This week’s report focuses on a trio of new releases slated to open the week before Thanksgiving in hopes of building momentum that should last through the heart of holiday movie season.
Frozen II
Opening Weekend Range: $115 – 145 million
PROS:
- The original film was an undisputed phenomenon, earning over $400 million domestically and $1.27 billion worldwide on the back of an enormously popular soundtrack and high repeat viewings. Frozen solidified the reemergence of Disney’s in-house animation studios as a top-tier powerhouse and remains the highest grossing original animated film of all time.
- Trailer reactions and social media metrics are strong once again for this sequel, earning trend comparisons to recent Disney/Pixar sequels like Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, and Toy Story 4.
- As the first tentpole animated release to open since July’s The Lion King, demand for a family-driven event should be very high by the time this opens in November.
- With a six-year gap between this sequel and its predecessor, there could be room for audience expansion to include kids who were too young (or not born yet) to see the first pic in theaters.
- After their unprecedented success across a variety of brands in recent years, the Disney name is virtually an automatic selling point for parents and kids once again. This franchise in particular proved to become a major source of merchandising success, which is often an indicator of sequel demand for kid-driven properties.
CONS:
- Animated sequels have generally trended downward from their predecessors’ box office runs recently, with notable examples including The LEGO Movie franchise, The Secret Life of Pets 2, and The Angry Birds Movie 2. That being said, Disney releases like The Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4, and Ralph Breaks the Internet have proven to be exceptions.
- The biggest X factor in determining how big this sequel could truly be is whether or not they capture lightning in a bottle again, particularly when it comes to the film’s new songs and the ability to generate as much audience retention in the weeks after release as the first film did. Considering the pop culture impact of “Let It Go” six years back, that’s a big ask.
- With a debut one week before a major holiday weekend in the U.S., some families could opt to wait and see the film until they’re on break from work and school — meaning any goal of achieving a record November opening weekend will be a challenge. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire owns that title with $158.1 million, while the highest opening animated title is 2004’s The Incredibles ($70.5 million).
- Long term, this sequel will face stiff competition for family audiences in Jumanji: The Next Level, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, and Spies In Disguise come December/early January. The original Frozen‘s primary source of competition in the same window was a less formidable combo of The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million
PROS:
- No one in the business has more goodwill for delivering heartfelt, crowd-pleasing, every-man performances than Tom Hanks. With him taking on the role of one of pop culture’s most celebrated and inspirational personalities (Fred Rogers), we’re high on the potential for appeal to a variety of audiences.
- As one of the most successful documentaries in recent memory, last year’s Won’t You Be My Neighbor? underscored the lasting impression of “Mister Rogers” on multiple generations and the desire for stories of kindness — one that should play very well during the holiday season.
CONS:
- Opening against Frozen II may soften upfront demand among female audiences, which we expect to be a significant part of this film’s draw in the long run.
21 Bridges
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million
PROS:
- Chadwick Boseman’s presence is a notable advantage coming off the massive success of his role as Black Panther in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
- As the counter-programmer among this weekend’s new releases, there could be some upside with targeting adult male viewers.
CONS:
- Competition from other male-driven pics in November — such as Terminator: Dark Fate and Ford v Ferrari — will present a challenge.
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 10/4/2019 | Joker | $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $101,000,000 | -2% | $210,000,000 | 4,000 | Warner Bros. | |
| 10/11/2019 | The Addams Family (2019) | $21,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $23,000,000 | 28% | $88,000,000 | 26% | 3,400 | United Artists Releasing |
| 10/11/2019 | The Current War (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 101 Studios | ||
| 10/11/2019 | Gemini Man | $26,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $28,000,000 | $85,000,000 | 3,400 | Paramount | ||
| 10/11/2019 | Jexi | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $7,500,000 | -6% | $20,000,000 | -20% | 2,500 | Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One |
| 10/18/2019 | Maleficent: Mistress of Evil | $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 | $40,000,000 | 8% | $120,000,000 | 9% | Disney | |
| 10/18/2019 | Zombieland 2: Double Tap | $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $77,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 10/25/2019 | Black and Blue | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $35,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | |||
| 10/25/2019 | Countdown | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | NEW | $33,000,000 | NEW | STX | |
| 10/25/2019 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Arctic Dogs | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $24,500,000 | Entertainment Studios | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Harriet | n/a | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Motherless Brooklyn | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | n/a | n/a | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Terminator: Dark Fate | $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | $85,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Doctor Sleep | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $92,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Last Christmas | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Midway | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $47,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Playing with Fire | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $33,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/15/2019 | All Rise | n/a | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | |||
| 11/15/2019 | Charlie’s Angels (2019) | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $29,000,000 | $78,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/15/2019 | The Good Liar | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | n/a | n/a | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/15/2019 | Ford v. Ferrari | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $115,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 11/22/2019 | 21 Bridges | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $10,000,000 | NEW | $34,000,000 | NEW | STX | |
| 11/22/2019 | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $19,000,000 | NEW | $105,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia | |
| 11/22/2019 | Frozen 2 | $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 | $125,000,000 | NEW | $455,000,000 | NEW | Disney |
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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report
The post Long Range Forecast: <em>Frozen II</em>, <em>A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood</em>, and <em>21 Bridges</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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