Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Aquaman’ Cruises to No. 1 Again w/ $30.7M; ‘Escape Room’ ($18M) Slides into 2nd over ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ ($15.8M)

On a weekend with just one new wide release to speak of, Aquaman easily sailed into the No. 1 spot for a third weekend in a row with an estimated $30.7 million, while holdovers Mary Poppins Returns, Bumblebee, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse boasted strong legs elsewhere in the top five. Meanwhile, the year’s first new wide release, Sony’s Escape Room, exceeded expectations.

Having now surpassed The Dark Knight Rises as the highest-grossing DC film internationally (not adjusting for inflation), Aquaman held steady in North American theaters in its third weekend, raising its domestic cume to an impressive $259.7 million. The Jason Momoa blockbuster has now surpassed the lifetime domestic gross of 2017’s Justice League ($229 million), with the next DCEU title in its sights being 2013’s Man of Steel, which brought in $291 million in North America. With no major new titles to challenge its dominance until the January 18 release of Universal’s superhero thriller Glass, the Warner Bros. tentpole has relatively smooth sailing over the next couple of weeks.

Making a surprise showing in second place was Sony’s Escape Room, which debuted to a better-than-expected $18 million, continuing the trend of low-budget horror films outperforming forecasts. Indeed, last month’s The Possession of Hannah Grace (also released by Sony) opened to a better-than-expected $6.4 million (its domestic total now stands at $14.6 million), while the studio’s August release Slender Man also did better than predicted when it debuted to $11.3 million (and finished with $30.5 million domestically). Escape Room, budgeted at a reported $9 million, outperformed both of those titles, in part thanks to a lack of horror-movie competition in a frame dominated by feel-good holiday-season fare. Additionally, its PG-13 rating opened the film up to younger teens, allowing it access to a wider cross-section of moviegoers.

Slipping one spot to third place was Mary Poppins Returns with an estimated $15.8 million, a drop of 44% from last weekend. The Disney sequel now has $138.7 million in the bank since opening on December 19, a healthy total that nonetheless falls short of what many had predicted leading up to release. While the comparison is hardly fair, Returns has so far proven to be far more front-loaded than last holiday season’s surprise musical hit The Greatest Showman, which debuted on the same weekend in 2017 with just $8.8 million but (like Returns) actually gained the following weekend before dropping just 11% in its third weekend and posting sub-20% declines over the next several weeks. Luckily, competition for Returns doesn’t look too stiff over the coming weeks, though two heartwarming titles dropping next weekend – A Dog’s Way Home and The Upside – could potentially chip away at its audience.

Fourth place went to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which again showed off its sturdy legs by dipping just 30% from last weekend’s gross with an estimated $13 million. Though it dropped over 50% in its second weekend, the Sony animated superhero flick rebounded in its third weekend by rising 14% from its sophomore frame, and this weekend it continued to demonstrate the power of positive word-of-mouth. Its domestic total now stands at a healthy $133.8 million.

In fifth, Paramount’s Bumblebee brought in an estimated $12.7 million, a 39% drop from last weekend. While the Transformers prequel hasn’t reached the box office heights of the first few films in the series, it has benefitted from stronger legs than a number of its franchise predecessors thanks to positive word-of-mouth; indeed, the film’s Cinemascore is a strong “A-” while its 79% Flixster Audience Score is the second-highest of the series after the first Transformers (85%). With $97.1 million in North America so far, look for the film to surpass $100 million sometime this week, and potentially top the $130 million domestic total of the last film in the series, 2017’s The Last Knight, by the end of its run.

Sixth place went to Warner Bros.’ The Mule, which like many holiday-season holdovers has proven to be a strong repeat performer. This weekend, the latest from Clint Eastwood brought in an estimated $9 million, bringing its domestic total to $81.1 million since opening on December 14. Not adjusting for inflation, it’s now Eastwood’s seventh highest-grossing film as an actor and eight-highest as a director. Budgeted at a reported $50 million, the film could well find its way past the $100 million mark domestically at its current pace.

Finishing in seventh place was Annapurna’s Vice, which held up well with an estimated $5.8 million in its second weekend of release. The Dick Cheney biopic is up for a whopping six Golden Globes at tonight’s ceremony, including Best Picture – Musical or Comedy and Best Actor – Musical or Comedy for star Christian Bale. Though it dropped just 25% from last weekend’s gross – giving it $29.7 million since opening on Christmas Day – the film’s reported $60 million budget is a steep hill to climb.

Dipping 33% in eighth place was Second Act, the Jennifer Lopez comedy that brought in an estimated $4.9 million this weekend, good for a $32.9 million total in North America. With a reported budget of $16 million, the STX release has proven to be a reasonably strong counter-programmer to the season’s flashier releases, and it will soon surpass the $35.4 million total of Lopez’s last wide-release starring vehicle, 2015 domestic thriller The Boy Next Door.

In ninth place, Ralph Breaks the Internet continued its strong run with an estimated $4.7 million, good for a total of $187.2 million so far. The animated comedy will soon surpass the $189.4 million domestic tally of the first Wreck-It Ralph.

Rounding out the Top 10 was Holmes & Watson, which brought in an estimated $3.4 million, giving it a total of $28.4 million since opening on Christmas Day. The Will Ferrell-John C. Reilly comedy has been spiraling quickly down the charts and will certainly be remembered as one of the more disappointing box office performers of the holiday season.

