Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Underperforms with $83.3M 3-Day/$101M 4-Day; ‘Deadpool 2’ Takes 2nd with $42.7M 3-Day/$53.5M 4-Day

Solo: A Star Wars Story may be taking the top spot at the box office this weekend, but its estimated 3-day gross of $83.3 million (and a studio-projected 4-day gross of $101 million) is significantly below even the most conservative industry expectations. Not only is its Friday-Sunday take by far the lowest debut of any of the recent Star Wars installments released by Disney (the second lowest, Rogue One, brought in nearly double that amount with $155 million), it’s less than even the $108.4 million debut of 2005’s Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, which was released at a time when ticket prices were considerably lower.

While Solo‘s opening weekend numbers are certainly nothing to sniff at – it ranks as the fourth-highest opening weekend of 2018 after Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Deadpool 2 and the biggest Memorial Day weekend debut in four years – this is a clear disappointment for Disney, which has a lot riding on the franchise’s continued success. Mixed reviews may have been a factor in the lower-than-expected frame – the film’s Rotten Tomatoes average, while 71% “fresh,” is a significant drop from previous installments – but Star Wars and/or blockbuster fatigue could also be playing a role. It’s only been a few short months since The Last Jedi hit theaters, while Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 are still out and playing strong. Simply put, it’s a crowded field out there, and perhaps Solo wasn’t given a wide enough berth to perform as strongly as it otherwise might have.

Signs that Solo wouldn’t be performing as well as expected cropped up early on in the weekend. While its Thursday night preview gross of $14.1 million is the largest ever for a standard Friday opener over Memorial Day weekend, its Friday gross of $35.6 million (including Thursday previews) was somewhat less encouraging. While that’s the fourth best Friday in Memorial Day weekend history (behind X-Men: The Last Stand, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, and Fast & Furious 6), it was far lower than it would have needed to be to match even the most pessimistic predictions going into the weekend.

With a very good Cinemascore of A- and largely positive word of mouth on social media, it’s possible Solo could hold up well in the coming weeks and make up some ground. Nonetheless, this debut was surely low enough to make Disney reconsider its strategy with the franchise going forward, particularly when it comes to the spinoff films it has in development – namely, the forthcoming standalone installment centered on intergalactic bounty hunter Boba Fett.

Falling to second place in its sophomore frame, Deadpool 2 dipped a rather hefty 66 percent (Friday-to-Sunday) to $42.7 million, while Fox is projecting $53.5 million for the 4-day period. That would give the tongue-in-cheek sequel a very good $218.2 million after 11 days of release. The sequel is currently pacing about 9 percent behind the first Deadpool – which also enjoyed a holiday-weekend boost over President’s Day 2016 and dropped 57 percent in its sophomore frame – at the same point in its run. That said, the comparison isn’t entirely fair, as Deadpool was released in a far less-crowded marketplace, whereas Deadpool 2 has had to contend with likes of both Avengers: Infinity War and this weekend’s Solo.

Speaking of Infinity War, the MCU sequel is slated to place third in its fifth weekend with an estimated $16.5 million 3-day and a studio-projected $20.1 million 4-day, which would give the superhero epic an incredible $625.3 million through Monday. That will vault it into sixth place on the list of all-time domestic grossers, surpassing both Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($620.2 million) and the first Avengers ($623.4 million). It’s also now the second highest-grossing MCU entry of all time in North America behind only this year’s Black Panther ($698.6 million).

In fourth place is Paramount’s sleeper hit Book Club, which took in an estimated $9.4 million for the 3-day period and a studio-projected $12 million over the 4-day frame, representing a terrific drop of just 30 percent Friday-to-Sunday. Starring Jane Fonda, Mary Steenburgen, Candice Bergen, and Diane Keaton, the film has tapped into a hugely underserved audience of older women and has been a terrific counter-programming vehicle on the part of the studio. With strong midweek business last week and a fantastic second weekend, estimates have the film coming in at $34.2 million after 11 days of release.

Fifth place goes to Life of the Party, which brought in an estimated $5.1 million over the 3-day frame and a Box Office Pro-projected $6.8 million Friday-Monday. That would give the Melissa McCarthy comedy a so-so $40.8 million after three weeks, a result that represents a significant drop from her previous big-screen vehicles. In sixth, Universal’s Breaking In is estimated at $4.06 million FSS and a studio-projected $5.3 million FSSM for a total of $35.6 million after three weeks, while seventh should go to last weekend’s family-friendly newcomer Show Dogs, which is crumbling quickly with a second-weekend estimate of $3.07 million through Sunday (off 49 percent) and a studio-projected 4-day gross of $4.1 million. That would give the anthropomorphic comedy a disappointing $11.7 million through Monday.

Rounding out the Top 10, Overboard drops to eighth place with a gross of $3 million over the 3-day frame and a studio-projected $4 million Friday-Monday ($42.4 million total after four weeks), A Quiet Place is estimated at $2.2 million over the 3-day period and a studio-projected $2.7 million 4-day gross in ninth ($180.4 million total after eight weeks), and the surprise hit documentary RBG is looking at $1.12 million for the 3-day and a Box Office Pro-projected $1.5 million 4-day for a total of $6 million after four weeks of limited release.

Limited Release:

A24 expanded writer-director Paul Schrader’s First Reformed to 29 screens this weekend and took in an estimated $282,000 over the 3-day period $372,644 for the 4-day, for a healthy per-screen average of $9,742 and $12,850, respectively. If estimates hold, that would give the acclaimed thriller a total of $515,606 after two weeks of limited release, with further expansion to come.

Check here for an overseas update on Solo: A Star Wars Story.

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