Long Range Tracking: Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)

As our preliminary look into 2020 continues, this week’s report offers up a first analysis of what to expect from Warner Bros.’ next big screen adaptation in the DC universe.

Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

• Margot Robbie’s return to the role of Harley Quinn is far and away the biggest selling point of this spin-off after her widely praised turn as the character in 2016’s summer blockbuster, Suicide Squad.
  
  
• The DC franchise has seen a steady upswing in goodwill recently thanks to the critical and box office success of films like Joker, Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and Aquaman.
  
  
• This film’s mostly female ensemble could be very appealing to fans expressing their desire for more diverse offerings from the comic book cinematic realm.

CONS:

• Initial reactions to trailers have been mixed, based on social media metrics thus far. The film is generating a fair share of discussion among fan circles, but sentiment isn’t yet comparable with the likes of DC’s bigger hits.
  
  
• Aside from Harley Quinn herself, the film is packed with lesser known characters that may not be well known outside the DC fan base. Final marketing, reviews, and word of mouth will be crucial to building interest among the uninitiated.
  
  
• Other than Robbie herself, reception for Suicide Squad was largely mixed and could impact some of the non-fan interest going into this film — especially with possible confusion as to how this movie connects to the recent Joker (it doesn’t).

Upcoming Location Count Estimates

• Bombshell (n/a)
• Cats (3,200)
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (4,200)
• Little Women (3,200)
• Spies in Disguise (3,300)
• Uncut Gems (2,500 wide expansion)

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Range	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Distributor
12/20/2019	Bombshell (Wide Expansion)	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$6,000,000		$30,000,000 – $45,000,000	$35,000,000	-13%	Lionsgate
12/20/2019	Cats	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$12,000,000	-14%	$50,000,000 – $100,000,000	$59,000,000	-14%	Universal
12/20/2019	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	$185,000,000 – $225,000,000	$200,000,000		$550,000,000 – $750,000,000	$680,000,000		Disney / Lucasfilm
12/25/2019	Little Women (2019)	$17,000,000 – $27,000,000	$23,000,000	15%	$90,000,000 – $130,000,000	$115,000,000	15%	Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019	Spies in Disguise	$13,000,000 – $23,000,000	$16,000,000		$60,000,000 – $100,000,000	$75,000,000	-6%	Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019	Uncut Gems (Wide)	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	$5,000,000	NEW		n/a		A24
1/3/2020	The Grudge (2020)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$14,000,000		$25,000,000 – $45,000,000	$32,000,000		Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020	1917 (Wide)	$20,000,000 – $25,000,000	$24,000,000	4%	$75,000,000 – $100,000,000	$94,000,000	4%	Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020	Just Mercy (Wide)	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	$14,000,000		$50,000,000 – $70,000,000	$59,000,000		Warner Bros.
1/10/2020	Like a Boss	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000	$17,000,000		$45,000,000 – $60,000,000	$51,000,000		Paramount
1/10/2020	Underwater	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$6,500,000		$12,000,000 – $25,000,000	$18,000,000		Fox
1/17/2020	Bad Boys for Life	$21,000,000 – $31,000,000	$25,000,000		$55,000,000 – $75,000,000	$64,000,000		Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020	Dolittle	$30,000,000 – $50,000,000	$40,000,000		$120,000,000 – $170,000,000	$145,000,000		Universal
1/24/2020	The Gentlemen	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000		$30,000,000 – $50,000,000	$38,000,000		STX
1/24/2020	The Last Full Measure		n/a			n/a		Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020	Run		n/a			n/a		Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020	The Turning	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$14,000,000		$25,000,000 – $40,000,000	$38,000,000		Universal
1/31/2020	Gretel and Hansel	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	$5,500,000		$10,000,000 – $20,000,000	$11,000,000		United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020	The Rhythm Section	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000	$12,000,000		$30,000,000 – $45,000,000	$38,000,000		Paramount
2/7/2020	Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn)	$40,000,000 – $60,000,000	$49,000,000	NEW	$100,000,000 – $150,000,000	$125,000,000	NEW	Warner Bros.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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