Studio MLK Weekend Estimates: ‘Glass’ Cracks $40.5M 3-Day/$47M 4-Day; ‘The Upside’ Shows Its Legs w/ $15.6M/$19.5M

Debuting on a holiday weekend with no other major new releases in the marketplace, Glass had a pretty good 3-day opening of $40.5 million and a projected 4-day gross of $47 million, making it the third-highest opener in MLK weekend history, behind only American Sniper ($89.2/$107.2 million) and Ride Along ($41.5/$48.6 million). Meanwhile, The Upside and A Dog’s Way Home showed their legs in their sophomore frames, anime import Dragon Ball Super: Broly made a surprising showing, and Aquaman crossed the $300 million threshold in its fifth weekend of release.

While some early forecasts had Glass debuting with up to $80 million in its opening weekend, less-than-stellar reviews for the third film in M. Night Shyamalan’s superhero trilogy (after Unbreakable and Split) brought the Universal release back down to Earth. When looked at in context of those sky-high early predictions, this weekend’s opening could be viewed as a disappointment. Nonetheless, early expectations were so high that what the film ultimately landed at is still a pretty impressive number, particularly considering its relatively-frugal $20 million budget. Indeed, the continuing cult appeal of Unbreakable (whose reputation has arguably grown among fans since its 2000 release) and the surprise success of the well-liked Split ($40 million opening) two years ago gave Glass a huge amount of momentum leading up to release, and its lack of direct competition (aside from the still-strong holdover Aquaman) were enough to power it to a good, if not eye-popping, opening. It also benefitted from being the first blockbuster franchise release of 2019 in a field still mainly consisting of holdovers from the holiday season.

Whether Glass can continue the momentum beyond opening weekend is an open question. Reviews were by far the worst of the trilogy (it’s currently at 35% on Rotten Tomatoes), and that appears to have been a factor in lowering its appeal among the more-discerning over-25 crowd, which represents a more significant portion of Glass‘ audience than for a typical genre release. Its performance going forward will depend strongly on word-of-mouth, and that could conceivably go either way. On the plus side, the film has little in the way of direct competition over the next couple of weeks. Additionally, its Flixster Audience Score is an encouraging 78%, almost exactly in line with the 79% rating for Split, which dipped just 35% in its sophomore frame. As the Sony superhero blockbuster Venom (29% Rotten Tomatoes critic rating, 84% Audience Score) quite ably demonstrated last year, audience tastes don’t always align with those of critics. If that division holds here, Glass could conceivably end up earning well north of $100 million by the end of its run.

Bringing in an estimated $15.6 million in second place (and a studio-projected $19.5 million over the four-day frame) was last weekend’s surprisingly-robust newcomer The Upside, which eased just 23% from its $20.3 million debut. Its total through Monday is projected at $47.8 million – an excellent total made possible by strong word-of-mouth and little direct competition. Notably, the Kevin Hart-Bryan Cranston dramedy boasts a strong “A” Cinemascore and an 88% Audience Score on Flixster, which suggests moviegoers paid little attention to its lukewarm critical reception (its Rotten Tomatoes rating sits at just 40%). Of course, that’s typical for a Kevin Hart vehicle, as few of his hits have been particularly well-received by critics.

Making a surprise appearance in third place was FUNimation Films’ animated global hit Dragon Ball Super: Broly, which – after bringing in a combined $10.4 million last Wednesday and Thursday – grossed an estimated $10.6 million over the three-day weekend (and a BoxOffice-projected $13.1 million four-day) from just 467 screens. That would give the film a $23.5 million total through Monday, an impressive result for a film essentially playing in limited release. Notably, the martial arts actioner has the highest per-screen average of the Top 10 by far, with $22,821 F-S-S and a projected $28,000 over the four-day frame.

Dipping two spots to fourth place was Warner Bros.’ Aquaman, which brought in an estimated $10.3 million (and a BoxOffice-projected $12.8 million over the four-day period). That’s a drop of just 40% from the last F-S-S period despite more robust-than-usual competition from Glass. Including Monday projections, the DC superhero blockbuster now has $306.8 million in the bank, making it the fourth DCEU film to cross the $300 million mark after Wonder Woman, Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, and Suicide Squad.  It now also ranks as the sixth highest-grossing release of 2018 just behind Deadpool 2 ($318.4 million, or $324.5 million if you count grosses from the PG-13 re-release of the film under the title Once Upon a Deadpool back in December).

The holiday season’s other leggy superhero title, Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, dropped into fifth place with an estimated $7.2 million (and a studio-projected $9.1 million over the four-day frame), a dip of just 20% from last weekend’s gross. The sturdy animated feature has brought in a superb $160.1 million through Monday.

In sixth place, A Dog’s Way Home eased 36% to an estimated $7.1 million in its sophomore frame (and a studio-projected $9.5 million four-day), which would give the Sony title $23.6 million through Monday. That’s a pretty good hold for the PG release, though not quite as strong as many had predicted going into the weekend.

Seventh place went to Sony’s Escape Room, which brought in an estimated $5.27 million in weekend number three (and a studio-projected $6.15 million four-day gross), giving the surprise-hit horror-thriller a healthy $41.5 million through Monday.

