A global health crisis stemming from the spread of the novel Coronavirus COVID-19 is dominating headlines across the globe. Boxoffice Pro is tracking the latest updates on the theatrical market.
March 9 UPDATE
As of March 9, the impact of COVID-19 on the box office has been largely limited to China, Japan, South Korea, and Italy, four of the countries most affected by the health crisis to date. Theater closures and a steep downturn in admissions in those markets have already made a dent on 2020’s global box office outlook. China and South Korea, the world’s number two and five markets respectively, combined to represent 25 percent of the global box office in 2018. The downturn in those markets alone will likely stall further growth in APAC, international, and global figures in 2020.
In Italy, the country with the highest number of COVID-19 cases outside of China, regional quarantines have prompted theater closings in parts of the country. The Italian market posted a solid recovery in 2019 after a downturn in 2018, recording a 14.4 percent bump in box office and 13.6 percent increase in admissions. That momentum has stalled with a large-scale market disruption. The Hollywood titles most affected by the Italian closures to-date have been Bad Boys for Life ($1.5M through three weeks) and The Grudge ($59k, new release), neither of them established IPs in the country. Bad Boys II grossed $3.3 million in Italy in 2003 while the previous iteration of The Grudge opened to $2 million in 2004 and ended its theatrical run with $6.2 million.
Box office data in North America, however, remains relatively stable and mostly in line with existing projections. Universal’s The Invisible Man and Disney Pixar’s Onward both performed within the expected range of our original forecasts. The Invisible Man opened in the last weekend of February to $28.2 million domestically from a projected range of $25 to $30 million.
Despite coming from major studios, neither of the films are tied to an ongoing franchise that would provide a definite basis for comparison. 2020 domestic box office finished the weekend of March 8 1.9 percent ahead of 2019. That statistic is set to change in the coming days, but not because of the Coronavirus: March 9, 2019 saw Disney’s release of Captain Marvel, the first major blockbuster of what turned out to be a record-breaking year for the studio.
While it is logical to assume fears of the virus have influenced domestic attendance at some level in 2020, domestic box office figures to date haven’t significantly deviated from our projections. That isn’t to suggest the market will not be impacted in the future, simply that current data shows no direct impact to the moviegoing market.
The COVID-19 health crisis comes during a quiet period for Hollywood tentpoles, with few major worldwide day-date releases scheduled for the coming weeks. The most high-profile release delay so far has been James Bond title No Time to Die. The Bond franchise is in a unique position among Hollywood tentpoles, perhaps the single-most series dependant on a closely coordinated and carefully scheduled global marketing campaign. Such an effort is nearly impossible to execute properly in the immediate future. Hours after No Time to Die moved its U.S. release to November, Universal’s Trolls World Tour moved its release up a week to take up Bond’s April 10 slot.
This is an unprecedented situation on a global scale for the cinema market, with virtually no point of relevant comparison. The closest reference in our database is the 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” epidemic in Mexico that caused cinema closures and an overall downturn in attendance during the months of April and May.
The Mexican box office saw steep declines over a four week period during the height of the outbreak: April 24-26, May 8-10, May 15-17. Cinemas were closed and didn’t report any box office on the weekend of May 1-3. The only title affected was Universal’s Fast and Furious, already in the 4th week of its run when the box office was affected. Fast and Furious ended its run in Mexico with $13.2M, significantly ahead of its franchise predecessor Tokyo Drift ($5.3M, 2006) but well behind the following entry in the series, Fast Five ($25.9M, 2011). For context, the last Fast & Furious film in Mexico, Hobbs & Shaw, grossed $17.3M last year. A new entry, F9, is currently scheduled for release in May.
By year end, total admissions in Mexican cinemas were down 1.43 percent year over year despite the crisis, with admissions actually seeing a 1.2 percent bump when compared to 2007. The market rebounded in the summer months, as the rate of infections in the country dropped. Mexico went on to set a new box office record the following year.
There are numerous key factors that make this comparison imperfect, if not wholly irrelevant–particularly in the global nature of the spread of COVID-19. The comparison with Mexico’s H1N1 crisis merely points out the potential for any individual market to recover once the health crisis is under control.
Cinema chains around the world have already begun preparations to combat the virus at their locations. The National Association of Theatre Owners provided its members with resources on preparing for a flu pandemic in January.
On March 6, multinational exhibitor Cineworld, one of the largest circuits in North America, issued a statement addressing investor concerns around the impact of COVID-19 on its business:
Thus far, we have not observed any material impact on our movie theatre admissions due to COVID-19. Following an increase in admissions in the first two months of the year against the same period in the previous year, we continue to see good levels of admissions in all our territories, despite the reported spread of COVID-19. Although the release of the new Bond movie has been postponed to November 2020 largely due to closure of cinemas in the Asian markets, the studios have advised us that in the countries in which we operate, they currently remain committed to their release schedule for the coming months and remainder of the year.
There can be no certainty as to the future impact of COVID-19. We are however taking measures to ensure that we prepare our business for all possible eventualities. Should conditions relating to COVID-19 continue or worsen, we have measures at our disposal to reduce the impact on our business including, but not limited to, capex postponement and cost reduction.
As of today, the release calendar doesn’t show any other major changes stemming from the Bond delay. Regional cinema closures in the United States, due to inclement weather like winter storms or hurricanes, aren’t unusual and usually don’t prompt rescheduling by the studios.
This page will be refreshed with additional information as it becomes available.
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