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Friday, September 13, 2019

Long Range Forecast: Doctor Sleep, Last Christmas, Midway, & Playing with Fire

This week’s report welcomes the addition of four new films slated to open Friday, November 8 as our preliminary look at the 2019 holiday season continues.

PROS:

  • Doctor Sleep boasts not only the pedigree of serving as the long-awaited sequel to horror classic The Shining, but star Ewan McGregor and director Mike Flanagan — the latter fresh off major success in the genre with Netflix’s The Haunting of Hill House. Early social and trailer trends are indicative of a potential box office hit should reviews and audience reception prove favorable.

  • Last Christmas will offer up a date night-friendly rom-com perfectly timed for the long holiday runway through November and December (perhaps not unlike 2003’s Love Actually). The first trailer was a hit with social media, director Paul Feig (Bridesmaids, A Simple Favor) is no stranger to crowd-pleasing box office success, and stars Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) and Henry Golding (Crazy Rich Asians) should attract their respective fans.

  • Adult males will be the target audience for Midway as Lionsgate positions the film in the same corridor they did for Hacksaw Ridge three years ago. With a star-driven ensemble, the film only needs healthy reviews and/or word of mouth to generate a respectable late fall run.

  • John Cena’s rise to comedic prowess in films like Blockers, Bumblebee, and Ferdinand is an advantage for Playing with Fire, particularly among family audiences who don’t have many alternative options in early November.

CONS:

  • Doctor Sleep‘s primary barrier to breakout status could be how reliant it is on younger audience familiarity with the source Stephen King novels and/or The Shining. That crowd has proven to be a big element in the breakout nature of recent horror hits.

  • Christmas-themed movies have historically been all over the map in terms of box office track records, as have rom-coms in recent years with very few examples of standout performances. Still, so far, Last Christmas looks like a solid candidate to be excluded from those trends.

  • Director Roland Emmerich’s most recent films (Independence Day: Resurgence and White House Down) were notable box office misfires, unfortunately. Midway isn’t quite as high profile of a release as those summer films were, so marketing and reception both will be crucial to the bottom line. Overseas performance may ultimately be its strong point, though.

  • Last year’s Instant Family aimed for a similar crowd as Playing with Fire and, despite strong reviews, wasn’t able to reach the breakout status Paramount had hoped for by moving its release date up to November. Comparable family-driven titles in past years have misfired or performed modestly, and contending with Frozen II in its third weekend won’t be an easy task.

Opening Weekend Ranges

  • Doctor Sleep ($20 – 30 million)
  • Last Christmas ($12 – 17 million)
  • Midway ($10 – 15 million)
  • Playing with Fire ($7 – 12 million)

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $58,500,000   3,400 Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $22,500,000 25% $50,000,000 25% 3,050 Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,000,000   $53,000,000   3,300 Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $22,500,000   $80,000,000   4,000 Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 $103,000,000   $210,000,000     Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $70,000,000     United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $27,000,000 -4% $85,000,000 -6%   Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,000,000   $29,000,000     Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000   $110,000,000     Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000     Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000     Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a   n/a     STX
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions
11/1/2019 Arctic Dogs   $7,000,000   $24,500,000 11%   Entertainment Studios
11/1/2019 Harriet   n/a NEW n/a NEW   Focus Features
11/1/2019 Motherless Brooklyn $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
11/1/2019 Terminator: Dark Fate $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000   $85,000,000     Paramount
11/8/2019 Doctor Sleep $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $25,000,000 NEW $92,000,000 NEW   Warner Bros.
11/8/2019 Last Christmas $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $15,000,000 NEW $80,000,000 NEW   Universal
11/8/2019 Midway $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000 NEW $47,000,000 NEW   Lionsgate
11/8/2019 Playing with Fire $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 NEW $33,000,000 NEW   Paramount

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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

The post Long Range Forecast: <em>Doctor Sleep</em>, <em>Last Christmas</em>, <em>Midway</em>, & <em>Playing with Fire</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.



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