Finishing just a hair lower was Disney’s Mary Poppins Returns, took eighth place with an estimated $5.24 million in its fifth weekend of release (and a studio-projected $6.72 million four-day), good for a total of $158.7 million.

In ninth, Paramount’s Bumblebee grossed an estimated $4.6 million (and a studio-projected $5.6 million four-day) for a total of $116.9 million through Monday; and in tenth place, Focus Features’ On the Basis of Sex brought in an estimated $3.9 million (and a BoxOffice-projected $4.9 million four-day) for a $17.8 million total through Monday.

Overseas Update:

Glass was the No. 1 movie in the world this weekend, bringing in an estimated $48.5 million in overseas markets and an estimated $89.1 million globally through Sunday.

Aquaman brought in an estimated $14.3 million in 79 overseas markets this weekend, bringing its overseas total to $759.1 million and its global cume to $1.06 billion.

With an estimated $20.9 million overseas this weekend, Bumblebee has now surpassed the $400 million global mark. The Paramount release now has $296.4 million internationally and a global tally of $412.3 million.

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Studio 3-Day Weekend Estimates (Domestic)

FRI, JAN. 18 – SUN, JAN. 20

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Glass	$40,590,000	—	3,841	—	$10,568	$40,590,000	1	Universal
2	The Upside	$15,670,000	-23%	3,320	240	$4,720	$43,983,439	2	STX Entertainment
3	Aquaman	$10,330,000	-40%	3,475	-388	$2,973	$304,336,848	6	Warner Bros.
4	Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	$7,255,000	-20%	2,712	-317	$2,675	$158,256,385	6	Sony / Columbia
5	A Dog’s Way Home	$7,110,000	-37%	3,090	0	$2,301	$21,278,496	2	Sony Pictures
6	Escape Room	$5,275,000	-41%	2,709	-8	$1,947	$40,700,948	3	Sony Pictures
7	Mary Poppins Returns	$5,244,000	-31%	2,810	-443	$1,866	$158,731,814	5	Disney
8	Bumblebee	$4,660,000	-35%	2,711	-592	$1,719	$115,943,676	5	Paramount Pictures
9	On The Basis Of Sex	$3,965,000	-35%	1,957	34	$2,026	$16,876,747	4	Focus Features
10	The Mule	$3,505,000	-38%	2,688	-641	$1,304	$96,929,689	6	Warner Bros.
11	Bohemian Rhapsody	$2,650,000	-17%	1,177	-157	$2,251	$202,382,484	12	20th Century Fox
12	Ralph Breaks the Internet	$2,158,000	-4%	1,936	382	$1,115	$193,217,032	9	Disney
13	Vice	$1,863,871	-42%	1,175	-549	$1,586	$39,247,234	4	Annapurna
14	If Beale Street Could Talk	$1,645,507	-32%	1,018	0	$1,616	$10,461,067	6	Annapurna
15	Second Act	$670,000	-60%	1,051	-630	$637	$37,775,193	6	STX Entertainment
16	Replicas	$450,000	-81%	2,329	0	$193	$3,675,873	2	Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

LIMITED (100 — 999)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Dragon Ball Super: Broly	$10,657,442	—	467	—	$22,821	$21,077,471	1	FUNimation Entertainment
2	Green Book	$2,263,000	5%	912	170	$2,481	$41,974,991	10	Universal Pictures
3	The Favourite	$1,025,000	-8%	517	5	$1,983	$23,014,025	9	Fox Searchlight
4	A Star is Born	$639,000	-43%	415	21	$1,540	$204,699,733	16	Warner Bros.
5	Mary Queen of Scots	$370,000	-57%	405	-424	$914	$16,046,509	7	Focus Features
6	Instant Family	$265,000	6%	253	-71	$1,047	$67,030,232	10	Paramount Pictures
7	Creed II	$238,802	-17%	525	170	$455	$115,231,419	9	MGM / Warner Bros
8	Perfect Strangers	$185,000	-56%	132	0	$1,402	$737,702	2	Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
9	The Wife	$88,718	-21%	115	-41	$771	$8,503,929	23	Sony Pictures Classics

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Stan & Ollie	$391,455	360%	84	71	$4,660	$789,376	4	Sony Pictures Classics
2	Cold War	$293,195	201%	39	29	$7,518	$748,028	5	Amazon Studios
3	Free Solo	$264,400	-68%	98	-65	$2,698	$13,123,937	17	National Geographic Entertainment
4	Destroyer	$150,747	1%	50	23	$3,015	$636,831	4	Annapurna Pictures
5	Capernaum	$43,278	-14%	17	2	$2,546	$307,221	6	Sony Pictures Classics
6	Who Will Write Our History	$12,719	—	1	—	$12,719	$12,719	1	Abramorama
7	The Heiresses	$11,288	—	2	—	$5,644	$14,216	1	Distrib Films US
8	The World Before Your Feet	$6,900	-56%	10	-1	$690	$180,024	9	Greenwich Entertainment
9	An Acceptable Loss	$5,103	—	1	—	$5,103	$5,103	1	IFC Films

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