Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ & ‘Venom’

The fourth quarter of 2018 is poised for a strong start as this week’s report takes an early look at the prospects of two October 5 releases.

A Star Is Born
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

Social media buzz is steadily growing for this remake thanks to strong trailer reception over the summer. The mega-star power of director/actor Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga could prove to be irresistible for audiences even beyond their fans. If award season contention follows, staying power wouldn’t be hard to develop — especially considering the renaissance of successful box office runs for musicals in recent years. The breakout potential of this one is hard to ignore right now, putting current forecasts in bullish territory.

Venom
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

Since this film has no connection to the current Spider-Man in Disney’s sprawling Marvel Cinematic Universe, its biggest asset will be its star — Tom Hardy — who is compiling an impressive list of opening weekend performances (his last three starring or co-starring wide releases each opened north of $39 million domestically). Venom, of course, is one of the most popular anti-heroes in comic book history, so long-time fans of the character will provide additional opening weekend ammo.

While Venom‘s social media conversation is on fire currently, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments is much lower than we’d like to see as many fans are concerned with news that the film underwent extensive re-shoots and will be rated PG-13 — eschewing the more mature and graphic elements of the character in favor of a teen-friendly rating. In an era where Deadpool and Logan have proven the validity of comic book characters being allowed to stay true to their R-rated roots, that provides some concern among fans — and, by extension, long-term playability — until we get an idea of what actual word of mouth will be like.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Opening	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/15/2018	Crazy Rich Asians	$14,500,000	12%	$47,000,000	12%	3,200	Warner Bros.
8/17/2018	Alpha	$7,000,000	-13%	$20,000,000	-12%	2,500	Sony / Studio 8
8/17/2018	Mile 22	$18,000,000	6%	$55,000,000	6%	3,400	STX
8/24/2018	A.X.L.	$1,750,000		$4,400,000		1,700	Global Road
8/24/2018	The Happytime Murders	$15,500,000		$40,500,000		2,800	STX
8/24/2018	Searching	n/a		n/a		2,000	Sony / Screen Gems
8/29/2018	Operation Finale	$6,000,000	NEW	$19,000,000	NEW		MGM
8/31/2018	Kin	$5,500,000	-8%	$13,800,000	-8%		Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018	Ya Veremos	n/a		n/a			Pantelion
9/7/2018	God Bless the Broken Road	n/a		n/a			Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018	The Nun	$40,000,000		$96,000,000			Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018	Peppermint	$12,000,000		$33,500,000			STX Entertainment
9/14/2018	The Predator (2018)	$28,000,000		$65,000,000			Fox
9/14/2018	A Simple Favor	$14,000,000		$40,000,000			Lionsgate
9/14/2018	Unbroken: Path to Redemption	$2,000,000		$4,900,000			Pure Flix
9/14/2018	White Boy Rick	$7,500,000		$24,000,000			Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018	Fahrenheit 11/9	n/a		n/a			Briarcliff
9/21/2018	The House with a Clock In Its Walls	$24,000,000		$79,000,000			Universal
9/21/2018	Life Itself	n/a		n/a			Amazon Studios
9/28/2018	Hell Fest	$9,500,000		$22,000,000			Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018	Little Women (2018)	n/a		n/a			Pure Flix
9/28/2018	Night School (2018)	$17,500,000		$55,000,000			Universal
9/28/2018	Smallfoot	$23,000,000		$80,000,000			Warner Bros.
10/5/2018	A Star Is Born	$30,000,000	NEW	$117,000,000	NEW		Warner Bros.
10/5/2018	Venom (2018)	$40,000,000	NEW	$85,000,000	NEW		Sony / Columbia

---

Contact us for information on subscribing to Boxoffice’s complete suite of forecasting and data services.

The post Long Range Tracking: ‘A Star Is Born’ & ‘Venom’ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.

from BoxOffice Pro