This week’s long range report focuses on what will likely be the summer’s biggest animated tentpole: Pixar’s The Incredibles 2.
Writer/director Brad Bird returns with the long-awaited sequel, which has been among the most in demand by Pixar fans since the original film’s run in late 2004. That pic’s $70.5 million opening weekend and $261.4 million domestic haul were Pixar’s best and second best behind Finding Nemo, respectively, at the time.
The sequel’s trailers have picked up where the original’s goodwill left off, generating strong reactions across social media. In fact, Incredibles 2‘s social footprint thus far is trending ahead of that Monsters University and Finding Dory.
While the original film didn’t quite have the staying power of typical Pixar films over thirteen years ago, it was ahead of its time. Not only was it the first Pixar title to star human characters, it also opened before the box office boom of superhero films. That sub-genre has gone on to dominate the market over the past decade, spearheaded in recent years by Disney’s own Marvel universe. Pixar itself has since produced massively successful films led by human characters in the likes of Inside Out, Up, Brave, Coco, and Ratatouille.
The shift of this film’s focus to center around the family matriarch — Elastigirl (aka Helen Parr, voiced by Holly Hunter) — could serve to further strengthen the film’s appeal among mothers and daughters.
While there’s never a guarantee, this summer is fairly limited on animated titles boasting blockbuster potential. Only July’s Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation will provide direct competition in the medium, meaning Incredibles 2 has a wide open path to success if reviews and word of mouth deliver at typical Pixar standards.
Also opening on June 15 will be Warner Bros.’ Tag and Sony’s Superfly, but we’re withholding public forecasts for the latter at this time. Check our initial tracking for The Incredibles 2 and Tag in the table below.
Avengers: Infinity War Tracking Update
- Marvel’s ten-year culmination remains poised for a historic debut next week. The film’s Twitter footprint now more than doubles that of Avengers: Age of Ultron and remains ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Traditional tracking remains at a stellar pace thanks partly to awareness metrics in line with those of Black Panther and Last Jedi. Marketing has delivered the kind of “finale factor” hype only comparable to the biggest of past film franchise finales, increasing the possibility of reaching/breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ all-time opening weekend record.
At this time, Boxoffice’s official tracking for the next Marvel tentpole is:
Domestic Opening Weekend: $235 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $565 million – $650 million
Final forecasts to follow next week ahead of opening weekend.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 4/27/2018 | Avengers: Infinity War | $235,000,000 | $600,000,000 | 4,200 | Disney / Marvel | ||
| 5/4/2018 | Bad Samaritan | n/a | n/a | n/a | Electric Entertainment | ||
| 5/4/2018 | Overboard | $14,000,000 | $39,000,000 | 1,200 | Lionsgate / Pantelion | ||
| 5/4/2018 | Tully | n/a | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | ||
| 5/11/2018 | Breaking In | $13,000,000 | -7% | $34,800,000 | -7% | Universal | |
| 5/11/2018 | Life of the Party | $21,000,000 | $54,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 5/18/2018 | Book Club | $6,000,000 | $19,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 5/18/2018 | Deadpool 2 | $100,000,000 | $242,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 5/18/2018 | Show Dogs | $8,000,000 | $25,000,000 | Global Road Films | |||
| 5/25/2018 | Solo: A Star Wars Story | $150,000,000 | $390,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 6/1/2018 | Action Point | $17,000,000 | $42,500,000 | Paramount | |||
| 6/1/2018 | Adrift | $10,000,000 | $34,000,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 6/1/2018 | Upgrade | n/a | n/a | OTL Releasing / BH Tilt | |||
| 6/8/2018 | Hereditary | n/a | n/a | A24 | |||
| 6/8/2018 | Hotel Artemis | n/a | n/a | Global Road Films | |||
| 6/8/2018 | Ocean’s 8 | $42,000,000 | $145,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 6/15/2018 | The Incredibles 2 | $110,000,000 | NEW | $395,000,000 | NEW | Disney / Pixar | |
| 6/15/2018 | Superfly | n/a | NEW | n/a | NEW | Sony | |
| 6/15/2018 | Tag | $13,000,000 | NEW | $43,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. |
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