August is set to kick off with what could be a close race for the top spot at the box office between a new release and last week’s top film, Mission: Impossible – Fallout.
Disney’s Christopher Robin
Opening Weekend Range: $26 – 35 million
Multiple generations of Winnie the Pooh fans are expected to help turn this live action imagining into a successful debut. Twitter activity has trended far ahead of comparable titles like Peter Rabbit and Pete’s Dragon, while Facebook growth well outstrips that of the latter. Traditional tracking suggests the film could match or exceed the debut of Disney’s previous live-action effort earlier this year, A Wrinkle In Time, while the staggered overseas release could position Christopher Robin for a healthy global run.
Disney expects a domestic weekend in the high $20 millions to $30 million.
The Darkest Minds
Opening Weekend Range: $5 – 11 million
Unfortunately, the young adult novel adaptation craze of the 2000s and early 2010s has long faded, which is a driving factor behind Boxoffice’s forecasts. Social media buzz for this release is pacing significantly behind that of The 5th Wave, Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.
Fox expects a weekend around $10 million.
The Spy Who Dumped Me
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 18 million
Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon are the keys to helping this generate a strong female audience on opening weekend. While Twitter activity is fairly solid this week, it trails overall trends of films like Rough Night and Bad Moms — which opened on two opposite ends of the spectrum over the past two summers.
Lionsgate expects a weekend in the low teen million range.
Top 10 Projections
Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will earn approximately $118 million+. That would mark at least a 12 percent increase from the same frame last year when The Dark Tower and Kidnap debuted as part of an overall $105.4 million top ten market.
Weekend Forecast (Top 5)
Although slightly favoring Christopher Robin by a slim margin, we currently project this weekend’s race for first place between it and Mission: Impossible – Fallout will be too close to call until the weekend.
| Film | Distributor | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 5 | % Change from Last Wknd |
| Disney’s Christopher Robin | Disney | $31,500,000 | $31,500,000 | NEW |
| Mission: Impossible – Fallout | Paramount | $31,500,000 | $117,500,000 | -49% |
| The Spy Who Dumped Me | Lionsgate | $14,400,000 | $14,400,000 | NEW |
| Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! | Universal | $7,900,000 | $89,000,000 | -48% |
| The Equalizer 2 | Sony / Columbia | $7,500,000 | $78,200,000 | -46% |
| The Darkest Minds | Fox | $8,400,000 | $8,400,000 | NEW |
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The post Weekend Forecast: ‘Christopher Robin,’ ‘Spy Who Dumped Me,’ & ‘Darkest Minds’ Take On Reigning ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ appeared first on BoxOffice Pro.
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