As our preliminary look into 2020 continues, this week’s report offers up a first analysis of what to expect from Warner Bros.’ next big screen adaptation in the DC universe.
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million
PROS:
- Margot Robbie’s return to the role of Harley Quinn is far and away the biggest selling point of this spin-off after her widely praised turn as the character in 2016’s summer blockbuster, Suicide Squad.
- The DC franchise has seen a steady upswing in goodwill recently thanks to the critical and box office success of films like Joker, Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and Aquaman.
- This film’s mostly female ensemble could be very appealing to fans expressing their desire for more diverse offerings from the comic book cinematic realm.
CONS:
- Initial reactions to trailers have been mixed, based on social media metrics thus far. The film is generating a fair share of discussion among fan circles, but sentiment isn’t yet comparable with the likes of DC’s bigger hits.
- Aside from Harley Quinn herself, the film is packed with lesser known characters that may not be well known outside the DC fan base. Final marketing, reviews, and word of mouth will be crucial to building interest among the uninitiated.
- Other than Robbie herself, reception for Suicide Squad was largely mixed and could impact some of the non-fan interest going into this film — especially with possible confusion as to how this movie connects to the recent Joker (it doesn’t).
Upcoming Location Count Estimates
- Bombshell (n/a)
- Cats (3,200)
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (4,200)
- Little Women (3,200)
- Spies in Disguise (3,300)
- Uncut Gems (2,500 wide expansion)
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 12/20/2019 | Bombshell (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $35,000,000 | -13% | Lionsgate | |
| 12/20/2019 | Cats | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $12,000,000 | -14% | $50,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $59,000,000 | -14% | Universal |
| 12/20/2019 | Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $200,000,000 | $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 | $680,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | ||
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 | $23,000,000 | 15% | $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 | $115,000,000 | 15% | Sony / Columbia |
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $75,000,000 | -6% | Fox / Blue Sky | |
| 12/25/2019 | Uncut Gems (Wide) | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $5,000,000 | NEW | n/a | A24 | ||
| 1/3/2020 | The Grudge (2020) | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $32,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/10/2020 | 1917 (Wide) | $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $24,000,000 | 4% | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $94,000,000 | 4% | Universal / DreamWorks |
| 1/10/2020 | Just Mercy (Wide) | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $59,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Like a Boss | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $51,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 1/10/2020 | Underwater | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $18,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Bad Boys for Life | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 | $64,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Dolittle | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 | $145,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Gentlemen | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $38,000,000 | STX | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | Run | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Summit | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | The Turning | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/7/2020 | Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $49,000,000 | NEW | $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 | $125,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. |
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
The post Long Range Tracking: <em>Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)</em> appeared first on Boxoffice.
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