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Friday, January 25, 2019

Long Range Tracking: Jordan Peele’s Us

One of early 2019’s most buzzed-about new releases is the focus of our long range report this week, filmmaker Jordan Peele’s anticipated follow-up project to 2017’s Get Out.

Us
Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $55M

PROS:

  • Jordan Peele shot to immediate star director status with the wildly successful Get Out two years ago, which bowed to $33.4 million and legged out to $176 million domestically — earning praise from audiences, critics, and award guilds alike.
  • The first trailer has been strongly received since debuting at Christmas, earning more than 13 million views on the first day from Peele’s Twitter announcement post.
  • The studio’s decision to delay the film’s release until after a premiere at SXSW in March could serve to drum buzz up even higher.
  • Horror/thriller films have remained reliable box office draws in recent years, and this is undoubtedly the first “event” original film from the genre in 2019.
  • Our most recent Trailer Impact survey indicates 73 percent of surveyed audiences are interested in the film, a strong representation for a horror film two months out from release.
  • Still riding the momentum of Get Out and its cultural impact, Peele’s profile should help Us to effectively behave like a spiritual sequel to that film during opening weekend — especially given the studio’s strong early marketing push.

CONS:

  • Until reviews are available, it’s challenging to assess whether or not Us will have the kind of staying power Get Out and films like A Quiet Place enjoyed — partly due to the widespread interest in what Peele has in store for his second directorial effort and how the film will play for general audiences.
  • Pet Sematary will open during this film’s third weekend, which could siphon away some horror fans if that Stephen King remake builds significant buzz.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/1/2019 Miss Bala $7,500,000 -17% $21,000,000 -17% 2,000 Sony / Columbia
2/8/2019 Cold Pursuit $12,000,000 -8% $37,500,000 -6% 2,700 Lionsgate / Summit
2/8/2019 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $55,000,000 -7% $186,400,000 -7% 4,000 Warner Bros.
2/8/2019 The Prodigy $5,500,000 $12,000,000 1,500 Orion Pictures
2/8/2019 What Men Want $25,000,000 $63,000,000 3,000 Paramount
2/13/2019 Happy Death Day 2U $20,000,000 $52,000,000 Universal
2/13/2019 Isn’t It Romantic $15,000,000 7% $57,000,000 6% Warner Bros.
2/14/2019 Alita: Battle Angel $15,500,000 $44,000,000 Fox
2/14/2019 Fighting with My Family $8,000,000 $25,000,000 MGM
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $44,000,000 $155,000,000 Universal
2/22/2019 Rhythm Section $11,000,000 $33,000,000 Paramount
2/22/2019 The Turning n/a n/a Universal / Amblin
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $27,000,000 $68,000,000 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 $440,000,000 -5% Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019 No Manches Frida 2 n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $11,000,000 $37,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $8,000,000 $30,000,000 Paramount
3/22/2019 Greyhound $15,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/22/2019 The Informer $4,000,000 $9,600,000 Aviron
3/22/2019 Us $42,000,000 NEW $135,000,000 NEW Universal

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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The post Long Range Tracking: Jordan Peele’s Us appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.



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