Long Range Tracking: ‘Venom’ Revisited — Could It Set A New October Record?

Following a deeper dive into new data, we’re revisiting initial forecasts for Venom in a rare mid-week update.

Venom
Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 85 million (revised from $30 – 50 million)

In its first week of tracking on our data service Trailer Impact, the film has a registered very encouraging 91 percent Average Positive Interest and 14 percent Recall scores. Historical comparisons are limited at this time, making this an experimental aspect of current modeling scenarios, but it’s enough to push our initial forecasts into the realm of a potential (perhaps likely) October record opening weekend — a mark currently held by Gravity ($55.8 million).

The film’s second trailer — released in late July — is driving a stronger stream of online discussion among a passionate fan base than the first teaser indicated earlier this year. We continue to believe Tom Hardy’s presence is a major advantage for the film, while also remaining cautious in regard to Twitter sentiment and the potential for front-loading due to the character’s less family-friendly roots than other comic book adaptations.

For example, while overall mentions are well ahead of the same-point pace seen by Ant-Man and the Wasp, Justice League, Logan, Doctor Strange, and even Suicide Squad, the ratio of positive to negative comments registers significantly lower than each of those titles and matches more closely with the Fantastic Four reboot, according to Boxoffice Pro metrics. As such, key comp titles at this time run the gamut of potential outcomes, so ranges will probably be more volatile than usual for the genre leading up to release — making critical reception and reactions from early fan screenings even more important.

Meanwhile, we continue to see optimistic early trends for A Star Is Born and have slightly increased our overall forecast into even more bullish territory.

Check back tomorrow for our regular long range report with new additions slated for release on October 12.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date	Title	3-Day Wide Opening	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/24/2018	A.X.L.	$1,750,000		$4,400,000		n/a	Global Road
8/24/2018	The Happytime Murders	$15,500,000		$40,500,000		3,000	STX
8/24/2018	Searching	n/a		n/a		n/a	Sony / Screen Gems
8/29/2018	Operation Finale	$6,000,000		$19,000,000		2,300	MGM
8/31/2018	Kin	$5,000,000	-9%	$12,600,000	-9%	1,500	Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018	Ya Veremos	n/a		n/a		350	Pantelion
9/7/2018	God Bless the Broken Road	$1,000,000	NEW	$2,500,000	NEW		Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018	The Nun	$40,000,000		$96,000,000			Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018	Peppermint	$12,000,000		$33,500,000			STX Entertainment
9/14/2018	The Predator (2018)	$28,000,000		$65,000,000			Fox
9/14/2018	A Simple Favor	$14,000,000		$40,000,000			Lionsgate
9/14/2018	Unbroken: Path to Redemption	$2,000,000		$4,900,000			Pure Flix
9/14/2018	White Boy Rick	$7,500,000		$24,000,000			Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018	Fahrenheit 11/9	n/a		n/a			Briarcliff
9/21/2018	The House with a Clock In Its Walls	$24,000,000		$79,000,000			Universal
9/21/2018	Life Itself	n/a		n/a			Amazon Studios
9/28/2018	Hell Fest	$9,500,000		$22,000,000			Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018	Little Women (2018)	n/a		n/a			Pure Flix
9/28/2018	Night School (2018)	$17,500,000		$55,000,000			Universal
9/28/2018	Smallfoot	$23,000,000		$80,000,000			Warner Bros.
10/5/2018	A Star Is Born	$30,000,000		$140,000,000	20%		Warner Bros.
10/5/2018	Venom (2018)	$65,000,000	63%	$135,000,000	59%		Sony / Columbia

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