It’s an unfortunate, but undeniable reality that we are living in unprecedented times right now. That’s a description being thrown around quite a bit these days, but an accurate one.
In recent days and weeks, COVID-19 has begun to show its clear and present impact on the upcoming domestic release slate. This follows measurable box office declines in territories like China, Italy, and South Korea, among others, due to theater closures and limited capacity enforcement.
As discussed in our weekend forecast earlier this week, in North America, the actual impact on box office attendance had remained negligible for the most part. Holdovers performed generally in line with expectations last weekend, although Onward slightly missed expectations in its debut. Initial day-to-day holds since then were also in line with past trends through Wednesday.
Since then, however, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic in official terms, numerous entertainment and sporting events have been cancelled or postponed indefinitely, and a ban on many incoming European travelers to the United States will take effect Friday night.
The good news for moviegoers: For now, theaters remain open nationwide, although New York is employing partial capacity requirements for venues and events of 500 people or less.
That latter development could become highly relevant in box office forecasts for the short term if and when more localized regions are forced into similar circumstances, but it is an unknown and speculative situation at this time.
For another silver lining, though, China may be in the process of readying its exhibition market to reopen in the coming weeks. While not confirmed, this is the kind of long-view positive note that will be important for us all to keep in mind.
Domestic Box Office Outlook
Following this week’s news, we’ve begun to see preliminary data points suggesting COVID-19’s imminent impact on domestic box office performance. Although not all studios and films have reported Thursday’s (March 12) results yet, a sample of 18 films that have been reported so far indicates an average drop of about 28 percent from Wednesday earnings.
It’s highly unusual for multiple, sharp Thursday drops without holiday considerations, premium screen losses to Thursday night openers, or major new releases in general. For example, the average Wednesday-to-Thursday decline of the top twenty films last Thursday, March 5 was just over 10 percent. On Thursday, March 12, high profile titles like The Way Back, Bad Boys for Life, and Birds of Prey slid between 25 and 32 percent from their prior Wednesday grosses.
(Of note, though, kid-driven films like Onward and Sonic the Hedgehog eased a less-alarming 15 percent and 13 percent, respectively.)
While we continue analyzing the data as it comes in day-to-day, this is likely the first verifiable sign of audiences in the U.S. taking heed of medical experts’ advice to practice social distancing in an effort to mitigate the spread of the virus as quickly and safely as possible. The question is whether or not Thursday’s developing data points will become a trend or prove to be just an initial reaction to the whirlwind of this week’s (especially Wednesday’s) news cycle. It’s an unknown element we simply cannot do more than speculate on at this time.
With that said, movies are a secondary concern right now, but forecasting models will be highly volatile for the foreseeable future and this will weekly report will continue in its best efforts to assess the current and upcoming market trends with all factors in mind.
Major Release Delays and Updates
Below is a list of major changes recently announced by various studios, including a number of key Spring 2020 titles that have been delayed to later and unknown dates.
Most of these were included in previous Long Range reports (excluding F9), and a couple of changes were previously reported last week, but this (and the updated forecast chart below) will offer a clearer view of how slim the early spring slate will now look as we all hope for this health crisis to be resolved in the near future.
- My Spy (originally dated March 13, now releasing April 17)
- A Quiet Place Part II (originally dated March 20, now unset)
- Mulan (originally dated March 27, now unset)
- The Lovebirds (originally dated April 3, now unset)
- New Mutants (originally dated April 3, now unset)
- Peter Rabbit 2 (originally dated April 3, now releasing August 7)
- No Time to Die (originally dated April 10, now releasing November 25)
- Antlers (originally dated April 17, now unset)
- Blue Story (originally dated April 17, now unset)
- Trolls: World Tour (originally dated April 17, now releasing April 10)
- F9 (originally dated May 22, now releasing April 2, 2021)
Needless to say, this list includes several heavy-hitters that will unavoidably leave an absence impossible to fill.
It’s also unknown at this time if anymore changes will occur — particularly ones whose release dates are still positioned in April. We will continue to monitor all updates as studios report them, and we’re confident moviegoers will be eager to support the delayed films in theaters when day-to-day life returns to normal.
For now, keeping in mind that theaters do remain open across most of the nation as of this writing and many will still seek out that necessary escapism, we’ll continue to forecast based on the most reasonable models possible in this day-to-day climate. This week, that includes the addition of Lionsgate’s Run to the report, which is slated to open over Mother’s Day weekend on May 8.
In the mean time, our thoughts, best wishes, and hopes for a speedy recovery go out to everyone affected by COVID-19.
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 4/10/2020 | Trolls: World Tour | $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 | $23,500,000 | $60,000,000 – $90,000,000 | $81,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 4/17/2020 | My Spy | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $21,000,000 | STX | ||
| 4/24/2020 | Antebellum | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $34,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 4/24/2020 | Bad Trip | n/a | n/a | United Artists Releasing | ||||
| 5/1/2020 | Black Widow | $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 | $115,000,000 | $220,000,000 – $320,000,000 | $306,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | ||
| 5/8/2020 | Run | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $10,000,000 | NEW | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $25,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate |
| 5/8/2020 | Run Sweetheart Run | n/a | n/a | OTL Releasing / BH Tilt / Universal |
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