||
| 3/29/2019 | Unplanned | $1,500,000 | NEW | $3,500,000 | NEW | – | Pure Flix |
| 4/5/2019 | The Best of Enemies | $10,000,000 | $30,000,000 | – | STX | ||
| 4/5/2019 | Pet Sematary (2019) | $28,000,000 | $65,000,000 | – | Paramount | ||
| 4/5/2019 | Shazam! | $48,000,000 | $144,000,000 | – | Warner Bros. | ||
| 4/12/2019 | After (2019) | n/a | n/a | – | Aviron | ||
| 4/12/2019 | Hellboy (2019) | $20,000,000 | -9% | $42,000,000 | -9% | – | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 4/12/2019 | Little | $15,000,000 | $43,000,000 | – | Universal | ||
| 4/12/2019 | Missing Link | $10,000,000 | $39,000,000 | – | Annapurna Pictures | ||
| 4/17/2019 | Breakthrough | $15,000,000 | $56,000,000 | – | Fox | ||
| 4/17/2019 | Penguins | $4,500,000 | $17,500,000 | – | Disney / Disneynature | ||
| 4/19/2019 | The Curse of La Llorona | $20,000,000 | $45,000,000 | – | Warner Bros. (New Line) | ||
| 4/26/2019 | Avengers: Endgame | $265,000,000 | $695,000,000 | – | Disney / Marvel | ||
| 5/3/2019 | The Intruder | $14,500,000 | NEW | $40,000,000 | NEW | – | Sony / Columbia |
| 5/3/2019 | Long Shot | $16,000,000 | NEW | $60,000,000 | NEW | – | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 5/3/2019 | Uglydolls | $8,000,000 | NEW | $27,000,000 | NEW | – | STX |
Alex Edghill contributed to this report
Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.
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The post Long Range Tracking: <em>The Intruder</em>, <em>Long Shot</em>, & <em>Uglydolls</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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