Limited Release:

Annapurna’s If Beale Street Could Talk expanded to 335 locations this weekend and brought in an estimated $1.8 million, good for a per-screen average of $5,521. Nominated for three Golden Globes and tipped for nods in several Oscar categories, the critically-acclaimed drama from Moonlight director Barry Jenkins is looking to expand further next weekend. Its domestic total now stands at $4.4 million.

Also expanding this weekend was Focus Features’ On the Basis of Sex, which made its way into 113 theaters and brought in an estimated $1.6 million. That’s a decent per-screen average of $14,920 for the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic, which now has $3.7 million since opening on Christmas Day. The film is set to expand further in the coming weeks.

Overseas Update:

Aquaman brought in an estimated $56.2 million overseas this weekend, bringing its international total to $681 million and its worldwide tally to a massive $940.7 million. The DCEU entry is now Warner Bros.’ highest-grossing release ever in Asia, with totals including $282.8 million in China and $35.3 million in Korea. Look for the blockbuster to cross the $1 billion mark worldwide next weekend.

Mary Poppins Returns crossed the $250 million global threshold after grossing an estimated $23 million overseas this weekend. The musical sequel has an international cume of $119.7 million and a global total of $257.9 million.

Ralph Breaks the Internet crossed the $400 million global mark with an estimated $25 million overseas this weekend, bringing its international total to $217.6 million and its worldwide cume to $404.8 million.

Bumblebee powered its way to $82.7 million in 63 markets this weekend, making it the No. 1 film internationally thanks in large part to a $59.4 million opening in China. The film’s overseas total is now $192 million, while its worldwide cume is $289.1 million.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World got a near two-month jump on its North American release in Australia and New Zealand over the weekend, where it brought in an estimated $5.3 million. The film opens in several other overseas markets next weekend ahead of its Feb. 22 release in North America.

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Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, JAN. 4 – SUN, JAN. 6

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Aquaman	$30,700,000	-41%	4,184	59	$7,337	$259,720,880	4	Warner Bros.
2	Escape Room	$18,000,000	—	2,717	—	$6,625	$18,000,000	1	Sony Pictures
3	Mary Poppins Returns	$15,773,000	-44%	4,090	0	$3,856	$138,729,305	3	Disney
4	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	$13,010,000	-31%	3,419	-394	$3,805	$133,861,346	4	Sony / Columbia
5	Bumblebee	$12,775,000	-39%	3,597	47	$3,552	$97,128,140	3	Paramount Pictures
6	The Mule	$9,040,000	-26%	3,212	425	$2,814	$81,108,110	4	Warner Bros.
7	Vice	$5,803,490	-25%	2,534	92	$2,290	$29,796,478	2	Annapurna
8	Second Act	$4,910,000	-33%	2,523	-84	$1,946	$32,947,075	4	STX Entertainment
9	Ralph Breaks the Internet	$4,685,000	-30%	2,050	-293	$2,285	$187,164,171	7	Disney
10	Holmes and Watson	$3,400,000	-54%	2,780	4	$1,223	$28,410,922	3	Sony Pictures
11	Bohemian Rhapsody	$2,400,000	2%	1,080	199	$2,222	$193,676,825	10	20th Century Fox
12	Mary Queen of Scots	$2,204,000	-18%	1,052	211	$2,095	$13,482,025	5	Focus Features
13	Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch	$1,159,000	-72%	1,622	-933	$715	$269,612,735	9	Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	The Favourite	$1,975,000	-19%	771	-39	$2,562	$19,369,336	7	Fox Searchlight
2	If Beale Street Could Talk	$1,849,429	141%	335	270	$5,521	$4,415,293	4	Annapurna
3	Green Book	$1,829,000	-3%	566	-55	$3,231	$35,252,256	8	Universal Pictures
4	On The Basis Of Sex	$1,671,000	143%	112	79	$14,920	$3,769,395	2	Focus Features
5	Simmba	$1,005,087	-43%	292	-9	$3,442	$4,115,808	2	Reliance Entertainment
6	Creed II	$973,111	-39%	893	-175	$1,090	$114,347,063	7	MGM / Warner Bros
7	Instant Family	$710,000	-26%	604	-140	$1,175	$66,220,028	8	Paramount Pictures
8	Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald	$650,000	-34%	401	-114	$1,621	$158,058,573	8	Warner Bros.
9	A Star is Born	$635,000	29%	268	32	$2,369	$202,110,867	14	Warner Bros.
10	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms	$89,000	-50%	172	-46	$517	$54,783,921	10	Walt Disney Pictures
11	Robin Hood	$75,000	-33%	139	-50	$540	$30,798,508	7	Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Free Solo	$114,900	0%	54	-5	$2,128	$11,441,601	15	National Geographic Entertainment
2	Destroyer	$110,012	99%	6	3	$18,335	$259,798	2	Annapurna Pictures
3	Stan & Ollie	$96,173	23%	8	3	$12,022	$243,159	2	Sony Pictures Classics
4	Cold War	$93,000	110%	6	3	$15,500	$274,355	3	Amazon Studios
5	At Eternity’s Gate	$61,000	-19%	49	-1	$1,245	$1,967,031	8	CBS Films
6	Capernaum	$33,762	14%	10	1	$3,376	$173,206	4	Sony Pictures Classics
7	The World Before Your Feet	$18,300	40%	10	2	$1,830	$138,448	7	Greenwich Entertainment
8	Vox Lux	$11,023	-49%	25	-10	$441	$727,416	5	Neon
9	Border	$2,988	-56%	5	-3	$598	$771,205	11	Neon

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