One of early 2019’s most buzzed-about new releases is the focus of our long range report this week, filmmaker Jordan Peele’s anticipated follow-up project to 2017’s Get Out.
Us
Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $55M
PROS:
- Jordan Peele shot to immediate star director status with the wildly successful Get Out two years ago, which bowed to $33.4 million and legged out to $176 million domestically — earning praise from audiences, critics, and award guilds alike.
- The first trailer has been strongly received since debuting at Christmas, earning more than 13 million views on the first day from Peele’s Twitter announcement post.
- The studio’s decision to delay the film’s release until after a premiere at SXSW in March could serve to drum buzz up even higher.
- Horror/thriller films have remained reliable box office draws in recent years, and this is undoubtedly the first “event” original film from the genre in 2019.
- Our most recent Trailer Impact survey indicates 73 percent of surveyed audiences are interested in the film, a strong representation for a horror film two months out from release.
- Still riding the momentum of Get Out and its cultural impact, Peele’s profile should help Us to effectively behave like a spiritual sequel to that film during opening weekend — especially given the studio’s strong early marketing push.
CONS:
- Until reviews are available, it’s challenging to assess whether or not Us will have the kind of staying power Get Out and films like A Quiet Place enjoyed — partly due to the widespread interest in what Peele has in store for his second directorial effort and how the film will play for general audiences.
- Pet Sematary will open during this film’s third weekend, which could siphon away some horror fans if that Stephen King remake builds significant buzz.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 2/1/2019 | Miss Bala | $7,500,000 | -17% | $21,000,000 | -17% | 2,000 | Sony / Columbia |
| 2/8/2019 | Cold Pursuit | $12,000,000 | -8% | $37,500,000 | -6% | 2,700 | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 2/8/2019 | The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | $55,000,000 | -7% | $186,400,000 | -7% | 4,000 | Warner Bros. |
| 2/8/2019 | The Prodigy | $5,500,000 | $12,000,000 | 1,500 | Orion Pictures | ||
| 2/8/2019 | What Men Want | $25,000,000 | $63,000,000 | 3,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/13/2019 | Happy Death Day 2U | $20,000,000 | $52,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/13/2019 | Isn’t It Romantic | $15,000,000 | 7% | $57,000,000 | 6% | Warner Bros. | |
| 2/14/2019 | Alita: Battle Angel | $15,500,000 | $44,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 2/14/2019 | Fighting with My Family | $8,000,000 | $25,000,000 | MGM | |||
| 2/22/2019 | How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | $44,000,000 | $155,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/22/2019 | Rhythm Section | $11,000,000 | $33,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 2/22/2019 | The Turning | n/a | n/a | Universal / Amblin | |||
| 3/1/2019 | Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral | $27,000,000 | $68,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 3/8/2019 | Captain Marvel | $160,000,000 | $440,000,000 | -5% | Disney / Marvel | ||
| 3/15/2019 | No Manches Frida 2 | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Pantelion Films | |||
| 3/15/2019 | Five Feet Apart | $11,000,000 | $37,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 3/15/2019 | Wonder Park | $8,000,000 | $30,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 3/22/2019 | Greyhound | $15,000,000 | $55,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 3/22/2019 | The Informer | $4,000,000 | $9,600,000 | Aviron | |||
| 3/22/2019 | Us | $42,000,000 | NEW | $135,000,000 | NEW | Universal |
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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